Thanks Sureguy...
Taking a flyer on the Dodgers at this price. Tomko won four straight starts before losing to Washington last week in his shortest outing of the season. He'll face Atlanta's Tim Hudson, who yielded six hits and five runs in four innings against the Dodgers on Opening Day. Los Angeles has won 10 of 12 and is swinging the bat better than anyone in the league. The Braves have no right being this big of a favorite in this spot and the value lies with the Dodgers.
The play: LA plus 144 - 300 to win 432
Pittsburgh has thrashed the Brewers in the first two of this four-game series. The Pirates have outscored Milwaukee 26-4 and outhit them 35-16 the last two days. The Brewers will turn to Capuano to stop the bleeding. He has 11 consecutive quality starts this season, topping the major leagues. His most recent one was last Friday in Philadelphia in which he gave up seven hits and three earned runs. In his last start, Capuano threw 98 pitches, 68 for strikes. Snell is winning games lately but it's in large part due to good run support. He has given up five runs in each of his last two starts. Last Friday against Houston, he gave up 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings. He's lasted fewer than six innings in four of his last five starts. Lay it with the Brewers.
THe play: Milwaukee -130 - 520 to win 400
Emmel tonight in New York and I love it when OVER umps run into two hot starters - the ump almost always prevail. Emmel is 9-1 O/U this year and is calling 60.5 percent strikes. Webb has 10 quality starts in 11 outings and is 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA. Martinez is 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA. He lost for the first time this season in his last start in Miami, giving up two runs and five hits to the Marlins in seven innings. Webb is white-hot right now, and at this overly-generous price, Arizona is the play. But Webb has traditionally been solid in April and May; this is about the time of year he cools off. I like OVER best of all but will try the parlay, too.
THe plays: Arizona/MET OVER 7 -108 - 540 to win 500
Arizona plus 138 - 200 to win 276
2teams - Arizona plus 38/OVER 7 -115 - 300 to win 1,034.87
Eddings in Cincinnati tonight. Reds aren't hitting worth a dam and the Cubs have trouble scoring since Lee's been on the shelf. Z should quiet the Reddie bats and Milton is capable.
The play: CIN/CUB UNDER 8 -110 - 440 to win 400
Who is Blanton to be favored 230 over anyone? KC is the right side once again today - I'm passing because of The Hitman's struggles as of late.
Tampa Bay is just 1-7 on this road trip but they have a deep and talented collection of pitchers in the minors, and tonight will be the big-league debut for righty James Shields. He was 3-2 with a 2.64 ERA with AAA Durham, striking out 64 while walking just six in 61 1/3 innings. Shields has good stuff and will have the advantage of the hitters having never seen him before. Meanwhile, the Orioles trot out winless Bruce Chen and his 7.40 ERA to the hill. He had a good start last time out, getting thru six innings for just the second time all season. He's yet to have back-to-back quality starts this season and the Orioles are 1-8 in games he starts. They've lost seven straight Chen starts. With the Rays struggling, it's hard to recommend them for a big bet, but they have no business being this big of an underdog to Chen.
The play: Tampa plus 128 - 300 to win 384
Toronto sends out lefty Ted Lilly to face the potent Boston lineup as the Jays try to sweep Boston. Lilly is 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last seven starts against Boston. He has seven career 10 strikeout games, and four of them have been against Boston. The Blue Jays are 7-3 in 10 games against the Red Sox this season, with all three losses coming when Josh Towers pitched for Toronto. The Blue Jays have scored at least seven runs in all their wins over the Red Sox this season. The Red Sox have called up righty David Pauley to face Toronto. This will be his major league debut. He's never pitched above the AA level and this is a tough spot for him to try and prove himself.
The play: Toronto -137 - 411 to win 300
and Toronto -1.5 runs plus 146 - 250 to win 365
I lean to the Yankees tonight as well but am passing unless the price goes up a little more. And I'm passing in the basketball game; really like Miami but this is a prime lay-down spot...
