Seeking advice on how to deal with the last leg of this pending parlay

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ball dont lie
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For Friday night we have Miami Heat ML as the last leg of a 3 team parlay. Could simply let it ride and hope it cashes, or try to middle or whatever to guarantee some profits. Thought's?

6 to 1 payout:

Thursday- Dallas Mavs ML -340 ***Win***
Thursday- NYYankees/Detroit Tigers Over 9 -105 ***Win***
Friday- Miami Heat ML -180 (Pending)

Risk: $5,000 to win $14,650.00


This particular bookie the bet is booked with has the line posted as:

Detroit +4 -110
Miami -4 -110

Detroit ML +160
Miami ML -180

Thinking of maybe betting Detroit +4 -110 risking $5,500 to win $5,000 in case Miami chokes. If Miami losses walk away even. However, Miami wins by less than 4, cash both bets for $19,650 and if Miami wins by more than 4, still walk away up $9,150 or simply letter ride and pull for Miami to cash the $14,650 but if Detroit pulls the upset walk away losing 5 dimes.

How about some advice guys, what would ya's do here? Feedback, comments, idea's , questions, suggestions, opinions, etc wanted. Have a good idea of what I want to do here, but would like to hear others. Maybe I'm missing something as I'm so tired and need sleep. Thanks.
 

Stumblin' around, drunk on burgundy wine.
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how is that 6 to 1 payout? Looks like less than 3 to 1 if you let it ride
 

Rx God
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I guess the question becomes how important getting something back is. Maybe some +4, and some halftime action ?
 

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tough choice

personally I say let it ride, or at least wait until halftime if the game isn't looking so good

and in my opinion if miami does win it's going to be by well over 4 points
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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Take Detroit +4 for 10k and guarantee a nice little chunk either way and have a huge middle opportunity.
 

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I'd be careful, Detroit could definitely win this game..I look at it as a toss up really, Miami might pull it off because it is at home and they know if they lose it is going to be tough to win the series. I would try and middle it..
 

Back from the Ban
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Det +4 -104 !! 8350/8000

It's a proportional bet, with a middle shot.

Det wins, you win 3k. Miami Wins, You win 6300. Miami has about a 2/1 shot of winning, so it's somewhat proportional.

For your own sake, do some damn line shopping here. Why the hell pay -110 for anything?
 

ball dont lie
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It is a credit shop online that I started playing with here and there at the start of football season last year and yes they are pretty much -110 on everything. No links are the forum rules, but if ya want to know I have no problem saying what book it is as it's not even a popular book and never even heard of them myself until last year. -110 is not attractive, but sometimes the numbers are off and they honor all bets up to 50 cents off each way on a line. The book is betkodiak.com and if you need to edit that go ahead. Not shilling here just lookin for feedback. They are a plain jane generic book for the most.
 

ball dont lie
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Budworth22 said:
Det +4 -104 !! 8350/8000​


It's a proportional bet, with a middle shot.​

Det wins, you win 3k. Miami Wins, You win 6300. Miami has about a 2/1 shot of winning, so it's somewhat proportional.​

For your own sake, do some damn line shopping here. Why the hell pay -110 for anything?​

Will look around for a better bargain for sure as soon as I figure out what I'm doing. Hate paying -110 for anything anymore. Only play there because they extend me a generous credit line and prefer playing on credit.
 

ball dont lie
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Hey guys what about this?

Detroit +3.5 -103
2575/2500

-AND-

Detroit ML +157
2500/3925

-WITH-

Miami PK (already bet/pending parlay)
5000/14,650

Miami wins by more than 4: +9,575
Miami wins by less than 4; +14,650
Detroit wins outright: +1,425

Thoughts?
 

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I say bet Det ML. Don't see Miami winning by less than 4, either it's gonna be all Miami or Det will take it. But it's your money...depends I guess mostly on how important a definite payout is for you.
 

ball dont lie
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Ended up betting Detroit +4 -106
9,540/9000

and have Miami EV last leg of pending parlay
5,000/14,650

see what happens...
 

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I don't understand why a 3 teamer is only paying 3-1? You should win 30,000 at 6-1.
 

......................... ...
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stuckinvegas said:
I don't understand why a 3 teamer is only paying 3-1? You should win 30,000 at 6-1.

He had a -340 and -180. 6 to 1 would be based on all 3 at -110.
 

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