OK, still a little smashed from last night...
Yesterday went 6-7-1 and blew 401; thanks a lot to shitty Cleveland, making that Verlander look like an All-Star. I'm not that impressed. He throws hard but he doesn't hit his spots. I guess the last three teams he's faced just aren't good enough to take advantage of his mistakes. Now 80-106-5 and down 5471 on the year. Yo-yo ride it's been the last week or so. Thank God for the NBA; I'm 5-0 there this week. Miami all three times and Phoenix both times. Going with the Suns -1 again today; Howard's ankle ain't right and I hope he plays a lot again today cause that injury takes time to heal.
To the bases... Schreiber is close to an OVER club member in D.C. but he's not, and I won't bet OVER with two pitchers who seem to have things going in the right direction. Yes, the Rockies hit Seo hard the other night and it could have easily been a disaster; instead he gave up one unearned run in 7 IP. Will pass here.
TOtal in Miami is surprisingly low with these two clowns going to the hill but the trade to the Mets could be just what El Duque needs and Nolasco looked good (who doesn't though) against the Scrubs earlier in the week.
The Reds forgot how to score. Arroyo is always better against a team the second time around. Gonzalez was recalled from AAA Tucson on Friday. He was 4-3 with a 2.24 ERA in 10 starts for the Sidewinders. He struck out 35 and walked 14 in 60 2/3 IP. He's a ground-ball pitcher who keeps the ball down fairly consistently, helping keep the score down at GABP. And Vanover is one of these guys who will revert to form; he's been an UNDER ump forever until this year. Let's go for the sweep of UNDERS at GABP and I'll try Arroyo in the parlay, though I'm a little surprised at this price as well as 'Zona is playing.
THe plays: UNDER 9.5 -112 in Cincy - 560 to win 500
UNDER 9.5 -115 and Reds -170 - 300 to win 590.79
Fullwood in Philly! He and his 57.0 strike percentage, who last worked a 1-0 game in Oakland with Haren and Lowry. Something's gotta give today. Madson gets his first start since Hamels was called up. He pitched great in relief the other night but he's never been much as a starter. Those seven scoreless innings still lowered his ERA to just 5.98. Meanwhile, Eveland's ERA is still 8.22 and last week he faced these same Phillies, going over 100 pitches in just five innings. Both of these pens are human waste.
The plays: MIL/PHI OVER 11 plus 103 - 400 to win 408
and OVER 10.5 -120 - 480 to win 400
Nieve had his best game of the year last time and might be showing signs of maturity. Same goes for Perez, his best start of the season was Monday in Arizona. Bill Welke has turned in five UNDERS in a row and I'm willing to try it for a small slice today.
The play: Hou/Pitt UNDER 9.5 -115 - 345 to win 300
Merry Christmas in Chicago! The Braves and Flubs turned in their token low-scoring game for the series but even with Smoltz going, that won't happen again today. Smoltz is 15-4 lifetime vs. CHI. The Cubs are calling up a guy from Iowa (Ryu) who was here briefly earlier this month, and appeared in one inning, giving up one run on one hit and striking out two against the Padres. Crawford (11.64 rpg, 60.6 strike percentage, 7-3-1 O/U in 2006, 35-26 since start of 2004) going behind the dish and the last five games he's done at Wrigley dating back to 2003 have all sailed over the posted total.
THe plays: Atlanta -1.5 runs -129 - 387 to win 300
ATL/CHI OVER 9.5 -115 - 575 to win 500
2teams - Atl -212 and OVER 9.5 -125 - 400 to win 659.62
Peavy can't buy a win and Mulder is having problems with walks... I look forward to watching this one but have no opinion whatsoever; I would lean Diego but not UNDER with it being in the daytime and with STL's ability to put up a big number (or at least a crooked one, like they did to get the win yesterday)...
Wright has been pitching well for the Giants lately, winning three straight. But Kim hasn't been bad for Colorado, not bad enough to warrant this price. He faced Frisco seven times last year (2.59 ERA, included were three starts). In Frisco, his ERA was 1.69. I'll bite at this ridiculous price.
The play: Colorado plus 138 - 400 to win 552
Johnson sucks; he's 0-4 with a 9.73 ERA in his last six starts. This could be his last start in the rotation. Detroit is rolling; The Gambler gave up four homers last time in KC and is prone to an occasional bad start. Remember, the ball was carrying well in KC this week with the extra heat. They're willing to give me Detroit at plus-money on the RL, I'll gladly take it...
The play: Detroit -1.5 runs plus 117 - 400 to win 468
Hernandez was solid if not spectacular against Detroit Tuesday, going 5 2/3 and allowing just two runs. He's vastly overpriced today against Wright, who gave up 5 runs in 5 IP last year in his only start against KC. Let's try the Royals to win the series.
The play: KC plus 320 - 200 to win 640
ChiSox have struggled offensively this series and Taubenheim had a respectable MLB debut in Colorado last weekend. Expect him to be solid, if unspectacular, today. Garland has a 6-2 record against Toronto and is better than he has been showing. Wendlestedt is calling strikes at a 64.2 percent clip, close enough to club member status to warrant a small bite.
The play: CWS/TOR UNDER 10.5 even - 250 to win 250
Benson going on three day's rest today (BAL using a 4-man rotation through the first week of June) and Escobar Season has Returned (he's 12-3 vs. BAL with 9 saves in his career).... He's 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in May. The total has plummeted, likely because Timmons has called five straight UNDERS. I'm not interested there. Value lies in the RL (95 cents better than the ML)...
The play: Anaheim -1.5 runs plus 133 - 300 to win 399
Looking at the Holiday card as we speak... I'll be around til the late games start this afternoon if anyone has questions, comments, etc....
GL!
:smoker2:
Yesterday went 6-7-1 and blew 401; thanks a lot to shitty Cleveland, making that Verlander look like an All-Star. I'm not that impressed. He throws hard but he doesn't hit his spots. I guess the last three teams he's faced just aren't good enough to take advantage of his mistakes. Now 80-106-5 and down 5471 on the year. Yo-yo ride it's been the last week or so. Thank God for the NBA; I'm 5-0 there this week. Miami all three times and Phoenix both times. Going with the Suns -1 again today; Howard's ankle ain't right and I hope he plays a lot again today cause that injury takes time to heal.
To the bases... Schreiber is close to an OVER club member in D.C. but he's not, and I won't bet OVER with two pitchers who seem to have things going in the right direction. Yes, the Rockies hit Seo hard the other night and it could have easily been a disaster; instead he gave up one unearned run in 7 IP. Will pass here.
TOtal in Miami is surprisingly low with these two clowns going to the hill but the trade to the Mets could be just what El Duque needs and Nolasco looked good (who doesn't though) against the Scrubs earlier in the week.
The Reds forgot how to score. Arroyo is always better against a team the second time around. Gonzalez was recalled from AAA Tucson on Friday. He was 4-3 with a 2.24 ERA in 10 starts for the Sidewinders. He struck out 35 and walked 14 in 60 2/3 IP. He's a ground-ball pitcher who keeps the ball down fairly consistently, helping keep the score down at GABP. And Vanover is one of these guys who will revert to form; he's been an UNDER ump forever until this year. Let's go for the sweep of UNDERS at GABP and I'll try Arroyo in the parlay, though I'm a little surprised at this price as well as 'Zona is playing.
THe plays: UNDER 9.5 -112 in Cincy - 560 to win 500
UNDER 9.5 -115 and Reds -170 - 300 to win 590.79
Fullwood in Philly! He and his 57.0 strike percentage, who last worked a 1-0 game in Oakland with Haren and Lowry. Something's gotta give today. Madson gets his first start since Hamels was called up. He pitched great in relief the other night but he's never been much as a starter. Those seven scoreless innings still lowered his ERA to just 5.98. Meanwhile, Eveland's ERA is still 8.22 and last week he faced these same Phillies, going over 100 pitches in just five innings. Both of these pens are human waste.
The plays: MIL/PHI OVER 11 plus 103 - 400 to win 408
and OVER 10.5 -120 - 480 to win 400
Nieve had his best game of the year last time and might be showing signs of maturity. Same goes for Perez, his best start of the season was Monday in Arizona. Bill Welke has turned in five UNDERS in a row and I'm willing to try it for a small slice today.
The play: Hou/Pitt UNDER 9.5 -115 - 345 to win 300
Merry Christmas in Chicago! The Braves and Flubs turned in their token low-scoring game for the series but even with Smoltz going, that won't happen again today. Smoltz is 15-4 lifetime vs. CHI. The Cubs are calling up a guy from Iowa (Ryu) who was here briefly earlier this month, and appeared in one inning, giving up one run on one hit and striking out two against the Padres. Crawford (11.64 rpg, 60.6 strike percentage, 7-3-1 O/U in 2006, 35-26 since start of 2004) going behind the dish and the last five games he's done at Wrigley dating back to 2003 have all sailed over the posted total.
THe plays: Atlanta -1.5 runs -129 - 387 to win 300
ATL/CHI OVER 9.5 -115 - 575 to win 500
2teams - Atl -212 and OVER 9.5 -125 - 400 to win 659.62
Peavy can't buy a win and Mulder is having problems with walks... I look forward to watching this one but have no opinion whatsoever; I would lean Diego but not UNDER with it being in the daytime and with STL's ability to put up a big number (or at least a crooked one, like they did to get the win yesterday)...
Wright has been pitching well for the Giants lately, winning three straight. But Kim hasn't been bad for Colorado, not bad enough to warrant this price. He faced Frisco seven times last year (2.59 ERA, included were three starts). In Frisco, his ERA was 1.69. I'll bite at this ridiculous price.
The play: Colorado plus 138 - 400 to win 552
Johnson sucks; he's 0-4 with a 9.73 ERA in his last six starts. This could be his last start in the rotation. Detroit is rolling; The Gambler gave up four homers last time in KC and is prone to an occasional bad start. Remember, the ball was carrying well in KC this week with the extra heat. They're willing to give me Detroit at plus-money on the RL, I'll gladly take it...
The play: Detroit -1.5 runs plus 117 - 400 to win 468
Hernandez was solid if not spectacular against Detroit Tuesday, going 5 2/3 and allowing just two runs. He's vastly overpriced today against Wright, who gave up 5 runs in 5 IP last year in his only start against KC. Let's try the Royals to win the series.
The play: KC plus 320 - 200 to win 640
ChiSox have struggled offensively this series and Taubenheim had a respectable MLB debut in Colorado last weekend. Expect him to be solid, if unspectacular, today. Garland has a 6-2 record against Toronto and is better than he has been showing. Wendlestedt is calling strikes at a 64.2 percent clip, close enough to club member status to warrant a small bite.
The play: CWS/TOR UNDER 10.5 even - 250 to win 250
Benson going on three day's rest today (BAL using a 4-man rotation through the first week of June) and Escobar Season has Returned (he's 12-3 vs. BAL with 9 saves in his career).... He's 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in May. The total has plummeted, likely because Timmons has called five straight UNDERS. I'm not interested there. Value lies in the RL (95 cents better than the ML)...
The play: Anaheim -1.5 runs plus 133 - 300 to win 399
Looking at the Holiday card as we speak... I'll be around til the late games start this afternoon if anyone has questions, comments, etc....
GL!
:smoker2:
