Consider fading this Sunday card....

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

No dramatics here, I've just been stinking up the tracker forum of late, hard to take offense at anyone who's looking to fade me. Been playing my stuff lighter and tailing some of the more underrated cappers around here, only thing saving my ass of late. I was up over 20 units (all 1 unit plays) not long ago, now barely up over 6, that's 70% of your profit out the friggin' window. And honestly don't think the end is nowhere in sight either, why would I suddenly just get smarter? Anyway I can't help but whine when I am losing like this, seems to make it go down a little easier if I can cry about it, LOL. If you have any of these plays you might be in trouble today:

TB U10- (-103)
LAD O9 (+111)
SF U8- (-105)
Hous O9- (+108)
St Louis +105
Houston +103
Baltimore +146

Any opinions on these, O's seem to be a nice price from what I am looking at. Who knows though, lately I can't pick a winner if the bookie gave me two picks per game and I had tomorrow's newspaper in my hands.

Illini · May 28, 2006

You can get my Cardinals at +111 at 5 Dimes in the reduced juice section. I'm staying away from it, because I consider it a complete toss-up. But the Cardinals have only lost one series all year, and this is the rubber game.

I might play the Pirates with their ace on the mound and the Astros struggling like they are.

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

Yeah I think the Cards find a way to win tomorrow too, if it is a toss up we got + money on our side of it. As for Pitt, Perez has it in him but hasn't looked much like an ace this year, he's had bigtime control problems. He has pitched well against the Astros in his short career but they do well against lefties this year at the plate, think this game is close to a toss up as well. Better than the side I like that game to go over. They used a lot of arms yesterday in that marathon and neither starter has been lighting it up this year anyway, Astros bullpen is horrible even when fresh, LOL. Good luck with your plays sir, thanks for the looks.

Illini · May 28, 2006

Good luck to you, Pat. I'm not playing much today. Looks like a tough schedule to beat. White Sox look decent to me, but I think I'll stay away from Pittsburgh.

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

Thanks Illini, I could use all the luck I can muster right now, been a horrible 10 days or so. I looked hard at CWS and I do think they are probably going to snap back but can't remember why I laid off them now. This card is already too big for me the way I am running, should be sitting on the rail instead of hitting 6 and 7 plays a day.

Illini · May 28, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
Thanks Illini, I could use all the luck I can muster right now, been a horrible 10 days or so. I looked hard at CWS and I do think they are probably going to snap back today but can't remember why I laid off them now. This card is too big for me now already anyway the way I am running. Should be sitting on the rail if I was smart....

yeah, but once a gambler, always a gambler. Next best thing to winning a bet is losing a bet. Or so they say. You're still up, so fire away! Are you a pro bettor?

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

Illini said:
Are you a pro bettor?

One thing for sure I am not is a pro capper. I am more proficient at betting against the books than I am as a pure capper if you know what I mean. It's when I think I can outcap folks that I get in trouble. Don't get me wrong, I am fairly consistant and can usually grind out a small win during the year but you will never see me up amongst the top cappers in any sport. Very average if I say so myself, hell some sports I can beat and not know 10 people in the entire league, LOL. Relying solely on capping games is not how I try to earn in this business but I love the competitiveness of it.

BTW been following your Vegas threads, very interesting. I did something a little similar, instead of Vegas though I moved to Biloxi on the spur of the moment after a nasty divorce. With other things going on it was a good time for me to start over. If I see you at the party then I hope we get a chance to chat, heard a lot of good things about you from other people. Peace man.

Illini · May 28, 2006

I had a real good day yesterday, and didn't want to give any of it back. So I laid off of the Heat and the A's, and it cost me more profit. Sometimes, you just have to say screw it, and pull the trigger.

Illini · May 28, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
One thing for sure I am not is a pro capper. I am more proficient at betting against the books than I am as a pure capper if you know what I mean. It's when I think I can outcap folks that I get in trouble. Don't get me wrong, I am fairly consistant and can usually grind out a small win during the year but you will never see me up amongst the top cappers in any sport. Very average if I say so myself, hell some sports I can beat and not know 10 people in the entire league. Relying on capping games is not how I do my earning in this business but I love the competitiveness of it.

BTW been following your Vegas threads, very interesting. I did something a little similar, instead of Vegas though I moved to Biloxi on the spur of the moment after a nasty divorce. Was in trouble with the law, got a divorce and had the IRS on my ass, time for me to start over. If I see you at the party then I hope we get a chance to chat, heard a lot of good things about you from other people. Peace man.

I'll look forward to sharing a few beers with you. I've heard good things about you also. By the way, I left Vegas about as quickly as I moved there. I liked Vegas okay, and have no regrets, but I don't think I'll ever live there again. I am still searching for my place in life. Pretty heartbroken at the moment, as I just found out Friday that I didn't get a 75K job. One that I thought was almost a sure thing. I don't make a lot at my current job, and I need all the money I can get right now, so I have to be pretty selective with my plays. Probably too selective.

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

Scared money never wins, you got +EV then pull the trigger. When hot you don't want to get timid with your bets my friend, LOL. This conversation reminds me of this lady that used to come to my poker games. She was clueless but always did the opposite of what she should have been doing. If she was red hot and up a few dollars she would want to pull out before dinner, to her she wanted to lock up her profit and leave while she was ahead. On the days when she couldn't win and had no luck she would stay for 3 days and lose thousands of dollars. No exaggeration! She would lose her friggin' ass and stay right in that seat playing and playing and playing.

It's amazing how much of that thought process goes around, especially in poker. Certainly isn't just her. People play longer and more hours when losing and running bad, yet when hot and catching cards they look for reasons to get out with their "profit". Finally told her one day, Alice if you leave early to lock up $300 and $400 hundred dollar wins on your good days but stay and lose $5k on your cold days you can see this will not be a very profitable hobby for you. Play longer when running good and play less when you are running bad, unfortunately most people do just the opposite. Not sure how I got on that story, LOL, it's late and I am rambling....

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

Oh, if you ever head this way for some getaway time get my email addy or phone # from Fishhead, think you would like it. Biloxi is a very nice place for young earners in this business. Poker is much easier here than Vegas, much much easier IMO. The whole lifestyle is much slower as well. I couldn't handle Vegas to live but I can handle this area. Have you ever been here Illini?

Illini · May 28, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
Scared money never wins, you got +EV then pull the trigger. When hot you don't want to get timid with your bets my friend, LOL. This conversation reminds me of this lady that used to come to my poker games. She was clueless but always did the opposite of what she should have been doing. If she was red hot and up a few dollars she would want to pull out before dinner, to her she wanted to lock up her profit and leave while she was ahead. On the days when she couldn't win and had no luck she would stay for 3 days and lose thousands of dollars. No exaggeration! She would lose her friggin' ass and stay right in that seat playing and playing and playing.

It's amazing how much of that thought process goes around, especially in poker. Certainly isn't just her. People play longer and more hours when losing and running bad, yet when hot and catching cards they look for reasons to get out with their "profit". Finally told her one day, Alice if you leave early to lock up $300 and $400 hundred dollar wins on your good days but stay and lose $5k on your cold days you can see this will not be a very profitable hobby for you. Play longer when running good and play less when you are running bad, unfortunately most people do just the opposite. Not sure how I got on that story, LOL, it's late and I am rambling....

It's a human illness. People hope when they should fear, and they fear when they should hope. My dad doesn't bet sports, but he invests in stocks, options, etc. He told me about a book that he read. Reminscinces of a Stock Operator. This guy in the early 1920's, I believe, started with little and made 3 million. 3 million at that time was an ungodly amount of money, and this guy was the best of the best. He bought cotton futures, and bought more and more as it went down, and eventually lost everything. He said that he had rules that he had always followed, but the one thing he could not protect against was his human emotion. He learned from it, and was so good that he eventually made it all back starting from scratch again. But his story was proof to me that even the most disciplined bettors and investors can go on tilt if they don't actively monitor their emotions, and spend time everyday thinking about how they affect their decisions. I also read in one book, I think it was one of Bob McCune's.....that the best handicapper he'd ever known went bust on a cold streak and waited tables for the rest of his life. Sad stuff about the destructive nature within ourselves.

Illini · May 28, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
Oh, if you ever head this way for some getaway time get my email addy or phone # from Fishhead, think you would like it. Biloxi is a very nice place for young earners in this business. Poker is much easier here than Vegas, much much easier IMO. The whole lifestyle is much slower as well. I couldn't handle Vegas to live but I can handle this area. Have you ever been here Illini?

I haven't been there yet, but it sounds like fun. I'm actually probably going to drive down to NC very soon to see some friends. Maybe I'll make it a 10 day trip and spend 3 or 4 days playing poker down there with you. I'll let you know, but I'm pretty spur of the moment, and that sounds like a hell of an idea. Are the casinos all up and running again?

gynecologist · May 28, 2006

Biloxi?? Mississippi?

I like McIrish alot, hope Katrina didn't hurt em too bad? Being from
Biloxi I am afraid to find out. He seems pretty upbeat on here so
he must be cool.

Illini · May 28, 2006

gynecologist said:
Biloxi?? Mississippi?

I like McIrish alot, hope Katrina didn't hurt em too bad? Being from
Biloxi I am afraid to find out. He seems pretty upbeat on here so
he must be cool.

Gyno- been meaning to ask you this. Do you really spend your days looking at vaginas from 8 to 5?

gynecologist · May 28, 2006

Illini said:
Gyno- been meaning to ask you this. Do you really spend your days looking at vaginas from 8 to 5?

Not really. LOL :dancefool

Am I a gynecologist actually "no" but
am I a vagina expert yes!! :toast:

gyn:nopityA:

Illini · May 28, 2006

gynecologist said:
Not really. LOL Am I a gynecologist actually "no" but
am I a vagina expert yes!! :toast:

gyn:nopityA:

:lolBIG:

silver7 · May 28, 2006

Pat Mc

I was stationed in Biloxi eons ago. The Vegas heat is bad but that place is unbearable IMO! Grant you the lifestyle is more laid back, but compared to LV where isn`t it? Hope you & Illini both find your P&C (peace & contentment) in life. I searched my whole life and found it in the strangest place & way. Of the many adages in AA the one that goes "it`s never too late to start over" is most helpful & hopeful to the avg. guy. BOL to both of you.

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

Silver, you're a class act, I've alway had a lot of respect for how you handle yourself. Thanks.

Illini - no, not all the casinos are back open. In fact only a few of them are right now. You got Imperial Palace, Isle Of Capri and Palace open. Of those three only two of them have poker rooms which is all I fool with. And yes you are more than welcome to swing by here on your road trip, just keep me posted sir.

PatrickMcIrish · May 28, 2006

gynecologist said:
Biloxi?? Mississippi?

I like McIrish alot, hope Katrina didn't hurt em too bad? Being from
Biloxi I am afraid to find out. He seems pretty upbeat on here so
he must be cool.

Thanks buddy, I didn't know you were from Biloxi? Where you living now? I still got a home in Florida but I am planning on staying here 6 months of the year at least. I really like it here, this slow pace is more my style. I like distance between myself and people. And no I didn't get hurt here physically or any other way, I was only renting at the time.

:toast: