Woody0 said:
What percentage of games each season does the favourite win by exactly 1 run?
Here are last season's standings. What this doesn't tell you (obviously) is whether or not the team was favored when they had the 1-run win. But this tells you just how often 1-run games happen in MLB. Not worth the price to give a run.
The White Sox were my example above and over 35% of their wins were by 1-run. You would have cost yourself A LOT of profit by playing -1 on them all season. Not nearly as much value as you might think with that line. You don't save that much juice from the ML.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=12 height=18>
American League</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="19%" height=18>
East</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="6%">
W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
GB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Day</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Night</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Grass</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Turf</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
1-Run</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="9%">
Xtra</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L10</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
y-NY Yankees</TD><TD>
95</TD><TD>
67</TD><TD>
.586</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
33-22</TD><TD>
62-45</TD><TD>
83-58</TD><TD>
12-9</TD><TD>
27-16</TD><TD>
4-4</TD><TD>
6-4</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
x-Boston</TD><TD>
95</TD><TD>
67</TD><TD>
.586</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
30-19</TD><TD>
65-48</TD><TD>
87-54</TD><TD>
8-13</TD><TD>
27-15</TD><TD>
6-2</TD><TD>
7-3</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Toronto</TD><TD>
80</TD><TD>
82</TD><TD>
.494</TD><TD>
15.0</TD><TD>
22-35</TD><TD>
58-47</TD><TD>
30-39</TD><TD>
50-43</TD><TD>
16-31</TD><TD>
4-6</TD><TD>
5-5</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Baltimore</TD><TD>
74</TD><TD>
88</TD><TD>
.457</TD><TD>
21.0</TD><TD>
23-30</TD><TD>
51-58</TD><TD>
62-78</TD><TD>
12-10</TD><TD>
14-25</TD><TD>
2-6</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Tampa Bay</TD><TD>
67</TD><TD>
95</TD><TD>
.414</TD><TD>
28.0</TD><TD>
17-23</TD><TD>
50-72</TD><TD>
22-46</TD><TD>
45-49</TD><TD>
29-25</TD><TD>
5-4</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="19%" height=18>
Central</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="6%">
W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
GB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Day</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Night</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Grass</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Turf</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
1-Run</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="9%">
Xtra</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L10</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
y-Chi White Sox</TD><TD>
99</TD><TD>
63</TD><TD>
.611</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
37-20</TD><TD>
62-43</TD><TD>
89-58</TD><TD>
10-5</TD><TD>
35-19</TD><TD>
11-8</TD><TD>
8-2</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Cleveland</TD><TD>
93</TD><TD>
69</TD><TD>
.574</TD><TD>
6.0</TD><TD>
24-29</TD><TD>
69-40</TD><TD>
84-62</TD><TD>
9-7</TD><TD>
22-36</TD><TD>
6-8</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Minnesota</TD><TD>
83</TD><TD>
79</TD><TD>
.512</TD><TD>
16.0</TD><TD>
25-25</TD><TD>
58-54</TD><TD>
33-42</TD><TD>
50-37</TD><TD>
27-30</TD><TD>
15-8</TD><TD>
5-5</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Detroit</TD><TD>
71</TD><TD>
91</TD><TD>
.438</TD><TD>
28.0</TD><TD>
26-31</TD><TD>
45-60</TD><TD>
65-80</TD><TD>
6-11</TD><TD>
22-26</TD><TD>
8-3</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Kansas City</TD><TD>
56</TD><TD>
106</TD><TD>
.346</TD><TD>
43.0</TD><TD>
22-32</TD><TD>
34-74</TD><TD>
52-91</TD><TD>
4-15</TD><TD>
18-30</TD><TD>
4-8</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="19%" height=18>
West</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="6%">
W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
GB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Day</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Night</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Grass</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Turf</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
1-Run</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="9%">
Xtra</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L10</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
y-LA Angels</TD><TD>
95</TD><TD>
67</TD><TD>
.586</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
24-22</TD><TD>
71-45</TD><TD>
91-58</TD><TD>
4-9</TD><TD>
33-26</TD><TD>
9-10</TD><TD>
8-2</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Oakland</TD><TD>
88</TD><TD>
74</TD><TD>
.543</TD><TD>
7.0</TD><TD>
35-20</TD><TD>
53-54</TD><TD>
83-66</TD><TD>
5-8</TD><TD>
26-24</TD><TD>
10-4</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Texas</TD><TD>
79</TD><TD>
83</TD><TD>
.488</TD><TD>
16.0</TD><TD>
27-24</TD><TD>
52-59</TD><TD>
72-76</TD><TD>
7-7</TD><TD>
24-29</TD><TD>
7-8</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Seattle</TD><TD>
69</TD><TD>
93</TD><TD>
.426</TD><TD>
26.0</TD><TD>
23-31</TD><TD>
46-62</TD><TD>
64-84</TD><TD>
5-9</TD><TD>
26-23</TD><TD>
2-5</TD><TD>
3-7</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=12 height=18>
<SPACER type="block" height="1" width="1"></TD></TR><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=12 height=18>
National League</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="19%" height=18>
East</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="6%">
W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
GB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Day</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Night</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Grass</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Turf</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
1-Run</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="9%">
Xtra</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L10</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
y-Atlanta</TD><TD>
90</TD><TD>
72</TD><TD>
.556</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
25-23</TD><TD>
65-49</TD><TD>
90-72</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
23-20</TD><TD>
6-7</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Philadelphia</TD><TD>
88</TD><TD>
74</TD><TD>
.543</TD><TD>
2.0</TD><TD>
34-20</TD><TD>
54-54</TD><TD>
88-74</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
21-23</TD><TD>
6-4</TD><TD>
7-3</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Florida</TD><TD>
83</TD><TD>
79</TD><TD>
.512</TD><TD>
7.0</TD><TD>
24-21</TD><TD>
59-58</TD><TD>
80-79</TD><TD>
3-0</TD><TD>
20-23</TD><TD>
5-9</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
NY Mets</TD><TD>
83</TD><TD>
79</TD><TD>
.512</TD><TD>
7.0</TD><TD>
26-26</TD><TD>
57-53</TD><TD>
83-79</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
21-24</TD><TD>
8-6</TD><TD>
8-2</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Washington</TD><TD>
81</TD><TD>
81</TD><TD>
.500</TD><TD>
9.0</TD><TD>
25-30</TD><TD>
56-51</TD><TD>
80-79</TD><TD>
1-2</TD><TD>
30-31</TD><TD>
6-11</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="19%" height=18>
Central</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="6%">
W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
GB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Day</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Night</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Grass</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Turf</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
1-Run</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="9%">
Xtra</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L10</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
y-St. Louis</TD><TD>
100</TD><TD>
62</TD><TD>
.617</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
33-26</TD><TD>
67-36</TD><TD>
96-60</TD><TD>
4-2</TD><TD>
21-25</TD><TD>
5-3</TD><TD>
5-5</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
x-Houston</TD><TD>
89</TD><TD>
73</TD><TD>
.549</TD><TD>
11.0</TD><TD>
22-23</TD><TD>
67-50</TD><TD>
89-73</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
25-21</TD><TD>
4-4</TD><TD>
6-4</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Milwaukee</TD><TD>
81</TD><TD>
81</TD><TD>
.500</TD><TD>
19.0</TD><TD>
30-27</TD><TD>
51-54</TD><TD>
77-76</TD><TD>
4-5</TD><TD>
21-21</TD><TD>
3-8</TD><TD>
6-4</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Chi Cubs</TD><TD>
79</TD><TD>
83</TD><TD>
.488</TD><TD>
21.0</TD><TD>
41-44</TD><TD>
38-39</TD><TD>
79-83</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
26-20</TD><TD>
5-5</TD><TD>
5-5</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Cincinnati</TD><TD>
73</TD><TD>
89</TD><TD>
.451</TD><TD>
27.0</TD><TD>
27-22</TD><TD>
46-67</TD><TD>
73-89</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
21-18</TD><TD>
5-2</TD><TD>
2-8</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Pittsburgh</TD><TD>
67</TD><TD>
95</TD><TD>
.414</TD><TD>
33.0</TD><TD>
21-31</TD><TD>
46-64</TD><TD>
67-95</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
15-28</TD><TD>
4-8</TD><TD>
5-5</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="19%" height=18>
West</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="6%">
W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
GB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Day</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
Night</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Grass</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
Turf</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">
1-Run</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="9%">
Xtra</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="7%">
L10</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
y-San Diego</TD><TD>
82</TD><TD>
80</TD><TD>
.506</TD><TD>
--</TD><TD>
24-27</TD><TD>
58-53</TD><TD>
80-79</TD><TD>
2-1</TD><TD>
29-20</TD><TD>
9-8</TD><TD>
6-4</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
Arizona</TD><TD>
77</TD><TD>
85</TD><TD>
.475</TD><TD>
5.0</TD><TD>
24-20</TD><TD>
53-65</TD><TD>
77-85</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
28-18</TD><TD>
8-7</TD><TD>
8-2</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
San Francisco</TD><TD>
75</TD><TD>
87</TD><TD>
.463</TD><TD>
7.0</TD><TD>
22-30</TD><TD>
53-57</TD><TD>
73-86</TD><TD>
2-1</TD><TD>
27-25</TD><TD>
4-7</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>
LA Dodgers</TD><TD>
71</TD><TD>
91</TD><TD>
.438</TD><TD>
11.0</TD><TD>
20-25</TD><TD>
51-66</TD><TD>
71-91</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
20-23</TD><TD>
7-5</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>
Colorado</TD><TD>
67</TD><TD>
95</TD><TD>
.414</TD><TD>
15.0</TD><TD>
22-30</TD><TD>
45-65</TD><TD>
67-95</TD><TD>
0-0</TD><TD>
25-24</TD><TD>
4-4</TD><TD>
4-6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>