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Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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Finally won a big one last night. My only play netted 800 to the good. Now 47-68-3 on the season and down 6144.

There are some UMPS going today and with it being a big horse-racing day, I didn't spend a lot of time looking for a bunch of gems. Will play some correlated stuff and some (mostly) ump-based totals.

Gibson no longer is a club-member at 60.8 percent, and with how Garcia has owned the Flubs lately, I can't bet over.

Reed is also at 60.8 in Oakland, but both pens are rested and I can't recommend over with those 2 pitchers - though there is value with Oakland and the way they're playing right now.

Angel bullpen is a mess, Dodgers and Tomko are rolling now, Bell is at 63.0; gun to head, Dodger and U parlay but I'll pass.

Guccione goes in Cleveland tonight and his 60.1 percentage is good enough for me to bite even though he's just 3-3 O/U this year. Johnson has really struggled. He was better in his last start vs. DET on Sunday but still is 0-3 with an 8.28 ERA in his last three starts. Snell was tagged by the Marlins all day Sunday and if you want to back Pitt and/or UNDER, you have to forgive him. I don't know if I can but I'll take a stab at the correlated parlay.

The play: Pitt +163 - 150 to win 244.50
OVER 10.5 +106 - 150 to win 159

2team parlay - PIT +161 and OVER 9.5 -130 - 200 to win 723.54

Boston sends Beckett out to try and win its fifth straight in Philly. Boston has outscored Philadelphia 44-15 over the last five meetings. Myers has been solid as of late, not allowing more than three runs in any of his eight starts this season. He has given up just 10 earned runs in his last six outings, posting a 2.11 ERA over that span. Still, he's just 1-1 with a 7.61 ERA against Boston and he has allowed 15 runs in 10 2/3 innings in one start each in 2004 and 2005. Beckett has won his last two starts and is 6-3 with a 3.79 ERA in 16 career outings against Philly. One big Boston inning pushes it over with the help of Crawford (60.0 percent qualifies him as a club member).

The plays: Boston -104 - 312 to win 300
OVER 9 even - 200 to win 200

2team parlay - Boston 105 and OVER 8.5 -130 - 250 to win 613.55

Marsh is an honorary member going in Kansas City tonight (7-2 O/U this year). Cards are a little cheap even though they don't have much of an advantage in the pitching matchup tonight. I'll bite on them getting to Bautista and the KC pen and this one turning out like last night - STL and O.

The plays: STL/KC OVER 10.5 plus 102 - 300 to win 306

2team parlay - STL -172 and OVER 10 -120 - 350 to win 664.73

Fletcher (60.4 percent strikes) going in Tampa tonight, and while I did little research on this one, I do know SY is on the OVER and that's enough for me.

The play: FLA/TAM OVER 10 -107 - 321 to win 300

Back with Pimlico stakes races in a bit... GL fellas... thoughts, opinions, etc., all appreciated...

:smoker2:
 

Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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Good start for me. Lost a little in the second at PIM but drilled the winner and the tri in the 4th. WInner paid just $6.00 but the TRI paid $106.20 and had it a few times...

To the fifth, post is at 12:43 EDT. Not sure why the '2' horse, Procreate, is 6-to-1 at 25 mins to post but he's my choice. Lake starter going 3rd in this form cycle and he had a good second in a similar stakes last time. Gets E-Rod in the saddles, a significant upgrade, and should get the cash here. The '4' (All Hail Stormy) has not won since 2004 but he will lead most of the way and can hang in for part. Southern Missile (the 8) could be favored. He went gate-to-wire in a race moved to the dirt last time and a sharp Alw-2 winner two back at this distance. He is sharp but this is a step up in class and I'll try to beat him on top.

The plays: 50 WP on the '2' and 20 exacta wheel 2 over 4-7-8 and $10 tri wheeling 2 with those three (4-7-8). Total risk - $220.

The sixth is the G-3 Hirsch Jacobs. Using the 1 (Mike'sgoodandtough) over the likely chalk (8; Songster) here. The 1 ran a good second in a Delaware stakes last time behind the 6 (Urban Guy), who opened up a clear lead and held on by 1 1/4 lengths. Two starts back, the 1 ran third behind Ah Day, who went on to win the Fedoriso Tesio. He's getting better each time out and should have a solid pace to fire at. I'll be involved as long as I get 5-to-1 or better.

The plays: 50 WPS on the '1' and a $20 exacta wheel 1-8 with 1-6-8. Might go for a straight TRI 8-1-6 or 8-1-3 but nothing at this point. Total wager (so far) - $230.

Back with some more in a bit. GL!
 

Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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To the seventh... a wide-open Gallorette (G-III)... Clement's 2-horse had a big load dropped on him at the windows early in the wagering, as his ML price of 20-1 was 5-1 at 30 Mins to post... I still don't like him enough to play though, but will know what happens if he beats me.

Laurafina (#3) has a decent shot but she had one last time too and didn't fire. Motion's 4-horse is a live longshot, Miss Audrey. She is going up in class but has won her last two races and would be unbeaten on turf if not for losing the rider at the start of her turf debut.

Mott is holding the strongest hand here. Thetactics Ofdance (#8) is 19-1 with 15 to post, and she's seeking her third straight victory. She won the Turf Distaff at Tampa in her last start. She was scratched from the Thirty Flags Stakes at Belmont Park on Wednesday when it was rained off the turf. Meanwhile, My Typhoon appears to be the best. With Prado aboard, of course she's been bet down to 9/5, but this is her first start since November and she might need one.

Humoristic (#10) also fits but drew too much attention for me. Was 10-1 in the morning, now 5-1.

Let's try these...

The plays: $30 WPS on the 4... A $2 tri wheeling the 4/8/9/10 with 4/8/9/10/2/3 with 4/8/9/10/2/3 - this costs $288. A $10 exacta with 4/8/9/10 over 4/8/9/10/2/3. That runs me $200. And a $6 Pick-3 with the 4/8/9/10 with the 3/7 with the 2/3. That runs me another $96. Here goes nothing....

In the 8th, Pletcher seems to have a strangle-lock on the Sir Barton. High Cotton (the 3) and Ultimate Goal (the 7), both trained by Pletcher, have shown flashes of brilliance and figure as solid threats to the top Tesio pair. High Cotton won the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park before being overmatched in the Arkansas Derby, while Ultimate Goal will make his stakes debut after winning a Gulfstream maiden race and a Keeneland allowance.

They figure to not get as much attention at the windows as Ah Day (the 2), who won the aforementioned Tesio but Prado gets the call on the 7 and we know what he can do in Baltimore. High Cotton should be near or in front early and in the middle. I'm not a big fan of Ah Day, as he didn't want to tackle tougher in the Preakness and didn't beat an overwhelmingly strong group last time in the Tesio. Looks like an underlay.

The plays: $100 to win on the '7' and $50 to place on the '7'... A $20 7-3-2 Exacta and Trifecta box. Bigger risk here, total cost - $390.

Back in a bit...

:toast:
 

Sports ANALyst
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What a shock. A wise-guy horse beats me on a big-race day. The dam '2' in the seventh pays $17.40 and I'm too cheap to put him on top of the 10 to get back my $153 gift. Quite an expensive bath to take and my stakes day has been sour so far.

To the ninth... the Maryland BC Sprint Handicap, another G-III race. I mistakenly put the 2/3 in my earlier Pick-3 instead of 3/4 when talking about this race. Nothing against Kazoo (the 2) but Friendly Island (the 4) is one of the best sprinters going right now. He was second to Bordonaro (115 Beyer at OP) and his 112 there was much better than these can do. He's a consistent sprinter, one of the best in America, and should be tough to beat at a short price. I give the 3 (Gaff) the best chance. Gaff ran fifth in a very tough Golden Shaheen ($2 million race where the top 5 were all Americans in Dubai)... It's hard not to root for Gaff because I want horses who race in Dubai to come back and do well here, it's good for American racing. He won three straight before going over there but the Cal-breds were too much for him. Kazoo is the speed, Friendly Island lost to Gaff in the Mr. Prospector and those appear to be the best. While I acknowledge that the 6 (Better Than Bonds) is sitting on a monster, he's up against it here even with the switch to Motion.

THe plays: $100 WP on the 3 (Gaff) and $50 exacta box 2-3-4 ($300). Also a $40 trifecta with the 3-4 over 3-4 over 2 ($80)... and a $20 tri box 2-3-4 ($120). The Pick-4...
9th - 3,4
10th - 1a, 5, 6
11th - 1, 7
12th - 5

This $20 ticket runs me $240. Might get it all back here. Total risk - ($940).
 

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rex.....who you like in the preakness?

heading to the local track to wager in an hour.....i like the 5 and 8 to win and thinking about a few exactas and exacta boxes...maybe a tri also
 

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Barbaro from nearby Chester County here in Philadelphia will win by 5-7 lengths...
 

Sports ANALyst
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Win 203 in the 8th race, coulda been a little better but the exacta pays $46.80. Not shabby....

But lose 640 in the 9th. Sigh.

In the 10th, no doubt Artie Schiller will be a monster but I'm going to try to beat him with Better Talk Now. This is his first start of the year but Motion doesn't seem worried at all. He's stuck in Shake The Bank, the designated rabbit, and while he might need a race, I'll take my chances that he'll fire today.

THe plays: $200 to win on the 1 (Better Talk Now) and a $50 exacta saver 6-1. Also, going with a $30 tri with 6/1 over 6/1 over 5. And a $40 Pick-3 using 1/6 with 1/7 with 5 for a total of $80. This race 'only' costs me $390...

In the 11th, I'm reluctantly tossing out the '5' Andromeda's Hero and using just the '1' (Master Command) and the '7' (Funny Cide). Another small field and while Funny Cide and his $3.3 million bankroll is nearly twice the rest of the field's combined earnings.... I give the nod to the '1'. He tracked the pace in the Oaklawn 'Cap off a 3-month layoff. Two have exited that race to stakes wins more recently. He owns a solid pace profile and if avoids hooking up with the '6' (Water Cannon) early, he's the horse to beat.

The plays: $200 to win and place on the '1'... a $40 exacta box 1-7 and a $20 tri wheeling 1/7 with 1/7 with 5. In the Pick-3, using 1/7 with 5 with 1/3/11 in the last race...

GL!
 

Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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Fellas: If you notice I've been singling picks in the Pick-3 and Pick-4. It's the 5, Brother Derek.

In the 12, that's my winner.

Simply put, he threw a shoe in Kentucky early in the race or even before it started. He was caught talking to the fans the first time by, WAYYYYYYYYY wide, and stayed that way throughout. His run from 16th to fourth was somewhat amazing. Sure, the winner was a good horse and he's still going to be right there today but he got the PERFECT trip in Louisville and that won't happen again today - not like the last time. Sweetnorthernsaint lost to the '1' in New York and I consider him a notch below the top two after the last race.

The plays: $500 to win on the '5'. A $150 exacta box with 5-6. A $40 tri wheeling 5/6 with 5/6 with 1/7/8. That runs me $240 and has a real good shot at cashing.

Good luck!
 

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