Isn't this a good price for a somewhat correlated prop?

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Illini

Illini

FreeRyanFerguson.com
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<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left></TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>+146</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right></TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right></TD></TR><TR class="" id=pitcher7><TD class=accountText colSpan=4></TD><TD class=accountText align=left colSpan=4>Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat 06/02
Scoring Props
Will Heat lead at end of 1st Qtr and win game?
Yes </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I couldn't pass it up. I'm not a prop player, but noticed this, and just felt that it seemed like good value. Maybe I should look at props more.
 
GreenDoberman

GreenDoberman

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You are correct in that it is mildly correlated. Heat wins first quarter, now you can hedge with second half lines, money lines, etc.
 

D2bets

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Illini said:
<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left></TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>+146</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right></TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right></TD></TR><TR class="" id=pitcher7><TD class=accountText colSpan=4></TD><TD class=accountText align=left colSpan=4>Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat 06/02
Scoring Props
Will Heat lead at end of 1st Qtr and win game?
Yes
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I couldn't pass it up. I'm not a prop player, but noticed this, and just felt that it seemed like good value. Maybe I should look at props more.
Click to expand...

Heat were what, like -160 to win the game and maybe -140 to win 1st quarter? So non-correlated odds would be around +179. They shave off 33 cents to make up for the correlation. Price is probably fair value.

Looking now though :103631605
 
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