How much VALUE do you need to pull the trigger on a baseball wager?

Iceman · May 16, 2006

For me after I make my line, I look for 15 cents off my number for underdogs and 20 cents off to bet a favorite(more of an edge the higher the ML). I have some filters in there that can veto a bet.

If my bet has the ok I try to find lines a nickel better than Pinny (very hard) early in day. When it gets close to game time I take the best price availbile. The only time I stray from this line shopping is if I feel the line will move alot against me (mostly overnight) or a team barely qualifies for a bet (15 cents off for a dog, 20 cents for a favorite) and a few cents movement and the bet is gone than i will pull the trigger to avoid losing out on making the wager.

Saving a few dollars on each play adds up ALOT more than some think. I have made over 500 plays so far and if I have saved/earned 2 bucks more a bet than that is 1k and that is being VERY cautious in my estimate. Having a great line also is a confidence thing for me. I have a bet I like and a GREAT price to go with it.

Iceman · May 16, 2006

bump. Maybe should have posted this in the baseball forum!!!

Fishhead · May 16, 2006

A lot!

Very conservative by nature.

beetman · May 16, 2006

Cents are not created equal. A +115 dog that should be +100 is a much larger edge than a +215 dog that should be +200.

Iceman · May 16, 2006

beetman said:
Cents are not created equal. A +115 dog that should be +100 is a much larger edge than a +215 dog that should be +200.

I understand that, that is why I posted that I needed more of an edge for a higher Moneyline

jeckll · May 16, 2006

I'd say average .20 but I'll play dogs that are off by as little as .10

Bluemyboy · May 16, 2006

If I think it has line value I play it. There is not much I think has value though.

ganchrow · May 17, 2006

ice man said:
For me after I make my line, I look for 15 cents off my number for underdogs and 20 cents off to bet a favorite(more of an edge the higher the ML).

You might want to start looking at the % edge.

Calculate % edge like this:

First convert your own number (call it N) into a percentage win probability (call it P) as follows:
For N < -100:
P = -N/(100-N)
For N >= 100:
P = 100/(100+N)

And then, for a casino line (call it 'L') <-100:
% edge = -[P*100/L + (1-P)]
For L >= 100:
% edge = P*L/100 - (1-P)

So if you've determined that a line should be -130 (implying a win probability of 130/230 ≈ 56.5%), but the book's offering it at -110, then your expected % edge is -(56.5%*100/-110 + (1-56.5%)) ≈ 7.9%.

If you've determined that a line should be +200 (implying a win probability of 100/300 ≈ 33.3%), but the book's offering it at +220, then your expected % edge is 33.3%*220/100 - (1-33.3%) ≈ 6.7%.

So in this particular instance the 20c difference between your fave line and the book fave line implies a great expected profit than the 20c difference between your dog line and the book dog line.