Rough one yesterday. Went 3-10 and blew through another 1666 yesterday. Now sitting at 46-67-3 on the season and down 6644 in a couple of weeks of 2006 ball. Have plowed through a good deal of my MLB bankroll. Will tone it down this next week and try to survive through the Preakness, when I'll win a lot of matchups and be able to bet my regular amounts again.
Wire had some words of encouragement for me last night. I thanked him.
Here is what he said:
"I think you are a great capper. That having been said I was wondering when you are going to start actually capping baseball. I think you are using the same info and criteria to decide on your picks that you do in setting your lines. There is one helluva difference in doing research to set a line and doing research in picking a winner of that same game. You say that you have a game set at such and such a price and if the actual price is different then you will bet it for the value. I understand that thought process but I think you are missing some critical info in trying to beat that line and make the bet.
What I'm saying is that I don't begin to understand what you know about looking at games to set the line. You are the hands down the expert there. But setting the line and beating it are two different animals. I look at a game and weigh the pitchers, the hitters, the pens, the park, the wind, and the umpire. You take some or all of those into effect to set the line but you seem to be looking for the variance. I'm looking to see who has a clear cut advantage. It doesn't matter to me in the least if the pitcher I think will win the game is set at -120 or -250. If I think that guy and his team are going to win then I bet it. If I see a total at 9 or below and pitchers, hitters, park, and umpires that say it's going over then over is the bet. You know me well enough to know that I am in no way trying to insult you. But I wonder if you shouildn't use that great capping skill you have and just beat the bookies to death with it instead of trying to crossover to the line setting aspect. In my opinion your job is interfering with your capping ability.
I am speaking only in baseball now because I'm sure in other sports you don't run into these issues and what you do for the line translates wonderfully to picking a winner. Baseball is a very different and foreign animal and what we do for that doesn't crossover into other sports.
Hope you will look at this in the spirit it was written. I just know you are one of the best I have ever seen and I perceive you are trying to do two things at once and one of those intereferes with the other. If nothing else it's something to think about."
My response was as follows:
Thanks for the words Wire. I think you might be onto something in the bases. In other sports, it's a different thing. In baseball, it's not.
Every once in awhile something makes a bet, a bet... Today, they bet the Yankees up to a ridiculous price. I had to bet Oakland. I won it, but I didn't have to.
I've lost far more of those than I've won, just betting a game cause it's way off from my line.
What if I make a bad line? What am I doing to not get the money?
I'm not trying to go such-and-such percent. If I am anywhere near 50, I should make money in baseball the way I bet. Some (Tampa U today, Reds), I just caught bad breaks.
However, some of these games are not even close.
I'll try not to lose any more sleep over it until I can come up with a better solultion. My job is to create usable numbers. It's hard to just quit when I know the steady income will always be there for something I am good at and love to do. But it sure sucks if they're unusable for me to bet from April until August. What do I do then?
Only one for today. Going with the correlated parlay. Tomko is the most consistent starter going out there for the Dodgers on a daily basis, a bit of a surprise. However, he is a fly-ball pitcher going to Coors Field, where he's 0-4 with an 8.28 ERA.
Meanwhile, Fogg now has control of his fastball, proving that in St. Lous last time by keeping the Cardinals (a team that had owned him) to one run and six hits in seven innings of his last start. His ERA is below 4 against LA and the Rockies have been grinding out low-scoring wins, especially at home, where they've played 'small-ball' all season.
Every time the Dodgers have gotten to .500 in the last month, they've spit the bit. In fact, LA is 1-9 this season in games where their record is .500 and have lost 7 straight in that role (that includes opening day, when they were 0-0, haha)... point is, they just haven't found a way to get over the hump and I'm not about to try to make them do it against a pitcher and a team I respect. Colorado 2-10 UNDER in May so far.
The play:
2team parlay LA/COL U 11 -105 and COL -103 - 300 to win 852
THat's all for me unless an ump comes flying out of the bushes later...
GL!
Wire had some words of encouragement for me last night. I thanked him.
Here is what he said:
"I think you are a great capper. That having been said I was wondering when you are going to start actually capping baseball. I think you are using the same info and criteria to decide on your picks that you do in setting your lines. There is one helluva difference in doing research to set a line and doing research in picking a winner of that same game. You say that you have a game set at such and such a price and if the actual price is different then you will bet it for the value. I understand that thought process but I think you are missing some critical info in trying to beat that line and make the bet.
What I'm saying is that I don't begin to understand what you know about looking at games to set the line. You are the hands down the expert there. But setting the line and beating it are two different animals. I look at a game and weigh the pitchers, the hitters, the pens, the park, the wind, and the umpire. You take some or all of those into effect to set the line but you seem to be looking for the variance. I'm looking to see who has a clear cut advantage. It doesn't matter to me in the least if the pitcher I think will win the game is set at -120 or -250. If I think that guy and his team are going to win then I bet it. If I see a total at 9 or below and pitchers, hitters, park, and umpires that say it's going over then over is the bet. You know me well enough to know that I am in no way trying to insult you. But I wonder if you shouildn't use that great capping skill you have and just beat the bookies to death with it instead of trying to crossover to the line setting aspect. In my opinion your job is interfering with your capping ability.
I am speaking only in baseball now because I'm sure in other sports you don't run into these issues and what you do for the line translates wonderfully to picking a winner. Baseball is a very different and foreign animal and what we do for that doesn't crossover into other sports.
Hope you will look at this in the spirit it was written. I just know you are one of the best I have ever seen and I perceive you are trying to do two things at once and one of those intereferes with the other. If nothing else it's something to think about."
My response was as follows:
Thanks for the words Wire. I think you might be onto something in the bases. In other sports, it's a different thing. In baseball, it's not.
Every once in awhile something makes a bet, a bet... Today, they bet the Yankees up to a ridiculous price. I had to bet Oakland. I won it, but I didn't have to.
I've lost far more of those than I've won, just betting a game cause it's way off from my line.
What if I make a bad line? What am I doing to not get the money?
I'm not trying to go such-and-such percent. If I am anywhere near 50, I should make money in baseball the way I bet. Some (Tampa U today, Reds), I just caught bad breaks.
However, some of these games are not even close.
I'll try not to lose any more sleep over it until I can come up with a better solultion. My job is to create usable numbers. It's hard to just quit when I know the steady income will always be there for something I am good at and love to do. But it sure sucks if they're unusable for me to bet from April until August. What do I do then?
Only one for today. Going with the correlated parlay. Tomko is the most consistent starter going out there for the Dodgers on a daily basis, a bit of a surprise. However, he is a fly-ball pitcher going to Coors Field, where he's 0-4 with an 8.28 ERA.
Meanwhile, Fogg now has control of his fastball, proving that in St. Lous last time by keeping the Cardinals (a team that had owned him) to one run and six hits in seven innings of his last start. His ERA is below 4 against LA and the Rockies have been grinding out low-scoring wins, especially at home, where they've played 'small-ball' all season.
Every time the Dodgers have gotten to .500 in the last month, they've spit the bit. In fact, LA is 1-9 this season in games where their record is .500 and have lost 7 straight in that role (that includes opening day, when they were 0-0, haha)... point is, they just haven't found a way to get over the hump and I'm not about to try to make them do it against a pitcher and a team I respect. Colorado 2-10 UNDER in May so far.
The play:
2team parlay LA/COL U 11 -105 and COL -103 - 300 to win 852
THat's all for me unless an ump comes flying out of the bushes later...
GL!
