9 Horse field for the Preakness...Does this favor Barbaro?

I think it does...less traffic and distractions

its almost like its being set up for him to win:smoking:

Yes bigtime!!

There is a chance that in the small field that he might not settle as he has a lot of speed but the shape of the race looks like he'll get a enough pace and get a good stalking trip from the 6 box. Go for home 3 out and all over - win by 5+ IMO.

I watched the post position draw yesterday and Barbaro will have speed on both sides of him, plus further inside speed on the rail and speed from the outside post. Watch carefully during the start of the race as he may get pinched back at the beginning.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>12th (6:10) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent>Preakness S. (G1) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>Distance: 1 3/16 Miles Surface: Dirt Open Age: 3 Year Olds Stakes </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>Purse $1,000,000. </TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Prg.#</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>PP</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Horse</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Jockey</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Trainer</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Wt.</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Claim $</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Equip.</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Med.</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center align=right bgColor=#666666>ML</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>1 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>1</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Like Now</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Gomez G K</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>McLaughlin Kiaran P</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>LA</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>12-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>2 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>2</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Platinum Couple</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Espinoza J L</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Lostritto Joseph A</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>50-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>3 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>3</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Hemingway's Key</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Rose J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Zito Nicholas P</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Blk-Off</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>LA</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>30-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>4 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>4</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Greeley's Legacy</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Migliore R</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Weaver George</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>20-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>5 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>5</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Brother Derek</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Solis A</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Hendricks Dan L</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>3-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>6 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>6</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Barbaro</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Prado E S</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Matz Michael R</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>LA</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>1-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>7 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>7</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Sweetnorthernsaint</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Desormeaux K J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Trombetta Michael J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>LA</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>4-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>8 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>8</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Bernardini</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Castellano J J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Albertrani Thomas</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>8-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>9 </TD><TD class=smContent align=left>9</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Diabolical</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Dominguez R A</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Klesaris Steve</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>126</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>LA</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>30-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>EXACTA, TRIFECTA & SUPERFECTA</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>2nd HALF OF THE GR. I DOUBLE (PIMLICO SPECIAL & PREAKNESS)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 12 & 13)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

oldmanTED said:

I watched the post position draw yesterday and Barbaro will have speed on both sides of him, plus further inside speed on the rail and speed from the outside post. Watch carefully during the start of the race as he may get pinched back at the beginning.

Click to expand...

I figure they've thought about this(i can picture BD coming out & jostling all 4 outside of him- unintendedly advantaging the rail horse) & will elect to rocket out the gate and sit just behind pacesetters, figuring he has superior speed to both BD & SNS(IMO he is able to deal with a faster AND pressured pace better than his main two contenders-- or at a very minimum they've NOT done that YET...I think his connections firmly believe this too, but what do i know)...

Because what i most worried about was a sealed track NOT being able to be opened up prior to Preakness AND one of the inferior speeds getting loose early for whatever the reason--& a fluke win....improbable, but....
As i don't believe BD & SNS will worry about the front, but will instead fixate on shadowing, maybe even gluing themselves to Barbaro....

Oy vey.......

Bernardini +1139 to win

D2bets said:

Bernardini +1139 to win

Click to expand...

You may get much better track odds on Bernardini then 11-1 on race day.

with barbaro, i worry about stamina. he likes 6-8 weeks between starts, here just 2 weeks. plus no value here, and history hates the big time favs in these races. i will play him in exotics, but he won't win, inho.

And the "Wiseguy" horse for whatever that may be worth is Brother Derek !!

oldmanTED said:

You may get much better track odds on Bernardini then 11-1 on race day.

Click to expand...

I hope so, i like him a lot-- but afraid he may not go higher than his ML...not trying to stalk you to disagree, btw.

now im hearing a 6 horse field??? anyone confirm that?

Dante said:

now im hearing a 6 horse field??? anyone confirm that?

Click to expand...

Just checked the Daily Racing Form and Preakness websites. Nothing showing. You sure that what you heard wasn't about the Pimlico Special on Friday which has only 6 entrants?

not Sure OMT...I could have the wrong race thanks for checking

docslep said:

with barbaro, i worry about stamina. he likes 6-8 weeks between starts, here just 2 weeks. plus no value here, and history hates the big time favs in these races. i will play him in exotics, but he won't win, inho.

Click to expand...

???

an undefeated colt has never lost the Preakness

trytrytry said:

???

an undefeated colt has never lost the Preakness

Click to expand...

Wow, I did not know that. Good info Try.

The amount of contenders has no bearing on Barbaro - Prado will put him right where he wants him at key points of race. Without a doubt the horse who benefits the most with the smaller field is Brother Derek. One more task for BD within this race which many might overlook is the way he manages Like Now down on the rail. He cannot just concern himself with Barbaro IMO. Barbaro on the other hand will just let it rip down the stretch regardless of where any other horse is.

Forget my sealed track nonsense-- looks now like weather will not play a factor that day.

Race shape potentially looks like a fairly moderate early pace with 3 frontrunners abreast-1/8/9(unless if the 9's jock does not want it 3-wide on the lead & decides to gun and try to secure the rail early), three stalkers abreast-6/7/8, followed by 3 plodders who do not belong in here & figure to trail far back early & even maybe the entire race.

Of the first three, the 9 will tire first, the 1 will hold on gamely, but the 8 will impose himself: he has a legitimate chance to play spoiler Captain Red to the 6's FuPeg IF he continues his impressive number leap improvements. In fact, the surest & most profitable play is to take the 8 @ Pk 'em over the 1 heads-up in matchups offered @ various books.

Win and place should go to to the 6 & 8-- & the main question will be whether the 1 will get the show over the 5 & 7...these latter two are in need of a rest / layup instead of a race right back: boggles my mind how folks think Barbaro cannot handle the race right back, but yet those two can.

The connections of the 8 inspire little confidence-- esp. the trainer, who's on the record as preferring to tuck back behind the speed, then moving outside: as if he was at Belmont instead. Also, don't know why so many figure the 5 & 7 to be battling for the lead from the git go...they're gonna want to rate & shadow the 6 primarily....

honzie said:

The amount of contenders has no bearing on Barbaro - Prado will put him right where he wants him at key points of race. Without a doubt the horse who benefits the most with the smaller field is Brother Derek. One more task for BD within this race which many might overlook is the way he manages Like Now down on the rail. He cannot just concern himself with Barbaro IMO. Barbaro on the other hand will just let it rip down the stretch regardless of where any other horse is.

Click to expand...

good stuff thanks for the insite

1 on rail 5 most likely 4 long shot 7 and 6 go with value always best

""boggles my mind how folks think Barbaro cannot handle the race right back, but yet those two can.""

BEST comment have seen in awhile....a true player..

however...it can also be said: what's to say one them can't run back....I know Barbaro will....think one of those two will also...