What System Are You Working On?

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SSI

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anybody got anything hot right now... i had the (-1.5 run) thing on road teams going, to start the year but have recently dropped it (at about the break even point)... it had alot of possibilities but i was never really big on the progression part of it.. Progression's are ok, within reason but in alot of ways are bankroll busters..

I am constantly working on new things, especially with baseball ---- as there are many possibilities...

Currently working on a ML dog system, with a goal of hitting 50%.. been toying with it for 3 days now, and its only 8-10 for a (+0.03), so roughly break even..

anybody got anything and willing to share..

also always toying with mathematics and totals..
 
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got One For You...

i Always Play Lefty Vs Lefty Unders, Usually Is About 70% For Most Of The Year, Then Tails Off Towards The End To About Break Even Point.

this Year It Sucks, A Few Games Under. Worst In 4 Years.

i Have Learned That If It Is A Lefty Vs Lefty Matchup

take The Over If....

go To Cbssportsline And Check The Pitchers Era Vs The Opp...

if Both Pitchers Have An Era Over 5.00 + Vs The Team, take The Over...wins At A High Rate Every Year.
 

30 point quarters
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how high is high win rate beating vegas? mid 60's or even higher? just wanna get an idea of what the % is like
 

"It's better to eat shit than to not eat at all."
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right now I'm using a series system called "adapt and overcome" where at first I was taking every team who has been at home or on the road and is playing a team that is just going on the road or just going back home. When I played every team I was up only about 1 unit. Now I only play selective series that fit the system and I'm up 30 units right now, haven't lost a 3 game series yet, knock on wood.
 

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SSI, I always seem to be working on beating the runlines. Using the cleveland-kc game for an example. Clevelands chances of winning outright is 66.6%(using a no-vig ML odds) and then coming up with a figure of the game being a 1 run game of 28.9%. So the chance of Cleveland winning by 2 is 47.4% which equates to a true runline of Cleveland-1 1/2 +112 but the RL odds are as of right now is Cleveland-1 1/2-105 so they would be a poor play and the KC +1 1/2 -105 a good bet. Just started to work on this so not sure if there is anything to this. Always enjoy your posts, good luck.
 

SSI

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nice, thanks.. always love looking at new ideas... ive gambled for 20yrs now and i never tire, researching new things... the internet has made it alot easier..

if you can win 1/2 your games with ML dogs, you can get rich over time, with a long grinding process..

ive monitored and used this concept in the nba playoffs this year, currently the one that im using is: 12-12 (+8 units), nice win on clev last night..
 

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i'm using a multiple regression line for totals and for every 0.5 the line is off...i lay a unit on that total.

yesterday had:

Dodgers/Rockies UNDER 11 (+100) for 4 units because the projected line was 9 (11-9 = 2...2/.5 = 4 units).

all of the other lines were within 0.5 of the vegas line so that was the only play. today i have 5 plays with this system so we will see how it does in selecting value.
 

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Toddy2Hotty said:
right now I'm using a series system called "adapt and overcome" where at first I was taking every team who has been at home or on the road and is playing a team that is just going on the road or just going back home. When I played every team I was up only about 1 unit. Now I only play selective series that fit the system and I'm up 30 units right now, haven't lost a 3 game series yet, knock on wood.

more like "knock on cowbell"!!! :lolBIG:
 

SSI

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maidenguy, you may be on to something there, especially if you are talking about PLUS juice.. i think there in, lies the key...

Toddy, good luck and i hope you continue to hit one of 3... however, be cautious with the progressions.. a few bad ones and that 30 units of profit, well you know...
 

SSI

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bznofx19, funny you mentioned that, they totals thing that im working on, is using the 1/2 run as the point to determine a potential play..

do you feel that if there were a way to develop a true mathematical total, that it could beat the books set total --- at a high enough %%% to be profitable long term and could it be done with all sports..

ive always felt that totals were weaker, than sides and could be exploited. but im searching for a true mathematical way..
 
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kobefan08 said:
how high is high win rate beating vegas? mid 60's or even higher? just wanna get an idea of what the % is like


IT WILL PAY YOUR BILLS, JUST KEEP TRACK FOR YOURSELF AND LET ME KNOW HOW IT TURNS OUT.:103631605
 

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for basketball...a quick easy way to get a mathmatical total that is similar to how vegas sets the line is to take both teams (pts a game for + pts against a game) - 194.

the 194 is the league's average "total"...by adding the 2 teams avg. totals and subtracting the league average (who they played to get those pf/pa averages) you get a good idea of what the pace of the game will be like.

baseball is much different because of 100s of other variables that can effect a total. if you can see how certain variables can effect a total then you can make a reasonable equation to project a total. this is what multiple regression allows me to do.
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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I am still playing the -1.5 system you started the season with. However, as you know, all along I have been playing some of the home teams when the crap of the league is on the road and it has worked out better than sticking with all the roadies. It is up ~$17 units for me, and that includes a -43 unit week, that miserable week of the 2 game sets and awful weekend. I, fortunately, didn't play Sunday which went 1-7 for -24 units. However, that is reflected in my record as I posted those plays before leaving for vacation and didn't take them down.

I am still convinced this is a good system and will continue to play it. Now that we have more games under our belt it should be easier to determine the teams to fade.
 

SSI

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i just couldnt ride the roller coaster any longer......


what if you played:

all road dogs with winning road records (ML)
all home dogs with winning home records (ML)

and flat bet everything for one unit each..
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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SSI said:
i just couldnt ride the roller coaster any longer......


what if you played:

all road dogs with winning road records (ML)
all home dogs with winning home records (ML)

and flat bet everything for one unit each..

Understandable.

NO idea, haven't done the research on it.
 

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Probably too simple but it has worked this year:
team vs. L or R (avg and obp)
starter vs. team
individuals vs. starter history
bullpen last ten games
i don't care about wins and losses, they really are kind of meaningless the way bullpens blow leads. look at Kazmir tonight, if you just look at the CWS getting 7 runs you will be mislead, you have to look at all the little stuff.
runners left on base, errors, pops umpire thread is great if you don't look at that you are wasting a lot of info. weather
 

*V Andrea Rincon *V
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Here is something that I have been playing and it has been doing very well. I know that people hate a progression style of betting but by playing this you have a oppurtunity after a game 1 loss to play a limited progression style of play. If you chose not to limit your bet amount is where the BIG payday takes place.

I take the worst road teams by ERA/Runs scored comparison for the last 20 games. (This is just now taking effect because of lack of games)
But I have made it to where they are giving up a average of 2 runs more than they are scoring.

I only play road trips of 6 games or more.

I then bet the home team -2.5 runs or -2. The juice then becomes +140 to+250 Or even more. It all just depends on the game.

If it loses I double up on the next game. Same thing. I just determine my feelings to play the -2 or -2.5 (-2 just gives a chance for the push)

Lets take Minnesota as an example for todays game as it was their first game on the road on this trip.

6.40 ERA/3.72 runs for= Diff 2.68 on the road 18 games

I played this game -2 +174 for Detroit

What I am betting is that a bad road team is going to lose by 3 or more runs on their road trip.

Look up some of these teams on thier road trips and see how many times they have lossed by more than 3 runs.

Pitt, KC, TB, Minn

They have been very poor on the road. And yes it will change and teams improve but that is why I am using the last 20 games.

After a win you can decide if you want to press it and go for another win during that road trip. I have won multiple times on 1 road trip all at positive juice.

This isn't something that I have to put a lot of effort into and is not my main way of making bets but it is something that is so simple to keep track of and I always have at least one team that I am going against.

Sometimes the very simple way is a easy way.

Good Luck.







 

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Hey Ssi-

Check Out My System Pitching Factor-- It Is About 60% Mtd +13 Units.. As Of Late I Have Been Doing Pretty Good With It!!
 

Oh boy!
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FullyEclipsed said:
Here is something that I have been playing and it has been doing very well. I know that people hate a progression style of betting but by playing this you have a oppurtunity after a game 1 loss to play a limited progression style of play. If you chose not to limit your bet amount is where the BIG payday takes place.

I take the worst road teams by ERA/Runs scored comparison for the last 20 games. (This is just now taking effect because of lack of games)
But I have made it to where they are giving up a average of 2 runs more than they are scoring.

I only play road trips of 6 games or more.

I then bet the home team -2.5 runs or -2. The juice then becomes +140 to+250 Or even more. It all just depends on the game.

If it loses I double up on the next game. Same thing. I just determine my feelings to play the -2 or -2.5 (-2 just gives a chance for the push)

Lets take Minnesota as an example for todays game as it was their first game on the road on this trip.

6.40 ERA/3.72 runs for= Diff 2.68 on the road 18 games

I played this game -2 +174 for Detroit

What I am betting is that a bad road team is going to lose by 3 or more runs on their road trip.

Look up some of these teams on thier road trips and see how many times they have lossed by more than 3 runs.

Pitt, KC, TB, Minn

They have been very poor on the road. And yes it will change and teams improve but that is why I am using the last 20 games.

After a win you can decide if you want to press it and go for another win during that road trip. I have won multiple times on 1 road trip all at positive juice.

This isn't something that I have to put a lot of effort into and is not my main way of making bets but it is something that is so simple to keep track of and I always have at least one team that I am going against.

Sometimes the very simple way is a easy way.

Good Luck.

FE:

I like the way you think (I like the ass on the girl in your avatar too!).

I've been thinking about doing something similar except with favorites. I first tought about taking the favorites with the largest margin of victory and betting the -1.5 RL. Then, tonight I just thought of perhaps taking the teams with the most number of games that won by 2 runs or more (not always the same as the team with the largest margin of victory).

I keep thinking about all those games that end up with the winner winning by 2 runs or more.
 

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Going with an alternate run system -1.5 for dogs, and focusing mostly on away dogs. It has only been 2 weeks so it is tough to say whether it work out in the long run.
 

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