Need advice and some help

ClipJoint · May 20, 2006

I have never been a guy that scalps or tries for middles. I always handicap games and bet value. I am starting to think with the amounts I am playing these days (10-20 dimes a game), scalping and trying to hit a few middles might be worthwhile. I have had over $2,000,000 in action the past week alone. I think I need to start locking in profits in certain situations rather than riding out the value plays. Can I get some input from those of you that do this daily?

I jumped on an early line last night that has moved like crazy. I wish I could have put more down last night. Can you guys tell me what you would do with this ticket? The line is now White Sox -224/+206 comeback.

Do you ride out the play since you have a great line? Do you buy back and just ensure a profit? If you guys would post the exact move you would make in this situation, I would really appreciate it.

<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=accountHeader><TD align=left>Ticket</TD><TD align=left>Accepted</TD><TD align=left>Event</TD><TD align=left>Type</TD><TD align=left>Description</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>Risking</TD><TD align=middle><NOBR>To Win</NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=top noWrap>67370739-1
1

</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>1:42pm
19-May-06</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>10:20am
20-May-06</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>Baseball
Money</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left>Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox for Game</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>-184</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>5,520.00</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>3,000.00</TD></TR><TR class=hidden id=pitcher0><TD class=accountText colSpan=2></TD><TD class=accountText></TD><TD class=accountText noWrap align=left>MLB</TD><TD class=accountText align=left colSpan=4>R. Hill must start / F. Garcia must start</TD></TR><TR bgColor=black height=1 width="100"><TD colSpan=8></TD></TR><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=top noWrap>67410780-1
2

</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>6:58pm
19-May-06</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>10:20am
20-May-06</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>Baseball
Money</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left>Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox for Game</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>-188</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>18,800.00</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>10,000.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Kiss1 · May 20, 2006

What kind of solid advice are you expecting from posters whose average income I would estimate at about $50,000?

whalewager · May 20, 2006

posting what u play on the net is a lil dangerous dont u think?

whalewager · May 20, 2006

gl to u clip....

how do u like clips chances monday?

ClipJoint · May 20, 2006

Kiss1 said:
What kind of solid advice are you expecting from posters whose average income I would estimate at about $50,000?

I don't think income has much to do with intelligence. I am proof of that. :lolBIG:

This site has some of the most intelligent gamblers I have ever seen. I am 100% positive I can get some help and learn how to increase my hold %.

I have always been good with numbers and math, but I find myself struggling each time it comes down to crunch time and I need to make a move quickly to ensure a profit. Is there some sort of equation that figures this out quickly?

I am looking for any and all advice...not just the above situation. The situation I posted will be there until game time I have a feeling. But I would love to hear from guys that do this for a living on what the most profitable way of handling this situation would be. I have always just made my plays and then rode them out. It has worked for me, but I KNOW FOR A FACT that there are situations like this where I can increase my hold %.

If I buy some back, don't I end up with an even better line than I had with my original play?

The reason I posted my bet amounts is there is always the issue of hitting the limits so not all situations would work.

winbet · May 20, 2006

Firstly you havent pointed out whether the 10-20 dimes a game is real bets or the RX equation where everyone adds 2 zeros to their real bet. As for Hedgeing, scalping etc, its an individual thing but I think you must decide on one course of action, scalp and stay away from the result can be one bracket and playing games another, just like a Port Folio. Hedgeing is a must option on isolated Bets, futures, where half the intension was bailing out anyways, like your Clipper Bets. The problem with it on a daily basis is you are lowering your profit when you are right while taking it both barrels when your wrong. Thats a view if you can bet in-play but in your example you more or less answered it yourself when you said "I wish I had more of it" that way you can weight the bet even more in favour of your lean. I personally try to get the best price for my $10 bet (RX Formula $1000) then either lay them or bet the other side to nothing on the Exchanges.

Once again Thanks for the Clipper run :103631605

ClipJoint · May 20, 2006

whalewager said:
posting what u play on the net is a lil dangerous dont u think?

Not really...why?

whalewager · May 20, 2006

im just posting...dont mind me

ClipJoint · May 20, 2006

winbet said:
Firstly you havent pointed out whether the 10-20 dimes a game is real bets or the RX equation where everyone adds 2 zeros to their real bet.

The reason I put the amount in this situation is because I wanted advice knowing that there are limits that I can't get around. If someone were to say bet $10k on "side A" and then come back and hit it for the limit on "side B", I might reach my limit without having the ability to bet other games.

I have done this a couple times to get a better line for my limit bets. But it leaves me with little room to make other bets depending on where I stand for the week.

winbet said:
As for Hedgeing, scalping etc, its an individual thing but I think you must decide on one course of action, scalp and stay away from the result can be one bracket and playing games another, just like a Port Folio. Hedgeing is a must option on isolated Bets, futures, where half the intension was bailing out anyways, like your Clipper Bets.

My problem is I haven't done any of these things (unless by accident or experimenting). I rarely play futures (mainly for fun on my favorite teams) and never do it to try and make money.

winbet said:
The problem with it on a daily basis is you are lowering your profit when you are right while taking it both barrels when your wrong.

Here is what I am trying to avoid. I am trying to learn how to lock in profits, but as you point out, I don't know how to do this without reducing my profits on games I bet because of the value. I think the reason I have been so successful betting is because I do a good job of beating books to a number. Is it best to just keep those plays in those situations?

Kiss1 · May 20, 2006

Clip Joint said:
I don't think income has much to do with intelligence. I am proof of that. :lolBIG:

What is it exactly that you "do" for a living that affords you the luxury of betting 2 million dollars a week?

whalewager · May 20, 2006

people gots some big bucks around here...its a lil intimidating

winbet · May 20, 2006

Clip,
Its not a striaght forward thing, either you play it for a constant profit (scalp) or use your knowledge and play or hedge some. Because my knowledge of Baseball is zero, I dont make any judgements but in NFL, where I consider myself Knowledgeable, I would turn down a certain profit if I thought the bet had value. :drink:

megabyte666 · May 20, 2006

Clipjoint, if you dont mind me asking what do you do for a living that you could afford to risk betting that amount in one week? If that where me I would have the life expectancy of about 37. $2,000,000 in one week is a huge amount.

royalfan · May 20, 2006

over time you will make more not scalping out in these spots. Just a matter of emotions, if you can handle the losing streaks for those kind of amounts, I would not advise hedging out in those spots.

Kiss1 · May 20, 2006

whalewager said:
people gots some big bucks around here...its a lil intimidating

Imagine, a fifty percent ATS capper could afford to pay 10,400,000 a year in standard juice alone.

I think I could live rather large rolling that kind of money into CD ladders and still be liquid enough to lay on a beach in Tahiti and get head from super models.

Gambling?

Fuck That.

- K1

ClipJoint · May 20, 2006

winbet said:
Clip,
Its not a striaght forward thing, either you play it for a constant profit (scalp) or use your knowledge and play or hedge some. Because my knowledge of Baseball is zero, I dont make any judgements but in NFL, where I consider myself Knowledgeable, I would turn down a certain profit if I thought the bet had value. :drink:

I guess this is why it is considered such a "grind" to scalp, middle, hedge, etc.?

In the above situation, I was actually considering putting more on the same side this morning even though the line had increased drastically. As far as value goes, wouldn't this still make sense? If I bought another $20 dimes at -210, had my $10 dimes at -188, and $3 dimes at -184, my overall line is -200 for the $33 dimes I would have on the game.

Is it better to have $33 dimes at -200, or $13 dimes at an average of -187?

I guess this is what you are telling me as far as how confident I feel about the play? If I wasn't confident in the play, I would be better off buying back at + money and ending up with $5 dimes or so on the White Sox with a line of around -160 or so.

Sorry for the rambling...I just know there are situations where I am missing easy money and kicking myself. I really need to learn more about the scalping, hedging, middling.

whalewager · May 20, 2006

Kiss1 said:
Imagine, a fifty percent ATS capper could afford to pay 10,400,000 a year in standard juice alone.

I think I could live rather large rolling that kind of money into CD ladders and still be liquid enough to lay on a beach in Tahiti and get head from super models.

Gambling?

Fuck That.

- K1

some people have too much sense....good post

whalewager · May 20, 2006

problem is.... when u have it....u always want more

Kodiak7 · May 20, 2006

lmao... the post by clipjoint PRETTY much sums this guy up.. A wanna be high roller posting his 20K bets on -200 favs in bases... I knew this guy was a square from day 1... He bets 20K a game and I'm a catholic priest... Anyone betting over 10K a game is not coming online and talking about it.. I CAN PROMISE YOU THAT!

ucking:

ClipJoint · May 20, 2006

royalfan said:
over time you will make more not scalping out in these spots. Just a matter of emotions, if you can handle the losing streaks for those kind of amounts, I would not advise hedging out in those spots.

I guess I am thinking more along the lines of games where I know the line is off and going to move. Even if I didn't like one side or another but had a strong opinion on which way the line was headed, how do I figure out (quickly) how to lock in a profit?

I had this same situation yesterday during in game betting on the Cleveland/Detroit game. I just couldn't figure out what to bet back on the other side to lock in the profit in time...the line was gone by the time I figured out the amount.