Money Management question/opinions?

Iceman · May 14, 2006

I know everyone here likes to talk about money management and kelly criterion, etc....

Well here is the scoop: I have made 497 plays on baseball (parlays, runlines, monelylines, totals and some scalps) this year and have won about 3% on money wagered. (Actually it's around 5.5% on the plays I capped and shopped hard core on. The rest I have tested some methods/styles and broke around dead even, lowering my ROI.)

Would you bet 3% of your bankroll? Is that proper Kelly or what is the considered proper amount? I do play alot of plays nightly (average 10-12 plays a nite).

I have only been betting less than 1% of my bankroll and don't plan on changing because I am not sure that 500 plays is enough to consider myself a winning player, nor do I have the stomach for that big of bet size (6X more than my current bet).

So the 2 questions are: 1) is 500 plays enough to get an idea of future results 2) What would a pro ( I know I am not close to one) bet size be if he had these results to work with (3% ROI and lots of nightly plays.).

Any opinions welcome, just a boring Sunday nite and looking for somehting to talk about that always is interesting to me. :toast:

fathead · May 14, 2006

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

Good Kelly calculator.

Budworth22 · May 14, 2006

Ice, a 3 unit bet would be 6x MORE than your current bet, or would be it 6x your current bet? I think we could help each other with stuff, hit me an electronic mail (my name at aol com) Have some interesting stuff a stathead shopper like you may be interested in.

Budworth22 · May 14, 2006

As an answer to your question, I think that is probably too high.

Are you converting your roi to a % on -110 plays and then plugging that into the kelley formula?

Iceman · May 14, 2006

Budworth22 said:
As an answer to your question, I think that is probably too high.

Are you converting your roi to a % on -110 plays and then plugging that into the kelley formula?

I am converting my ROI to a % on -110 plays but they are baseball plays. I would be a little less than 54% at -110 lines. I am not sure what the kelly method would say to bet.

Iceman · May 14, 2006

Budworth22 said:
Ice, a 3 unit bet would be 6x MORE than your current bet, or would be it 6x your current bet? I think we could help each other with stuff, hit me an electronic mail (my name at aol com) Have some interesting stuff a stathead shopper like you may be interested in.

I will e-mail you early tomorrow morning. I am interested in throwing things back and forth with other gamblers. Thanks

Budworth22 · May 14, 2006

The theoretical problem I run into is that when betting multiple games at one time, when one finishes it would change the ACTUAL bet amount required for a game which you have already bet which is in progress.

PyRoCaPPer · May 14, 2006

If your starting bankroll is 500 dolllars, what is a good money management strategy??

Bourn · May 14, 2006

here are my results on the kelly criteria. first time ive ever seen that. im not sure if id put a lot of stalk into that. too many intangibles involved in gambling.

The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible. Professional gamblers typically take a less aggressive approach, and generally won't bet more than about 2.5% of their bankroll on any wager. In this case that would be $0.00.

Iceman · May 14, 2006

fathead said:
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

Good Kelly calculator.

wow. Seems a little out of whack!!!

Budworth22 · May 14, 2006

PyRo CaPPer said:
If your starting bankroll is 500 dolllars, what is a good money management strategy??

Others will disagree, but why not throw it on some nice sized moneyline dog parlays. You can't do shit with a 500 dollar bankroll simply because of fee's and not being able to be spread out enough between books.

Bourn · May 14, 2006

Budworth22 said:
Others will disagree, but why not throw it on some nice sized moneyline dog parlays. You can't do shit with a 500 dollar bankroll simply because of fee's and not being able to be spread out enough between books.

what do you mean spread enough out between books? so you can get the best line?

PyRoCaPPer · May 14, 2006

Im sure there has to be a way to make money with a 500 dollar bankroll!!!! All you have to do is reduce bet amounts, and then over time results will come....Right?

jeckll · May 14, 2006

I think you can do just fine with a $500 bankroll, but IMO you just have to be disciplined and make your unit size quite small. 1-2% of BR so $5-$10 per unit until you build up your BR then move it up

JMO

Bourn · May 14, 2006

ive made over $2500 with less than a $500 bankroll in less than a week. the ONLY way to do that is to win A LOT of those bets!!! then cash out cuz you will be disapointed if you dont/

PyRoCaPPer · May 14, 2006

I figure possible betting $20 dollars for huge plays and 10 for smaller plays

Budworth22 · May 14, 2006

ck, obviously you gotta keep the unit size relative, however I was more referring to to not being able to keep money in enough accounts to get that best line and go from 53 to 55%. Try depositing like $31 bucks lately, then WD'ing 71 bucks, etc. The FEE'S relative to that bankroll are too heavy.

PyRoCaPPer · May 14, 2006

Bourn said:
ive made over $2500 with less than a $500 bankroll in less than a week. the ONLY way to do that is to win A LOT of those bets!!! then cash out cuz you will be disapointed if you dont/

Bourn, what type of wagers were u makin on games during this spree???

jeckll · May 14, 2006

Budworth22 said:
ck, obviously you gotta keep the unit size relative, however I was more referring to to not being able to keep money in enough accounts to get that best line and go from 53 to 55%. Try depositing like $31 bucks lately, then WD'ing 71 bucks, etc. The FEE'S relative to that bankroll are too heavy.

AH right gotcha

But especially say if you're playing Baseball you can get away really with only having 2-4 outs. There may be 1-2 games per week you won't get the best line on but if you have accounts at the following books:

5Dimes
Mansion
Matchbook
Pinny

I tend to think you'll find the best line for MLB on 95% of games if not more. $125 at each shop isn't a bad deposit with bonuses, etc.

PacMan_2006 · May 14, 2006

ice_man

WRIF or WJLB?

For me, it varies by sport since I do better at some than others. It's been said before and is worth repeating, a three percent wager will increase your your account over time substantially (provided you hit 54/55%+).