Well, struggled again yesterday and lost back what scant amount I won Friday. Thank God for the Spurs, really cleaned my week up a little bit. Went 4-7 and blew 375 yesterday. Can't get the ball bouncing, but back to try again today... Now 43-57-3 on the season and down 4978 in baseball.
Hard to try to stop a raging bull but that's what I'm doing today. Philly has won 12 of 13 and is the hottest team in baseball. But I made that game a lot lower and there is value on the Reds, especially if you think they won't get swept (it last happened in early May of 2005 at the hands of St. Louis). This will be the first series in seven the Reds have lost at home and last night was the first time they had lost consecutive home games in '06.
THe play: Reds plus 130 - 300 to win 390
I made the Pitt total a little lower but VanOVER is back there today, he of the 7-1 O/U variety. When you factor in Moehler, hard not to like runs even with these two rag-tag offenses. A little scared because Snell is going so good (5 ER in his last 25 2/3 IP over four starts) so I'll go against the 'correlated' situation and just make two small bets.
THe plays: FLA/PIT OVER 9 -115 (230 to win 200)
Pittsburgh -155 - 310 to win 200 and Pittsburgh -1.5 runs +137 - 200 to win 274
I made Pedro slightly higher against Davis. A little scared to go back to the well after the debacle on Tuesday night but the price seems right here. Davis has struggled in four lifetime starts vs. the Mets, going 1-1 with a 6.85 ERA. In '05, he was tagged for 12 runs and 12 hits (five of which were homers) with 10 walks in just 9 2/3 IP. Let's try the Mets to win the series.
The play: Mets -160 - 320 to win 200
Mets -1.5 runs plus 107 - 300 to win 321 (incredible value here in my opinion)
Nice win by the Rockies last night, bailed me out of trouble. Now Holbrook does the finale in Houston. He's called strikes just 58.9 percent this year en route to a 4-0 O/U record. Who am I to buck the trend? Pettitte has been throwing too many pitches early in games and with the tight strike zone, that figures to continue today. Francis has been great as of late but he's never had five quality starts in a row.
The play: COL/HOU OVER 8.5 EVEN - 500 to win 500
Side of the day is Detroit. Who is Cleveland to be favored over this team? Maroth has been rolling - his last start was at the Metrodome, where he always struggles, so throw it out. Maroth is 7-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 11 starts vs. CLE in his career and is undefeated on the road, going 5-0 with a 2.63 ERA in six starts. This season, Maroth has allowed four runs or less in all six starts and had arguably his best outing against the Indians on April 16, when he gave up three hits with five strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win.
Johnson moves up a spot in the Tribe rotation to seperate the sinkerballers. He's now facing his teammates from '04 and '05, and they should know him well enough to hit him. Also, Johnson is just 0-2 with a 9.95 ERA in his last four starts.
THe play: Detroit plus 104 - 600 to win 624
ANother case of MLB having fun with Towers, giving him a second UNDER UMP this week. The Jays keep sending him out there every fifth day, despite the fact he's accounted for SEVEN of their 16 losses... Towers has an ERA of over 10 and it's gonna be really hard to bet him UNDER, even with Foster (10.14 RPG, 64.8 strikes, 3-4 O/U). I had the Devil Rays favored here so I'm taking a nibble there and with the 2-team parlay of home and UNDER.
The plays: Tampa Bay -103 - 206 to win 200
UNDER 10 plus 103 - 200 to win 206
2team parlay Tampa -105 and UNDER 10.5 -130 - 200 to win 490.84
Hear me out on this last play. Seattle goes to Anaheim. Pens no doubt tired from the extra-inning work last night. BUT... Meche and Weaver are capable of putting in good work against these batters. I made this total a smidge lower and the UMP doesn't APPEAR to be a big factor (his stats in 2006, 8.57 rpg, 61.2 strikes, 2-4 O/U)...
However, a closer look is awfully telling. Meals has done six Seattle games since the start of 2005. Wow, that's an unusually high number for an ump to be behind the plate for one team. Five of those have gone UNDER the total. He's also done Anaheim four times in the same span, with three of those having been UNDERS. He's done Weaver twice in his career, both U, and Meche six times, four of which have gone U. Interesting stats here, and some that I cannot ignore. I'll bite.
THe play: UNDER 9.5 -116 - 464 to win 400
Good luck all!
:toast:
Hard to try to stop a raging bull but that's what I'm doing today. Philly has won 12 of 13 and is the hottest team in baseball. But I made that game a lot lower and there is value on the Reds, especially if you think they won't get swept (it last happened in early May of 2005 at the hands of St. Louis). This will be the first series in seven the Reds have lost at home and last night was the first time they had lost consecutive home games in '06.
THe play: Reds plus 130 - 300 to win 390
I made the Pitt total a little lower but VanOVER is back there today, he of the 7-1 O/U variety. When you factor in Moehler, hard not to like runs even with these two rag-tag offenses. A little scared because Snell is going so good (5 ER in his last 25 2/3 IP over four starts) so I'll go against the 'correlated' situation and just make two small bets.
THe plays: FLA/PIT OVER 9 -115 (230 to win 200)
Pittsburgh -155 - 310 to win 200 and Pittsburgh -1.5 runs +137 - 200 to win 274
I made Pedro slightly higher against Davis. A little scared to go back to the well after the debacle on Tuesday night but the price seems right here. Davis has struggled in four lifetime starts vs. the Mets, going 1-1 with a 6.85 ERA. In '05, he was tagged for 12 runs and 12 hits (five of which were homers) with 10 walks in just 9 2/3 IP. Let's try the Mets to win the series.
The play: Mets -160 - 320 to win 200
Mets -1.5 runs plus 107 - 300 to win 321 (incredible value here in my opinion)
Nice win by the Rockies last night, bailed me out of trouble. Now Holbrook does the finale in Houston. He's called strikes just 58.9 percent this year en route to a 4-0 O/U record. Who am I to buck the trend? Pettitte has been throwing too many pitches early in games and with the tight strike zone, that figures to continue today. Francis has been great as of late but he's never had five quality starts in a row.
The play: COL/HOU OVER 8.5 EVEN - 500 to win 500
Side of the day is Detroit. Who is Cleveland to be favored over this team? Maroth has been rolling - his last start was at the Metrodome, where he always struggles, so throw it out. Maroth is 7-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 11 starts vs. CLE in his career and is undefeated on the road, going 5-0 with a 2.63 ERA in six starts. This season, Maroth has allowed four runs or less in all six starts and had arguably his best outing against the Indians on April 16, when he gave up three hits with five strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win.
Johnson moves up a spot in the Tribe rotation to seperate the sinkerballers. He's now facing his teammates from '04 and '05, and they should know him well enough to hit him. Also, Johnson is just 0-2 with a 9.95 ERA in his last four starts.
THe play: Detroit plus 104 - 600 to win 624
ANother case of MLB having fun with Towers, giving him a second UNDER UMP this week. The Jays keep sending him out there every fifth day, despite the fact he's accounted for SEVEN of their 16 losses... Towers has an ERA of over 10 and it's gonna be really hard to bet him UNDER, even with Foster (10.14 RPG, 64.8 strikes, 3-4 O/U). I had the Devil Rays favored here so I'm taking a nibble there and with the 2-team parlay of home and UNDER.
The plays: Tampa Bay -103 - 206 to win 200
UNDER 10 plus 103 - 200 to win 206
2team parlay Tampa -105 and UNDER 10.5 -130 - 200 to win 490.84
Hear me out on this last play. Seattle goes to Anaheim. Pens no doubt tired from the extra-inning work last night. BUT... Meche and Weaver are capable of putting in good work against these batters. I made this total a smidge lower and the UMP doesn't APPEAR to be a big factor (his stats in 2006, 8.57 rpg, 61.2 strikes, 2-4 O/U)...
However, a closer look is awfully telling. Meals has done six Seattle games since the start of 2005. Wow, that's an unusually high number for an ump to be behind the plate for one team. Five of those have gone UNDER the total. He's also done Anaheim four times in the same span, with three of those having been UNDERS. He's done Weaver twice in his career, both U, and Meche six times, four of which have gone U. Interesting stats here, and some that I cannot ignore. I'll bite.
THe play: UNDER 9.5 -116 - 464 to win 400
Good luck all!
:toast:
