Sundog's 10* MLB Tues Total

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2-0 on 10* MLB Plays for the season- has to have all the right ingredients and this one I like. I placed some info for your understanding of its value.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Over 9


Baltimore will use a committee of pitchers today as Penn will be replaced. Seattle is on an over tear in its last 11 games and the umpire smiles favorably on over games.

The Mariners will turn to Joel Pineiro, who has been tough to figure out in 2006. Pineiro has lost his last two starts, allowing a combined 11 earned runs on 13 hits in nine innings. In that fitful stretch, Pineiro has five walks. In his two previous starts before his recent skid, the right-hander was 2-0 with three runs allowed over 17 innings and no walks. Pineiro felt like he took a step backward in his last start against Oakland on May 18, when he allowed five earned runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the A's.

Baltimore's starting rotation is compromised by illness on Monday, when 21-year-old Hayden Penn was diagnosed with a case of appendicitis. Penn was tabbed to replace the injured Daniel Cabrera in the rotation, and now the Orioles are unsure who will take his place. They're expected to decide early Tuesday, and they have three clear options.

Manager Sam Perlozzo opted against bringing back Kris Benson a day early, leaving him to choose between Adam Loewen, John Halama and Kurt Birkins. Halama hasn't pitched in a week and seems to be the most likely choice, but Loewen and Birkins could both be factors. And frankly, as Perlozzo put it, you could see more than one of those arms involved.

"I would assume that there's a good chance two of the three of them will be in there fairly early," he said. That could mean Loewen, who threw six one-hit innings for Double-A Bowie last Friday. The former first-round pick will make a cross-country flight Tuesday to join the parent club and may make his big-league debut that night.

The Orioles have won this season series in three of the last four years, notching a 23-15 record since the start of the 2002 season. Things are a little more even at Safeco Field, where the O's are 9-11 over the last four-plus seasons. Overall, Baltimore is 174-144 against Seattle, and the series has been held every year since 1977.

Pitching matchup
BAL: LHP John Halama (2-1, 5.09 ERA)
Halama, the likely starter, has been a swingman for a good portion of his career, but hasn't started yet this season.

SEA: RHP Joel Pineiro (4-4, 4.91 ERA)
Pineiro has lost two straight starts, but he won two before that. He's 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA in May.
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--Play Over - All teams against the total (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings.
(50-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%) Rating = 2*

--Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings.
(39-14 since 1997.) (73.6%) Rating = 3*

--Play Over - Home teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL, playing on Tuesday.
(38-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%) Rating = 3*
 

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Note avg game scores as well. The value is in 4th line pitchers or replacements such as the double A pitcher who was recently called up. The bull pens should be to our advantage as well.

BALTIMORE is 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 6.0, OPPONENT 6.5

BALTIMORE is 23-14 OVER (+8.1 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.9 -

BALTIMORE is 20-8 OVER (+11.4 Units) in night games this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.3, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE is 56-31 OVER (+21.9 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.4, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.5, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 111-77 OVER (+28.0 Units) in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 0*)

BALTIMORE is 11-3 OVER (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.7, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 10-1 OVER (+8.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.5, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE is 28-15 OVER (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 26-13 OVER (+12.0 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.3, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 21-9 OVER (+11.4 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 6.0, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE is 28-15 OVER (+11.9 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 74-46 OVER (+23.2 Units) in road games in May games since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 32-17 OVER (+14.0 Units) when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 5.7 -

BALTIMORE is 21-11 OVER (+9.4 Units) on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.7, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE is 18-9 OVER (+8.6 Units) on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.0, OPPONENT 5.9 -

SEATTLE is 14-6 OVER (+7.6 Units) in May games this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 5.0, OPPONENT 5.0
 

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