Some people fall into a trap when they think the sportsbooks are setting one.

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I have seen so many people talk themselves out of winning bets on this forum because they think that the sportsbooks are laying a trap.:lolBIG:

The following is the funniest line I read at this forum that always makes me laugh.

This line looks too good, the sportsbooks are setting a trap so I am going to either not bet this game at all or I am going to take the other side.

Thats ridiculous in my mind.

Have some confidence in your ability to cap a baseball game. If you see a game where the line is off, pound it!!!!!!! It does no good to go though the trouble of capping a baseball game and finding a huge advantage only to piss it away by saying the books are setting a trap.

I am not even 100% convinced that there is a such thing as a trap.

Lets not give the linemakers more credit than they deserve folks. They are human just like you and me. The sportsbooks dont make there dough based on how good there line is. They make there money based on the fact that most people dont understand the concept of money management. They know that 50% of there customers could not have a winning season money wise if they picked 80% winners.

It is not possiable for the books to have a sharp line on every game. The books have to take a stand on every play on the board, you dont. You can cherry pick these games, they cant.

Take that advantage and run with it. Dont think these people have supernatural powers that they dont have.

The only trap is when you think there is one and there isnt one and you lay off a good bet.
 

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I believe that whatever you call it....a trap or an 'off' line or a 'shaded' line or whatever: IF you think it looks too good to be true and you get that feeling that you want to sell your house and wager the proceeds on the game...that feeling of THIS LINE IS SO FAR OFF IT IS EASY!! Then, you can call it 'chopped liver' if you want: stay away from the side you like and maybe just stay away from the contest.

Further, if everyone is talking about the great line and how easy it looks and you agree with them: Shut down the computer and go outside to play with your kids or you dog. It'll save you money.

I don't believe in the trap but I really believe that when people think they see a 'trap' then they act as though it were a trap; they are doing the right thing regardless of what reason is behind an 'easy line.'

There are plenty of good wagers to be had. People don't have to hit every one of them. Be picky and remember that nothing is free and easy. Ever.

Good luck. tulsa
 

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While I do agree with your premise, I think that a trap is a very real thing. Linesmakers know teams that are heavily bet and in certain cases when they expect that team to lose they'll make the line seem almost too good to be true to the normal bettor.

Example, yesterday maybe? Or two days ago can't really remember TBay was favored over the White Sox with Kazmir on the hill. Granted Kazmir is one of the best young studs out there right now, but to most people, seeing the WS champs a dog to the perennial doormat of the MLB looks like a best bet. And what happens? TB wins by 5+.
 

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cklennon said:
While I do agree with your premise, I think that a trap is a very real thing. Linesmakers know teams that are heavily bet and in certain cases when they expect that team to lose they'll make the line seem almost too good to be true to the normal bettor.

Example, yesterday maybe? Or two days ago can't really remember TBay was favored over the White Sox with Kazmir on the hill. Granted Kazmir is one of the best young studs out there right now, but to most people, seeing the WS champs a dog to the perennial doormat of the MLB looks like a best bet. And what happens? TB wins by 5+.

That was a good line. Tampa should have been favored in that spot.
 

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There is NO such thing as a "trap" line. These people built skyscrapers setting these lines. They certainly hang up numbers that they "think" will provide 2-way, thats all. Besides they get bet into shape right quick anyway!

I LOL everytime i see some post that says, ole so an so is ONLY -25 on the road!!



:puppy:
 

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Maybe what I said was too much of a blanket statement.

If someone thinks the the WHITESOX at + money yesterday was too good to be true, they are simply not doing there homework. Tampa deserved to be the favorite in that spot.

What I am talking about is when you see a line with a big differential from what you have capped dont auto no-play the game because you think the books are setting a trap.
 

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The only real traps are spotted 'after' the game, its just a definition for a game that looked to easy to be true, and afterwards you find out it was.
 

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Trap is way way over used, and yes books most often put up a fair line to try to keep action semi-balanced. But if you think that they set lines to get 50% action both ways on EVERY game, then you're not paying attention. This isn't the 1950's. While most profits are just a function of vig and the bettors suicidal money management. The linesmakers do have resources to be able to out handicap the public and make alot more money by shading certain lines. Most lines do get "bet in shape" by the sharps if they are too far off, but those aren't the ones the books are taking a stand on. Tell tale sign of what I consider a true trap is one where the line barely budges even though Tom, Dick, and Harry are typing in all Caps about the game on the internet. Doesn't happen near as often as the internet geniuses like to proclaim, but it happens.
 

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This is a recurring problem where punters simplify Bookmakers opinions and reasons for their actions. Without going into detail for the umpteenth time, Bookmakers each get a certain portion of the cake and theres a pecking order which resembles a Pyramid. Its no good going by a Top dogs line if your only getting One Horse books so middle grade Books might form an opinion of their own or else charge heavy vig and hedge up the line. All Books get to know their Clientel and act accordingly, its impossible to know where the smart or live money will come from next so everyone has a trick or Two which lasts so long then the Buffalo move on and the game starts again. :drink:
 

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The SPORTSBOOKS don't lay the trap. The PLAYERS do. They OVVERATE superstars and have little concept of how to assign value to average, above average, and very good players. These "trap lines" (small road faves for instance) are merely the bookmaker not allowing itself to get crushed by the bigger player. They are fine taking action from a bunch of little guys who ovverate the square side.
 

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Journeyman said:
see Cubs line today, anyone who bet Cubs today should not be betting.

If you feel that strongly about people taking Chicago being dumb, you would be just as crazy not taking the Nationals. If the Cubs is a really dumb play at - money, that makes not taking Washington at + money even more dumb. You cant have - value on one side and not have + value on the other. The scales are never uneven. They are always =. A dumb play on one side means smart play on the other side every last time.
 

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CHOPTALK said:
If you feel that strongly about people taking Chicago being dumb, you would be just as crazy not taking the Nationals. If the Cubs is a really dumb play at - money, that makes not taking Washington at + money even more dumb. You cant have - value on one side and not have + value on the other. The scales are never uneven. They are always =. I dumb play on on side means smart play on the other side every last time.

Therein lies the Trap:missingte
 

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i agree there are no traps out there as we make our own traps, but on the other side of the coin there are smart money moves that can make you some coins for sure...gl.ck
 

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Journeyman said:
The only real traps are spotted 'after' the game, its just a definition for a game that looked to easy to be true, and afterwards you find out it was.

Good post. You said in about twenty words what it took me one hundred. tulsa
 

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CHOPTALK said:
If you feel that strongly about people taking Chicago being dumb, you would be just as crazy not taking the Nationals. If the Cubs is a really dumb play at - money, that makes not taking Washington at + money even more dumb. You cant have - value on one side and not have + value on the other. The scales are never uneven. They are always =. A dumb play on one side means smart play on the other side every last time.

Actually, this is incorrect.

Unless one or more sportsbooks are offering a juice-free price (or fair odds) on both sides, the scales are never even, i.e it is not a zero-sum game. If there is an overlay between both sides, then both sides should be bet, and a scalp or guaranteed + expected value (+EV) is gained. If there is any juice involved, then while one side might be "dumb" or -EV, it is not true that the other side is always +EV. Of course, if one side is significantly "dumb" then at some point, the other side is a good bet, especially at reduced juice.
 

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I should also say that its usually a non-zero sum game from the standpoint of two bettors betting different sides of the same game. Its a zero sum game from the standpoint of the book versus one player in which the player always must overcome the juice to win long term.
 

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ComptrBob said:
Actually, this is incorrect.

Unless one or more sportsbooks are offering a juice-free price (or fair odds) on both sides, the scales are never even, i.e it is not a zero-sum game. If there is an overlay between both sides, then both sides should be bet, and a scalp or guaranteed + expected value (+EV) is gained. If there is any juice involved, then while one side might be "dumb" or -EV, it is not true that the other side is always +EV. Of course, if one side is significantly "dumb" then at some point, the other side is a good bet, especially at reduced juice.

I did not say every bet had a right and a wrong side. What I said was if someone feels strongly enough to say anyone who takes team A is dumb and should quit betting means that they should feel that the other side is a smart play. If side A is dumb, that makes side B smart.

I agree with you 100% that there are many bets that fall into the catagory that you are talking about. Im talking about someone who has a strong opinion that a certain side is dumb, that should mean that the other side is automatically smart.

You cant have a dumb bet on one side, and not have smart bet on the other.

Im not talking about plays where there is no opionion on either side.
 

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