What a depressing last 8 days. From the Pistons losing on the court in Game 4 to Barbaro falling down right in front of my fucking horse in the Preakness, costing me any chance of exactas, tris, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, etc., it just seems like I can't get anything going. When I fully focused on the baseball again like yesterday and tried to pick my spots (I thought I had several good ones)... I get simply crucified. Oakland spits the bit, Reds score 100 runs after getting three-hit, Seattle and Baltimore come up with 14 somehow, the Yanks continue to struggle, Washington just flat sucks and St. Louis lays an egg.
It all adds up to 3-13 after the parlays and I lose 3053 - almost what I had worked so hard to win Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Now sitting at 62-87-3 and down 6752 for the year.
Some people who have gone through this shit the last 8 days (did I mention that my longest-tenured relationship with a female (a year and three months) ended last Tuesday?) probably would have hung themselves or gotten committed by now. But here I am, still surviving and trying to face what the world is offering. And now, onto today's bases....
Interesting trend in Washington with Marquez behind the dish. He's been a dead OVER all season, with a 60.6 he almost qualifies as a club member. But, a closer inspection shows that he's done five Houston games behind the plate since June of 2004 and all of them have gone UNDER, and by a wide margin. Marquez is still mostly an UNDER guy (32-40 since the start of 2004) so even with these two clowns going to the hill, I'mma pass.
I don't see any reason why the Flubs should be favored over anyone when they once again try to wheel out a guy who belongs on the DL. I made the game a PICK even with this clown Olsen. Florida is now 28-9 O/U this year, the last four these two played has gone OVER, as have 20 of the last 27. THe Fish are 23-5-1 OVER in their last 29 home games and while Froemming is closer to an UNDER than an OVER (four of his last five have gone UNDER), his last five night games in Miami have all gone OVER. Sometimes the UMP can't make a difference.
The plays: Florida plus 110 - 300 to win 330
OVER 8.5 plus 108 - 300 to win 324
Baseball playing a cruel joke putting Bill Welke (29-40 O/U since start of 2004) in Cincinnati. Good luck to him trying to keep runs off the board with these two, even though he's yielding just 6.50 rpg... his strike percentage is a normal 62.7, I'll pass but will definitely watch parts of this one on the tube. Also interested to see how these 2006 Reds will handle this stretch. The 'fold' was on about this time last year, they rebounded from the two straight losses nicely last night but are still 3-7 their last 10, let's see how long they can compete with STL in the Central.
No opinion in NYC. Phils luck out by missing the two Mets starters with a pulse. No UMP yet, if Emmel pops up it's an automatic OVER with these two guys pitching, otherwise I'mma prolly pass.
I actually made Arizona where they are or close to it but in reality Vargas isn't that bad and this is the first-place team in the best division in baseball that's playing against the worst road team since the '76 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has one bad start and they adjust it this much? If he would have at least shown up in STL, this price would be closer to two dollars. Don't get it... They reeled me in, though.
THe plays: Arizona -155 - 465 to win 300
and Zona -1.5 plus 129 - 200 to win 258
Atlanta was able to overcome 16 strikeouts from Peavy last night. Surely they'll be able to overcome rookie Thompson, who is making just his second start. The Braves will try to move two games above .500 for the first time this year. Starting pitching has gotten them back in the East, a division they've never lost. Sosa got his first win last time, as he allowed one run and six hits, and struck out a season-high eight on Thursday. Pads are slumping a bit so why not take ATL again?
The play: ATL -105 - 315 to win 300
For the fourth straight day, the Yankees are an underdog. And for the third of those four days, they might lose. Also, for the third of those four days, I'm playing them. Wakefield faces the Yankees for the third time in his last five starts. This is the ninth series between the Red Sox and Yankees since the beginning of last season, and Wakefield has made a start each time! So they've had plenty of chances to see him. Sheffield will return to the lineup tonight now that he's finished with rehabbing his wrist injury. Wright is just 1-3 this season but New York did not score until after Wright had left his last start Thursday against Texas, the third time in his five starts he received no runs from his offense. Wright's 1.98 run support average is the lowest for any major league pitcher with at least five starts this season. With Sheffield back, and the generous 'dog' price on the Yankees, I'll bite.
The play: Jankees plus 143 - 200 to win 286
They bet the White Sox OVER this morning like it was stealing. Jazz is using 9 over 45 right now. Wow. Saarloos has decent splits against CHW and Vazquez is tough when he's on. Schrieber is 1-3 this year O/U though he's 34-24 since the start of 2004.
Let the snickering and sneering begin. Kansas City has lost at least 10 games in a row for the second time this year, and it's only May! Meanwhile, The Gambler goes for his fifth straight win. All jokes aside, the value here lies with the hosts. Hernandez had two good starts since returning to the rotation, but his last three have been duds. In his last start, he was bothered by an arm cramp and didn't get out of the fourth inning. Perhaps the extra rest will help him tonight. The Royals were dominated by Verlander last night but held a player's only meeting before the game. Rogers doesn't have that kind of overpowering stuff so expect the Kansas City bats to break out of it a little bit. Hernandez lost to Detroit 3-2 on May 1, giving up three runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings, but he's 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA in six starts against the Tigers. Let's take a stab at the Royals.
THe play: Kansas City plus 205 - 200 to win 410
Tremendous value on Santana RL tonight, 101-cent difference from the ML. Not interested in laying 65 cents or more but will bite on the -1.5 plus 132. I realize he can win it by one and Lee is a tough cookie but every time Santana gets victimized by lack of run support, the Twins bust out with a big game next time he's out there.
THe play: Minny -1.5 plus 132 - 200 to win 264
Ended up playing Miami plus 5.5 tonight for a dime. Also got them for a dime to win the series at plus 220. Might scalp some of that back after they win on the court tonight.
GL gents!
It all adds up to 3-13 after the parlays and I lose 3053 - almost what I had worked so hard to win Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Now sitting at 62-87-3 and down 6752 for the year.
Some people who have gone through this shit the last 8 days (did I mention that my longest-tenured relationship with a female (a year and three months) ended last Tuesday?) probably would have hung themselves or gotten committed by now. But here I am, still surviving and trying to face what the world is offering. And now, onto today's bases....
Interesting trend in Washington with Marquez behind the dish. He's been a dead OVER all season, with a 60.6 he almost qualifies as a club member. But, a closer inspection shows that he's done five Houston games behind the plate since June of 2004 and all of them have gone UNDER, and by a wide margin. Marquez is still mostly an UNDER guy (32-40 since the start of 2004) so even with these two clowns going to the hill, I'mma pass.
I don't see any reason why the Flubs should be favored over anyone when they once again try to wheel out a guy who belongs on the DL. I made the game a PICK even with this clown Olsen. Florida is now 28-9 O/U this year, the last four these two played has gone OVER, as have 20 of the last 27. THe Fish are 23-5-1 OVER in their last 29 home games and while Froemming is closer to an UNDER than an OVER (four of his last five have gone UNDER), his last five night games in Miami have all gone OVER. Sometimes the UMP can't make a difference.
The plays: Florida plus 110 - 300 to win 330
OVER 8.5 plus 108 - 300 to win 324
Baseball playing a cruel joke putting Bill Welke (29-40 O/U since start of 2004) in Cincinnati. Good luck to him trying to keep runs off the board with these two, even though he's yielding just 6.50 rpg... his strike percentage is a normal 62.7, I'll pass but will definitely watch parts of this one on the tube. Also interested to see how these 2006 Reds will handle this stretch. The 'fold' was on about this time last year, they rebounded from the two straight losses nicely last night but are still 3-7 their last 10, let's see how long they can compete with STL in the Central.
No opinion in NYC. Phils luck out by missing the two Mets starters with a pulse. No UMP yet, if Emmel pops up it's an automatic OVER with these two guys pitching, otherwise I'mma prolly pass.
I actually made Arizona where they are or close to it but in reality Vargas isn't that bad and this is the first-place team in the best division in baseball that's playing against the worst road team since the '76 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has one bad start and they adjust it this much? If he would have at least shown up in STL, this price would be closer to two dollars. Don't get it... They reeled me in, though.
THe plays: Arizona -155 - 465 to win 300
and Zona -1.5 plus 129 - 200 to win 258
Atlanta was able to overcome 16 strikeouts from Peavy last night. Surely they'll be able to overcome rookie Thompson, who is making just his second start. The Braves will try to move two games above .500 for the first time this year. Starting pitching has gotten them back in the East, a division they've never lost. Sosa got his first win last time, as he allowed one run and six hits, and struck out a season-high eight on Thursday. Pads are slumping a bit so why not take ATL again?
The play: ATL -105 - 315 to win 300
For the fourth straight day, the Yankees are an underdog. And for the third of those four days, they might lose. Also, for the third of those four days, I'm playing them. Wakefield faces the Yankees for the third time in his last five starts. This is the ninth series between the Red Sox and Yankees since the beginning of last season, and Wakefield has made a start each time! So they've had plenty of chances to see him. Sheffield will return to the lineup tonight now that he's finished with rehabbing his wrist injury. Wright is just 1-3 this season but New York did not score until after Wright had left his last start Thursday against Texas, the third time in his five starts he received no runs from his offense. Wright's 1.98 run support average is the lowest for any major league pitcher with at least five starts this season. With Sheffield back, and the generous 'dog' price on the Yankees, I'll bite.
The play: Jankees plus 143 - 200 to win 286
They bet the White Sox OVER this morning like it was stealing. Jazz is using 9 over 45 right now. Wow. Saarloos has decent splits against CHW and Vazquez is tough when he's on. Schrieber is 1-3 this year O/U though he's 34-24 since the start of 2004.
Let the snickering and sneering begin. Kansas City has lost at least 10 games in a row for the second time this year, and it's only May! Meanwhile, The Gambler goes for his fifth straight win. All jokes aside, the value here lies with the hosts. Hernandez had two good starts since returning to the rotation, but his last three have been duds. In his last start, he was bothered by an arm cramp and didn't get out of the fourth inning. Perhaps the extra rest will help him tonight. The Royals were dominated by Verlander last night but held a player's only meeting before the game. Rogers doesn't have that kind of overpowering stuff so expect the Kansas City bats to break out of it a little bit. Hernandez lost to Detroit 3-2 on May 1, giving up three runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings, but he's 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA in six starts against the Tigers. Let's take a stab at the Royals.
THe play: Kansas City plus 205 - 200 to win 410
Tremendous value on Santana RL tonight, 101-cent difference from the ML. Not interested in laying 65 cents or more but will bite on the -1.5 plus 132. I realize he can win it by one and Lee is a tough cookie but every time Santana gets victimized by lack of run support, the Twins bust out with a big game next time he's out there.
THe play: Minny -1.5 plus 132 - 200 to win 264
Ended up playing Miami plus 5.5 tonight for a dime. Also got them for a dime to win the series at plus 220. Might scalp some of that back after they win on the court tonight.
GL gents!
