Morning all. Kicking myself for not betting on Florida and Kansas City. Both were catching WAY too much last night. And Minnesota was a gift just by looking at the team and pitcher splits. Oh well, you live, you WILL learn, or you won't survive at this game.
Went 1-4-1 and blew 1298 thanks to the White Sox laying a turd against shitty Lilly. Head-scratcher.
Some UMP club members are out there today and I'll be on all of them.
Ramirez is making his first start since April 5 and his rehab start was not impressive. Marshall hasn't gotten out of the fourth inning in two of his last three starts. Cuzzi is a non-factor. These pens are downright atrocious. Braves 18-8 O/U in away games coming into this week, I'm sure that's gone up with their offensive numbers. Taking a stab that this gets to at least 5-5...
The plays: OVER 9.5 +102 - 250 to win 255
OVER 10.5 + 136 - 300 to win 408
Eddings going in DC today, as Pops at the RX said earlier, 'He'll make Hill look like Ryan'... Lowe threw seven scoreless innings against Anaheim Sunday and his ERA indicates that he's pitching better than his record. He should love Washington with that sinker.
The play: UNDER 8.5 -111 - 555 to win 500
The Marlins have played consecutive home UNDERS just once all year (vs. Washington in mid-April) and only had one home UNDER all month before last night's 5-1 win over the Mets. Don't worry, the D-Train could derail right before our eyes today. He's lost five straight but he IS 8-1 against the Mets. No Delgado for New York. Glavine hasn't won six straight starts since 2002 and the heat and humidity could get to him today in south Florida, something he hasn't had to deal with all season. He's lost six straight decisions against Florida and hasn't won in Miami since - you guessed it - 2002. On pitching stats in the matchup alone, gotta take a stab at the Fish. I also like OVER based on team splits. Been doing well when I go against the correlations so let's try it again.
The plays: Florida plus 136 - 300 to win 408
OVER 7.5 -115 - 460 to win 400
Sidney Ponson starts for the Cardinals for the first time since May 7, when he left after the third inning at Florida due to a muscle strain in his right elbow that landed him on the 15-day disabled list. St. Louis is also suffering from a virus or bacteria that has gotten no less than half of the roster sick. I'll take a stab at Park and the Fathers as a dog in this spot.
THe play: San Diego plus 123 - 400 to win 492
Reliford going tonight in Cincy. The Snakes shut out the Reds last night and Cruz was strong against Atlanta last time out by locating his curveball and hitting 97 on the gun. Harang went the distance last time in losing 1-0 at Detroit; his own throwing error in the 8th led to the only run. He allowed just five hits and one walk while fanning nine. He's second behind Arroyo on the Reds staff and should keep this one low-scoring. The 6:00 start is an odd time and that stadium is configured in a way where the hitters will have trouble seeing the pitches come in for the better part of 90 minutes at the start of the game because of the twilight start. This looks VERY tasty (can't believe I'm saying that about a Reds U at home!)...
The play: ARZ/CIN UNDER 10 -115 - 920 to win 800
Lean to Maholm and the Pirates tonight, as he's been solid in six straight starts. But I'm a little disappointed in the line, as they've somehow got him favored over Houston's staff leader in wins. Gotta pass, as there is little value in either side here.
Need to see another start from Cain before I'm convinced last time was a season-changer (or an aberration)...
Once again, not sure where they're coming up with this price on the Yankees. I wouldn't favor them this much against ANY team in AAA at this point, let alone the Royals. As much as people talk shit about how bad they are, this is still a major-league team and I do believe they are better than their record indicates. Wang got roughed up for seven runs and nine hits over six-plus innings in a 9-5 loss to Boston last time; those numbers are season-highs. The first time he faced KC, he gave up five runs and eight hits over six innings and did not receive a decision on April 11. Affeldt is capable if he can avoid the big inning that's plagued him all season. They'll have to outscore the Yankees but it can happen.
The plays: Kansas City plus 325 - 200 to win 650
2teams - Kansas City +320/ OVER 10 -125 - 250 to win 1640
Contreras gave up four ER Sunday in his last start, his first off the DL. Janssen has been winning but was far from impressive against Tampa the last time out. Hernandez is a club-member and I'll stab at the OVER here again.
The play: CWS/TOR OVER 9 -122 - 366 to win 300
Byrd has gotten better since a rocky April but I don't trust him against this Tiger offense despite his career success against them. Verlander was awesome last time in Kansas City, hitting 99 in the 9th inning. He's gone 17 straight innings without allowing a run. Tonight, Darling isn't one to give him a whole lot, as he's 23-9 O/U in the AL since 2004. The Tribe can hit the fastball and me thinks the youngun gets a little frustrated at the lack of calls on the close pitches.
The plays: Cleveland plus 144 - 300 to win 432
OVER 9 -115 - 345 to win 300
2teams - Cle +39/OVER 9.5 +110 - 300.00 to Win 1,205.70 USD
Danley 8-14 O/U in the AL since 2004; Zito's ERA is below 1 this month and Loe has held Oakland to a .224 BA in 13 IP this season (2.08 ERA).
The play: UNDER 9.5 even - 500 to win 500
Everyone I've talked to says Jered Weaver has all-world stuff. He's making his MLB debut tonight in place of Gregg. He was 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA at Salt Lake, fanning 66 while walking 8. He had 27 1/3 scoreless innings at one point and should do just fine against an Oriole lineup that's suddenly struggling to score much. Bedard has been erratic all season, and he gave up 8 ER to Seattle last time. His ERA in May is 6.84 and he's only gotten to the seventh inning once this month.
THe play: Anaheim -128 - 512 to win 400
Good luck all!
:smoker2:
Went 1-4-1 and blew 1298 thanks to the White Sox laying a turd against shitty Lilly. Head-scratcher.
Some UMP club members are out there today and I'll be on all of them.
Ramirez is making his first start since April 5 and his rehab start was not impressive. Marshall hasn't gotten out of the fourth inning in two of his last three starts. Cuzzi is a non-factor. These pens are downright atrocious. Braves 18-8 O/U in away games coming into this week, I'm sure that's gone up with their offensive numbers. Taking a stab that this gets to at least 5-5...
The plays: OVER 9.5 +102 - 250 to win 255
OVER 10.5 + 136 - 300 to win 408
Eddings going in DC today, as Pops at the RX said earlier, 'He'll make Hill look like Ryan'... Lowe threw seven scoreless innings against Anaheim Sunday and his ERA indicates that he's pitching better than his record. He should love Washington with that sinker.
The play: UNDER 8.5 -111 - 555 to win 500
The Marlins have played consecutive home UNDERS just once all year (vs. Washington in mid-April) and only had one home UNDER all month before last night's 5-1 win over the Mets. Don't worry, the D-Train could derail right before our eyes today. He's lost five straight but he IS 8-1 against the Mets. No Delgado for New York. Glavine hasn't won six straight starts since 2002 and the heat and humidity could get to him today in south Florida, something he hasn't had to deal with all season. He's lost six straight decisions against Florida and hasn't won in Miami since - you guessed it - 2002. On pitching stats in the matchup alone, gotta take a stab at the Fish. I also like OVER based on team splits. Been doing well when I go against the correlations so let's try it again.
The plays: Florida plus 136 - 300 to win 408
OVER 7.5 -115 - 460 to win 400
Sidney Ponson starts for the Cardinals for the first time since May 7, when he left after the third inning at Florida due to a muscle strain in his right elbow that landed him on the 15-day disabled list. St. Louis is also suffering from a virus or bacteria that has gotten no less than half of the roster sick. I'll take a stab at Park and the Fathers as a dog in this spot.
THe play: San Diego plus 123 - 400 to win 492
Reliford going tonight in Cincy. The Snakes shut out the Reds last night and Cruz was strong against Atlanta last time out by locating his curveball and hitting 97 on the gun. Harang went the distance last time in losing 1-0 at Detroit; his own throwing error in the 8th led to the only run. He allowed just five hits and one walk while fanning nine. He's second behind Arroyo on the Reds staff and should keep this one low-scoring. The 6:00 start is an odd time and that stadium is configured in a way where the hitters will have trouble seeing the pitches come in for the better part of 90 minutes at the start of the game because of the twilight start. This looks VERY tasty (can't believe I'm saying that about a Reds U at home!)...
The play: ARZ/CIN UNDER 10 -115 - 920 to win 800
Lean to Maholm and the Pirates tonight, as he's been solid in six straight starts. But I'm a little disappointed in the line, as they've somehow got him favored over Houston's staff leader in wins. Gotta pass, as there is little value in either side here.
Need to see another start from Cain before I'm convinced last time was a season-changer (or an aberration)...
Once again, not sure where they're coming up with this price on the Yankees. I wouldn't favor them this much against ANY team in AAA at this point, let alone the Royals. As much as people talk shit about how bad they are, this is still a major-league team and I do believe they are better than their record indicates. Wang got roughed up for seven runs and nine hits over six-plus innings in a 9-5 loss to Boston last time; those numbers are season-highs. The first time he faced KC, he gave up five runs and eight hits over six innings and did not receive a decision on April 11. Affeldt is capable if he can avoid the big inning that's plagued him all season. They'll have to outscore the Yankees but it can happen.
The plays: Kansas City plus 325 - 200 to win 650
2teams - Kansas City +320/ OVER 10 -125 - 250 to win 1640
Contreras gave up four ER Sunday in his last start, his first off the DL. Janssen has been winning but was far from impressive against Tampa the last time out. Hernandez is a club-member and I'll stab at the OVER here again.
The play: CWS/TOR OVER 9 -122 - 366 to win 300
Byrd has gotten better since a rocky April but I don't trust him against this Tiger offense despite his career success against them. Verlander was awesome last time in Kansas City, hitting 99 in the 9th inning. He's gone 17 straight innings without allowing a run. Tonight, Darling isn't one to give him a whole lot, as he's 23-9 O/U in the AL since 2004. The Tribe can hit the fastball and me thinks the youngun gets a little frustrated at the lack of calls on the close pitches.
The plays: Cleveland plus 144 - 300 to win 432
OVER 9 -115 - 345 to win 300
2teams - Cle +39/OVER 9.5 +110 - 300.00 to Win 1,205.70 USD
Danley 8-14 O/U in the AL since 2004; Zito's ERA is below 1 this month and Loe has held Oakland to a .224 BA in 13 IP this season (2.08 ERA).
The play: UNDER 9.5 even - 500 to win 500
Everyone I've talked to says Jered Weaver has all-world stuff. He's making his MLB debut tonight in place of Gregg. He was 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA at Salt Lake, fanning 66 while walking 8. He had 27 1/3 scoreless innings at one point and should do just fine against an Oriole lineup that's suddenly struggling to score much. Bedard has been erratic all season, and he gave up 8 ER to Seattle last time. His ERA in May is 6.84 and he's only gotten to the seventh inning once this month.
THe play: Anaheim -128 - 512 to win 400
Good luck all!
:smoker2:
