My unit system is from 1 to 5 ONLY. I wont have too many 5 units play however. A usual solid play for me is a 3 unit play. I will return tomorrow with a few writeups as to why I like these games. But I handicapped these during my poker tournament tonight. I like to bet them on the overnight lines whenever possible.
Yesterday I went 2-1-1 and was up +1.44 units!!!
1. 4 unit play- Detroit under 9.5 and -110
Normally, I wouldnt make an under a 4 unit play, but I have to make an exception here!! For the year, the under is an ASTOUNDING 28-15 in all Detroit games. Boy has MIKE MAROTH improved over a few years ago when he was a 20 game loser!! This year he is 5-2 with an ERA of 2.45 for Detroit. Meanwhile, Danny Bautista for Kansas City hasnt pitched that poorly either! He is 0-2, but his ERA is a respectable 3.75 for the season. Here a few trends to make this game an under as well!
<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Tigers last 4 day games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Tigers last 7 road games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. American League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Tigers last 5 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.<LI class=more>Under is 16-5-0 in Tigers last 21 during game 4 of a series. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-3 in Tigers last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-3 in Tigers last 29 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Tigers last 7 games following a win. <LI class=more>Under is 36-15-5 in Tigers last 56 on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 11-5-0 in Tigers last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 27-13-3 in Tigers last 43 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Maroth's last 7 starts as a road favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 17-5-2 in Maroth's last 24 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 17-5-2 in Maroth's last 24 starts as a favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 20-6-2 in Maroth's last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 39-12-1 in Maroth's last 52 starts vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2-0 in Maroth's last 8 Thursday starts. <LI class=more>Under is 21-7-2 in Maroth's last 30 day starts. <LI class=more>Under is 25-9-1 in Maroth's last 35 road starts. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-2 in Maroth's last 28 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-1 in Maroth's last 27 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 37-14-2 in Maroth's last 53 starts on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 40-16-2 in Maroth's last 58 starts overall. <LI class=more>Under is 36-16-3 in Maroth's last 55 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 36-17-3 in Maroth's last 56 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 home starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 starts as a home underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 starts vs. American League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Bautista's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2-0 in Bautista's last 8 starts on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3-0 in Bautista's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-0 in Bautista's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
NOW IF THAT were not enough, check out the stats for the Homeplate umpire tomorrow when he was behind the dish!
Umpire Trends - Chuck Meriwether
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblUmpire cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
Overall, here is Chuck Meriweather's record. He has behind the plate 8 times this season. 7 games have gone under and only 1 game went over!!!:money:
2. 3 unit play- Detroit -1.5 runs and -135
Only slightly worried about this play ONLY because of the strength of the under play in this game. This game could EASILY only have 3 or 4 runs scored TOTAL!! But hopefully, it will be 4-0 Detroit win. Some of my reasoning for this pick is above, but here are some more selling points!!!
Mike Maroth is 5-2 for the season with an ERA of 2.45. Detroit has the best record in baseball at 32-14 and Kansas City has the worst record at 10-34. Kansas City has lost 1 straight games and Detroit has WON 13 out of their last 14 games! I have been on at least 10 of those games myself!! Only game that they lost in that stretch was against a pretty hot at the time Cincinnati team! Here are a few trends as if you need them!!
<LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 day games. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite.<LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in Maroth's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in Maroth's last 3 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in Maroth's last 4 starts as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-1 in Maroth's last 5 starts during game 4 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-1 in Maroth's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.<LI class=morecool>Royals are 5-21 in their last 26 games as a home underdog of +201 or greater. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.<LI class=morecool>Royals are 1-4 in Bautista's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-3 in Bautista's last 3 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-3 in Bautista's last 3 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
The following trends are not as strong, but give you an idea about how hot of a team Detroit has been since the first week of the season!!
<LI class=more>Tigers are 25-7 in their last 32 overall. <LI class=more>Tigers are 21-6 in their last 27 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Tigers are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Tigers are 21-7 in their last 28 games as a favorite. <LI class=more>Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 road games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a win. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-16 in their last 51 games on Grass.:money8: :money8: :money8:
3. 2 unit play- Seattle -143 with Meche and Lopez conditional starters!
I hate to bet on a weak Seattle team, but they have been on a nice run lately and the pitching matchup here actually probably calls for a 5 unit play. But I cant post a 5 unit play on ANY team from Seattle!!
First of all, Gil Meche from Seattle is 4-2 for the season with an ERA of 4.30. But more importantly, he is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, on the other end of the world is Rodrigo Lopez is 1-7 with an ERA of 8.07 for the season and he is 0-3 with a 9.33 ERA in his last 3 starts.
That alone should be all that you need, but there is more!! Seattle has won 5 out of their last 6 games and Baltimore has lost 4 out of their last 5 games. Here are a few trends to solidify the pick
<LI class=morecool>Orioles are 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League West. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-8 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.<LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in Lopez's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-6 in Lopez's last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-6 in Lopez's last 6 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-6 in Lopez's last 6 starts. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 road starts. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 starts as a road underdog.<LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in their last 3 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in their last 3 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 home games. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.<LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in Meche's last 3 starts. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in Meche's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 6-1 in Meche's last 7 starts as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in Meche's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-1 in Meche's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
The following trends are not as strong, but good regardless
<LI class=more>Orioles are 16-37 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. <LI class=more>Orioles are 16-38 in their last 54 day games. <LI class=more>Orioles are 15-36 in their last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Orioles are 15-44 in their last 59 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 4 of a series.<LI class=more>:money8: :money8:
4. 1 unit play- Boston -1.5 runs and -138
Most would probably make this play at least a 3 unit play, but I am worried about the Red Sox lately. For some reason, I sense an extended losing streak coming on soon. They looked pretty bad against the Yankees over the past 2 days. Therefore, I am limiting a usually high pick to 1 unit today!
Josh Beckett is on the mound for the Red Sox. He is 6-1 with an ERA of 4.19 for the season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.00 in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Waechter for Tampa has had a poor season. He is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.63 for the season. Here are a few trends for this game:
<LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East. <LI class=more>Devil Rays are 7-20 in Waechter's last 27 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 3-13 in Waechter's last 16 night starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-6 in Waechter's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-6 in Waechter's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-7 in Waechter's last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-8 in Waechter's last 9 starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-10 in Waechter's last 11 road starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-11 in Waechter's last 12 starts as a road underdog. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-7 in Waechter's last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 starts as an underdog of +201 or greater. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 starts as a road underdog of +201 or greater. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-6 in Waechter's last 6 starts vs. American League East. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-4 in Waechter's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 Thursday starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.<LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 3-0 in their last 3 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 66-11 in their last 77 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 78-23 in their last 101 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 50-17 in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 69-27 in their last 96 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a home favorite. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 37-15 in their last 52 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 41-18 in their last 59 home games. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League East. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 37-17 in their last 54 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 25-12 in their last 37 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 59-29 in their last 88 games as a favorite.
Look at the trends above in red. Alot of people ask about favorites over -200. Well Boston does well as a favorite over -200 as you can see. Of course, my pick is -1.5.
5. 2 units- Houston under 8 -105
No real great stats for this play, just that the ASTROS suckkkk lately!! They have been limited to just 1 run in both of their last 2 games against weak pitchers!! In Pettitte's last 2 starts, they were shut out once, and only scored 3 runs in other start and Pettitte pitched a complete game shutout in that game!
Tony Armas for Washington has been a solid pitcher of late! He is 4-2 for the season with an ERA of 3.08. Armas is 2-0 with an OUTSTANDING ERA of 1.50. Here are a few trends:
<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Astros last 5 day games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Astros last 3 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 9-2-0 in Astros last 11 Thursday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-2 in Pettitte's last 8 starts overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Pettitte's last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-2 in Pettitte's last 8 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-2 in Pettitte's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.<LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Nationals last 7 vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Nationals last 5 games following a win.<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Armas' last 4 starts as a home underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-1 in Armas' last 8 starts vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 21-5-1 in Armas' last 27 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Well that is it for today, but one more note. I am actually betting on Houston today as well, but it is just a hometown pick. I love Philadelphia as well, but I am a little worried about how they have played lately.
Good luck and lets bring home the cash AGAIN!!
Yesterday I went 2-1-1 and was up +1.44 units!!!
1. 4 unit play- Detroit under 9.5 and -110
Normally, I wouldnt make an under a 4 unit play, but I have to make an exception here!! For the year, the under is an ASTOUNDING 28-15 in all Detroit games. Boy has MIKE MAROTH improved over a few years ago when he was a 20 game loser!! This year he is 5-2 with an ERA of 2.45 for Detroit. Meanwhile, Danny Bautista for Kansas City hasnt pitched that poorly either! He is 0-2, but his ERA is a respectable 3.75 for the season. Here a few trends to make this game an under as well!
<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Tigers last 4 day games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Tigers last 7 road games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. American League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Tigers last 5 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.<LI class=more>Under is 16-5-0 in Tigers last 21 during game 4 of a series. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-3 in Tigers last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-3 in Tigers last 29 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Tigers last 7 games following a win. <LI class=more>Under is 36-15-5 in Tigers last 56 on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 11-5-0 in Tigers last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 27-13-3 in Tigers last 43 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Maroth's last 7 starts as a road favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 17-5-2 in Maroth's last 24 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 17-5-2 in Maroth's last 24 starts as a favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 20-6-2 in Maroth's last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Under is 39-12-1 in Maroth's last 52 starts vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2-0 in Maroth's last 8 Thursday starts. <LI class=more>Under is 21-7-2 in Maroth's last 30 day starts. <LI class=more>Under is 25-9-1 in Maroth's last 35 road starts. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-2 in Maroth's last 28 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7-1 in Maroth's last 27 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 37-14-2 in Maroth's last 53 starts on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 40-16-2 in Maroth's last 58 starts overall. <LI class=more>Under is 36-16-3 in Maroth's last 55 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 36-17-3 in Maroth's last 56 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 home starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 starts as a home underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 starts vs. American League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Bautista's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Bautista's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2-0 in Bautista's last 8 starts on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3-0 in Bautista's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-0 in Bautista's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
NOW IF THAT were not enough, check out the stats for the Homeplate umpire tomorrow when he was behind the dish!
Umpire Trends - Chuck Meriwether
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblUmpire cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
- <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-1 in Meriwether's last 4 day games behind home plate vs. Kansas City. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Meriwether's last 3 Thursday games behind home plate vs. Detroit. <LI class=morehot>Under is 11-1-1 in Meriwether's last 13 games behind home plate.
- Under is 5-1-0 in Meriwether's last 6 Thursday games behind home plate.
Overall, here is Chuck Meriweather's record. He has behind the plate 8 times this season. 7 games have gone under and only 1 game went over!!!:money:
2. 3 unit play- Detroit -1.5 runs and -135
Only slightly worried about this play ONLY because of the strength of the under play in this game. This game could EASILY only have 3 or 4 runs scored TOTAL!! But hopefully, it will be 4-0 Detroit win. Some of my reasoning for this pick is above, but here are some more selling points!!!
Mike Maroth is 5-2 for the season with an ERA of 2.45. Detroit has the best record in baseball at 32-14 and Kansas City has the worst record at 10-34. Kansas City has lost 1 straight games and Detroit has WON 13 out of their last 14 games! I have been on at least 10 of those games myself!! Only game that they lost in that stretch was against a pretty hot at the time Cincinnati team! Here are a few trends as if you need them!!
<LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 day games. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite.<LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in Maroth's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in Maroth's last 3 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in Maroth's last 4 starts as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-1 in Maroth's last 5 starts during game 4 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-1 in Maroth's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.<LI class=morecool>Royals are 5-21 in their last 26 games as a home underdog of +201 or greater. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.<LI class=morecool>Royals are 1-4 in Bautista's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-3 in Bautista's last 3 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Royals are 0-3 in Bautista's last 3 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
The following trends are not as strong, but give you an idea about how hot of a team Detroit has been since the first week of the season!!
<LI class=more>Tigers are 25-7 in their last 32 overall. <LI class=more>Tigers are 21-6 in their last 27 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Tigers are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Tigers are 21-7 in their last 28 games as a favorite. <LI class=more>Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. American League Central. <LI class=more>Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 road games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a win. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-16 in their last 51 games on Grass.:money8: :money8: :money8:
3. 2 unit play- Seattle -143 with Meche and Lopez conditional starters!
I hate to bet on a weak Seattle team, but they have been on a nice run lately and the pitching matchup here actually probably calls for a 5 unit play. But I cant post a 5 unit play on ANY team from Seattle!!
First of all, Gil Meche from Seattle is 4-2 for the season with an ERA of 4.30. But more importantly, he is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, on the other end of the world is Rodrigo Lopez is 1-7 with an ERA of 8.07 for the season and he is 0-3 with a 9.33 ERA in his last 3 starts.
That alone should be all that you need, but there is more!! Seattle has won 5 out of their last 6 games and Baltimore has lost 4 out of their last 5 games. Here are a few trends to solidify the pick
<LI class=morecool>Orioles are 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League West. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-8 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.<LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-4 in Lopez's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-6 in Lopez's last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-6 in Lopez's last 6 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-6 in Lopez's last 6 starts. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-5 in Lopez's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 road starts. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 0-3 in Lopez's last 3 starts as a road underdog.<LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in their last 3 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in their last 3 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 home games. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.<LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in Meche's last 3 starts. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 3-0 in Meche's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 6-1 in Meche's last 7 starts as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 5-1 in Meche's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Mariners are 4-1 in Meche's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
The following trends are not as strong, but good regardless
<LI class=more>Orioles are 16-37 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. <LI class=more>Orioles are 16-38 in their last 54 day games. <LI class=more>Orioles are 15-36 in their last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Orioles are 15-44 in their last 59 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 4 of a series.<LI class=more>:money8: :money8:
4. 1 unit play- Boston -1.5 runs and -138
Most would probably make this play at least a 3 unit play, but I am worried about the Red Sox lately. For some reason, I sense an extended losing streak coming on soon. They looked pretty bad against the Yankees over the past 2 days. Therefore, I am limiting a usually high pick to 1 unit today!
Josh Beckett is on the mound for the Red Sox. He is 6-1 with an ERA of 4.19 for the season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.00 in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Waechter for Tampa has had a poor season. He is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.63 for the season. Here are a few trends for this game:
<LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East. <LI class=more>Devil Rays are 7-20 in Waechter's last 27 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 3-13 in Waechter's last 16 night starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-6 in Waechter's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-6 in Waechter's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-7 in Waechter's last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-8 in Waechter's last 9 starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-10 in Waechter's last 11 road starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 1-11 in Waechter's last 12 starts as a road underdog. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-7 in Waechter's last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 starts as an underdog of +201 or greater. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 starts as a road underdog of +201 or greater. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-6 in Waechter's last 6 starts vs. American League East. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-4 in Waechter's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 Thursday starts. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-3 in Waechter's last 3 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Devil Rays are 0-5 in Waechter's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.<LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 3-0 in their last 3 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 66-11 in their last 77 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 78-23 in their last 101 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 50-17 in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 69-27 in their last 96 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a home favorite. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 37-15 in their last 52 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 41-18 in their last 59 home games. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League East. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 37-17 in their last 54 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 25-12 in their last 37 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 59-29 in their last 88 games as a favorite.
Look at the trends above in red. Alot of people ask about favorites over -200. Well Boston does well as a favorite over -200 as you can see. Of course, my pick is -1.5.
5. 2 units- Houston under 8 -105
No real great stats for this play, just that the ASTROS suckkkk lately!! They have been limited to just 1 run in both of their last 2 games against weak pitchers!! In Pettitte's last 2 starts, they were shut out once, and only scored 3 runs in other start and Pettitte pitched a complete game shutout in that game!
Tony Armas for Washington has been a solid pitcher of late! He is 4-2 for the season with an ERA of 3.08. Armas is 2-0 with an OUTSTANDING ERA of 1.50. Here are a few trends:
<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Astros last 5 day games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Astros last 3 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 9-2-0 in Astros last 11 Thursday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-2 in Pettitte's last 8 starts overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Pettitte's last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-2 in Pettitte's last 8 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-2 in Pettitte's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.<LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Nationals last 7 vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Nationals last 5 games following a win.<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Armas' last 4 starts as a home underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-1 in Armas' last 8 starts vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 21-5-1 in Armas' last 27 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Well that is it for today, but one more note. I am actually betting on Houston today as well, but it is just a hometown pick. I love Philadelphia as well, but I am a little worried about how they have played lately.
Good luck and lets bring home the cash AGAIN!!
