Budworth22 said:
BUD,
Two things immediately come to mind.
1. BIG NAME pitchers garnishing way to much respect in terms of the betting line, as many players will just randomly throw the BIG UNITS, SCHILLINGS, etc., etc of the world into just about every parlay known to exist.........thus making them overpriced.
2. I believe this though is even MORE worthy to take note of then the above and that is finding a relatively UNKNOWN quality pitcher and jumping on his bandwagon and finding great value before others realize it. Scott KAZMIR of the DRAYS is just one example of this..........although that time has passed now. One of the guys that comes to mind for me personally is JASON SCHMIDT early on in his career............as I rode this guy to many wins getting great value before many realized how good this guy was.
Harang
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg0" align="left"><td class="bg0" colspan="36">PITCHING STATS</td></tr> <tr class="bg1" align="center"><td>Year</td><td>Team</td><td>W</td><td>L</td><td>ERA</td><td>G</td><td>GS</td><td>CG</td><td>SHO</td><td>SV</td><td>SVO</td><td>INN</td><td>H</td><td>R</td><td>ER</td><td>HR</td><td>HBP</td><td>BB</td><td>SO</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2002</td><td align="left">OAK</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">4</td><td align="left"> 4.83</td><td align="left">16</td><td align="left">15</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 78.1</td><td align="left">78</td><td align="left">44</td><td align="left">42</td><td align="left">7</td><td align="left">3</td><td align="left">45</td><td align="left">64</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2003</td><td align="left">OAK-CIN</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">6</td><td align="left"> 5.31</td><td align="left">16</td><td align="left">15</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 76.1</td><td align="left">89</td><td align="left">47</td><td align="left">45</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">19</td><td align="left">42</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2004</td><td align="left">CIN</td><td align="left">10</td><td align="left">9</td><td align="left"> 4.86</td><td align="left">28</td><td align="left">28</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 161.0</td><td align="left">177</td><td align="left">90</td><td align="left">87</td><td align="left">26</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">53</td><td align="left">125</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2005</td><td align="left">CIN</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">13</td><td align="left"> 3.83</td><td align="left">32</td><td align="left">32</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 211.2</td><td align="left">217</td><td align="left">93</td><td align="left">90</td><td align="left">22</td><td align="left">8</td><td align="left">51</td><td align="left">163</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2006</td><td align="left">CIN</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">4</td><td align="left"> 3.70</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">2</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 73.0</td><td align="left">73</td><td align="left">39</td><td align="left">30</td><td align="left">8</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">17</td><td align="left">75</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td class="bg4" align="left">TOTAL</td><td class="bg4" align="left"> </td><td class="bg4" align="left">36</td><td class="bg4" align="left">36</td><td class="bg4" align="left"> 4.41</td><td class="bg4" align="left">103</td><td class="bg4" align="left">101</td><td class="bg4" align="left">4</td><td class="bg4" align="left">2</td><td class="bg4" align="left">0</td><td class="bg4" align="left">0</td><td class="bg4" align="left"> 600.1</td><td class="bg4" align="left">634</td><td class="bg4" align="left">313</td><td class="bg4" align="left">294</td><td class="bg4" align="left">74</td><td class="bg4" align="left">17</td><td class="bg4" align="left">185</td><td class="bg4" align="left">469</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg0" align="center"><td colspan="20"> APRIL </td> </tr> <tr class="bg1" valign="top"> <th>DATE</th> <th>TEAM</th> <th>OPP</th> <th>RESULT</th> <th>RECORD</th> <th>SV</th> <th>ERA</th> <th>GS</th> <th>CG</th> <th>SHO</th> <th>IP</th> <th>H</th> <th>R</th> <th>ER</th> <th>HR</th> <th>BB</th> <th>SO</th> <th>HBP</th> <th>WP</th> <th>BK</th> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>04/03</td><td>CIN</td><td>CHC</td><td>L 7-16</td><td>0-1</td><td>0</td><td>10.80</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>5.0</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>04/08</td><td>CIN</td><td>PIT</td><td>W 11-9</td><td>1-1</td><td>0</td><td>8.49</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>6.2</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>04/14</td><td>CIN</td><td>@STL</td><td>W 1-0</td><td>2-1</td><td>0</td><td>5.30</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>7.0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>04/19</td><td>CIN</td><td>FLA</td><td>W 9-8</td><td>2-1</td><td>0</td><td>6.35</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4.0</td><td>9</td><td>5</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>04/23</td><td>CIN</td><td>@MIL</td><td>W 11-0</td><td>3-1</td><td>0</td><td>4.55</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>9.0</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>04/29</td><td>CIN</td><td>HOU</td><td>W 6-3</td><td>4-1</td><td>0</td><td>4.35</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>7.2</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg0" align="center"> <td colspan="20"> MAY </td> </tr> <tr class="bg1" valign="top"> <th>DATE</th> <th>TEAM</th> <th>OPP</th> <th>RESULT</th> <th>RECORD</th> <th>SV</th> <th>ERA</th> <th>GS</th> <th>CG</th> <th>SHO</th> <th>IP</th> <th>H</th> <th>R</th> <th>ER</th> <th>HR</th> <th>BB</th> <th>SO</th> <th>HBP</th> <th>WP</th> <th>BK</th> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>05/04</td><td>CIN</td><td>@COL</td><td>W 7-1</td><td>5-1</td><td>0</td><td>3.78</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>8.1</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>12</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>05/10</td><td>CIN</td><td>WAS</td><td>W 9-6</td><td>5-1</td><td>0</td><td>4.02</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>6.0</td><td>7</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>05/16</td><td>CIN</td><td>@PIT</td><td>L 3-9</td><td>5-2</td><td>0</td><td>4.19</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4.1</td><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>05/21</td><td>CIN</td><td>@DET</td><td>L 0-1</td><td>5-3</td><td>0</td><td>3.82</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>8.0</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>05/27</td><td>CIN</td><td>ARI</td><td>L 0-7</td><td>5-4</td><td>0</td><td>3.70</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>7.0</td><td>8</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>
He's had a very high BABPI so far, but that turns around as many don't realize. he has also recieved poor run support in his last 3. A great ROAD bet, an improving home bet.
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg0" align="left"><td class="bg0" colspan="36">PITCHING STATS</td></tr> <tr class="bg1" align="center"><td>Year</td><td>Team</td><td>W</td><td>L</td><td>ERA</td><td>G</td><td>GS</td><td>CG</td><td>SHO</td><td>SV</td><td>SVO</td><td>INN</td><td>H</td><td>R</td><td>ER</td><td>HR</td><td>HBP</td><td>BB</td><td>SO</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2002</td><td align="left">OAK</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">4</td><td align="left"> 4.83</td><td align="left">16</td><td align="left">15</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 78.1</td><td align="left">78</td><td align="left">44</td><td align="left">42</td><td align="left">7</td><td align="left">3</td><td align="left">45</td><td align="left">64</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2003</td><td align="left">OAK-CIN</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">6</td><td align="left"> 5.31</td><td align="left">16</td><td align="left">15</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 76.1</td><td align="left">89</td><td align="left">47</td><td align="left">45</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">19</td><td align="left">42</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2004</td><td align="left">CIN</td><td align="left">10</td><td align="left">9</td><td align="left"> 4.86</td><td align="left">28</td><td align="left">28</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 161.0</td><td align="left">177</td><td align="left">90</td><td align="left">87</td><td align="left">26</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">53</td><td align="left">125</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2005</td><td align="left">CIN</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">13</td><td align="left"> 3.83</td><td align="left">32</td><td align="left">32</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 211.2</td><td align="left">217</td><td align="left">93</td><td align="left">90</td><td align="left">22</td><td align="left">8</td><td align="left">51</td><td align="left">163</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td align="left">2006</td><td align="left">CIN</td><td align="left">5</td><td align="left">4</td><td align="left"> 3.70</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">11</td><td align="left">2</td><td align="left">1</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left"> 73.0</td><td align="left">73</td><td align="left">39</td><td align="left">30</td><td align="left">8</td><td align="left">0</td><td align="left">17</td><td align="left">75</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td class="bg4" align="left">TOTAL</td><td class="bg4" align="left"> </td><td class="bg4" align="left">36</td><td class="bg4" align="left">36</td><td class="bg4" align="left"> 4.41</td><td class="bg4" align="left">103</td><td class="bg4" align="left">101</td><td class="bg4" align="left">4</td><td class="bg4" align="left">2</td><td class="bg4" align="left">0</td><td class="bg4" align="left">0</td><td class="bg4" align="left"> 600.1</td><td class="bg4" align="left">634</td><td class="bg4" align="left">313</td><td class="bg4" align="left">294</td><td class="bg4" align="left">74</td><td class="bg4" align="left">17</td><td class="bg4" align="left">185</td><td class="bg4" align="left">469</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg0" align="center"><td colspan="20"> APRIL </td> </tr> <tr class="bg1" valign="top"> <th>DATE</th> <th>TEAM</th> <th>OPP</th> <th>RESULT</th> <th>RECORD</th> <th>SV</th> <th>ERA</th> <th>GS</th> <th>CG</th> <th>SHO</th> <th>IP</th> <th>H</th> <th>R</th> <th>ER</th> <th>HR</th> <th>BB</th> <th>SO</th> <th>HBP</th> <th>WP</th> <th>BK</th> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>04/03</td><td>CIN</td><td>CHC</td><td>L 7-16</td><td>0-1</td><td>0</td><td>10.80</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>5.0</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>04/08</td><td>CIN</td><td>PIT</td><td>W 11-9</td><td>1-1</td><td>0</td><td>8.49</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>6.2</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>04/14</td><td>CIN</td><td>@STL</td><td>W 1-0</td><td>2-1</td><td>0</td><td>5.30</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>7.0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>04/19</td><td>CIN</td><td>FLA</td><td>W 9-8</td><td>2-1</td><td>0</td><td>6.35</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4.0</td><td>9</td><td>5</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>04/23</td><td>CIN</td><td>@MIL</td><td>W 11-0</td><td>3-1</td><td>0</td><td>4.55</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>9.0</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>04/29</td><td>CIN</td><td>HOU</td><td>W 6-3</td><td>4-1</td><td>0</td><td>4.35</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>7.2</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg0" align="center"> <td colspan="20"> MAY </td> </tr> <tr class="bg1" valign="top"> <th>DATE</th> <th>TEAM</th> <th>OPP</th> <th>RESULT</th> <th>RECORD</th> <th>SV</th> <th>ERA</th> <th>GS</th> <th>CG</th> <th>SHO</th> <th>IP</th> <th>H</th> <th>R</th> <th>ER</th> <th>HR</th> <th>BB</th> <th>SO</th> <th>HBP</th> <th>WP</th> <th>BK</th> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>05/04</td><td>CIN</td><td>@COL</td><td>W 7-1</td><td>5-1</td><td>0</td><td>3.78</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>8.1</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>12</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>05/10</td><td>CIN</td><td>WAS</td><td>W 9-6</td><td>5-1</td><td>0</td><td>4.02</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>6.0</td><td>7</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>05/16</td><td>CIN</td><td>@PIT</td><td>L 3-9</td><td>5-2</td><td>0</td><td>4.19</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4.1</td><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>05/21</td><td>CIN</td><td>@DET</td><td>L 0-1</td><td>5-3</td><td>0</td><td>3.82</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>8.0</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>05/27</td><td>CIN</td><td>ARI</td><td>L 0-7</td><td>5-4</td><td>0</td><td>3.70</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>7.0</td><td>8</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>
He's had a very high BABPI so far, but that turns around as many don't realize. he has also recieved poor run support in his last 3. A great ROAD bet, an improving home bet.
I'm actually gonna bet him today Ice. My bet however is more on Minnesota and against Weaver than a backing of Baker. I know you live close to Minnesota, have you seen this kid pitch? I would think that allowing 2+ homers in 4 consecutive starts is a problem indicative of tipping pitches or repetitive pitch sequences, and not stuff or mechanics. He's 25 and his Catcher is 23 or 24. That really makes me wonder.
Felix Hernandez is experiencing reptitive pitch syndrome, as detailed in the blog... the USS MARINER
Felix Hernandez is experiencing reptitive pitch syndrome, as detailed in the blog... the USS MARINER
maybe once against the Tigers (they are the only games I really watch). I am just a big numbers guy and I think he is "sleeper". Not saying he is the next coming but someone I am keeping my eye on Do you check out baseball prospectus?Budworth22 said:
Got to get back to work. good luck for us tonite:toast:
