What would you rather have in a game?
+4.5 @ +115
or
+5.5 @ -102?
I was just wondering since it seems that once teams get down by 4 with under a minute to go, they end up fouling anyway, and so the free throw just go in from there, leading to something like a 7 or 8 point cover by the favorite.
On the other hand, if they are only down by 3 with minutes to go, then they play for the win and either A) lose by 3 or less or B) end up going to overtime.
So to me, it seems like the difference wouldn't be that substantial between a +4.5 and a +5.5. Thoughts?
+4.5 @ +115
or
+5.5 @ -102?
I was just wondering since it seems that once teams get down by 4 with under a minute to go, they end up fouling anyway, and so the free throw just go in from there, leading to something like a 7 or 8 point cover by the favorite.
On the other hand, if they are only down by 3 with minutes to go, then they play for the win and either A) lose by 3 or less or B) end up going to overtime.
So to me, it seems like the difference wouldn't be that substantial between a +4.5 and a +5.5. Thoughts?
