NCAA Baseball 1st Lock of the Millenium

Boxslayer · Jun 3, 2006

Gentlemen,

We're back. Internet is still tough for me to come by right now since I'm in the middle of moving, but we have our first "Lock of the Millenium" today.

These plays went 9-1 I believe last year. I call it a Lock of the Millenium for shits and giggles. Not because it's actually a Lock. But it's as close to a lock as you will get. Those who followed these plays last year, know I've been waiting for college bases all year. I'm a former D1 player, I know the game inside and out, the teams and coaches, playing atmospheres, chokers, etc.

Pinnacle has these plays.

I released some series plays to watch, and I couldnt get back to the cpu. But I made plays on FSU +200 (they won game 1) to win the regional, Missippi State for 10 bucks to win 150 (they lost game 1), South Carolina +150, Alabama -350, and Texas -300.

1st Lock of the Millenium. Please bet within your budgets.

15* North Carolina -240

North Carolina starts Andrew Miller. 6'5" lefty, sits at 95-96. He will be the #1 overall pick in this years MLB draft. He had a rough outing his last time out, but this kid is a mentally tough pitcher that I know (he went to camps that I coached in Gainesville). He's a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award (college baseball's highest honor), and NC is at home in their regional playing WINTHROP. Winthrop traditionally is a scrappy bunch and always gave us fits at UF, but regional teams playing at home with a #1 overall pitcher vs. a school like Winthrop have an astronomical success rate and it would take a small act of God for Winthrop to pull this out. When you are a #1 seed like NC, you play the #4 seed, NC pitched their #2, and saved Miller for this game. Winthrop had to use their ace. So you have NC's #1, vs. Winthrops' #2 at NC playing for the right to advance to the championship. Lay this chalk.

Rawpimple · Jun 3, 2006

I saw this game too and it jumped out all over. I have been trying to dump quite a bit of money on this game and each time I do the line jumps.

In the matter of a few minutes it went from North Carolina -230 to -270. This line is WAY OFF. It should be around -700 to -1000. I have spoke to several scouts on this kid Andrew Miller and they are all over him like Harry Caray is on Coldweather. They love this guy. As Slayer said he is a lefty that can reach the upper 90s with nice movement on his fastball. Winthrop has never seen a pitcher like this.

LOVE IT and LOVE COLLEGE BASEBALL!!!

I also jumped on Bama over Troy for today but nowhere near this NC bet.

Good Luck!

:103631605

Boxslayer · Jun 3, 2006

Lock of the Millenium #2

15* Alabama -196

I know it's a lot of chalk, but like I said last year, these plays are tremendously undervalued. Alabama should be -600 in this game. Alabama has a TOUGH TOUGH atmosphere to play at, one of the toughest in the SEC and they play solid baseball at home. They take on Troy, and it's just the same crap year in and year out. These smaller schools have a hard time competing, because they may have 1 decent pitcher to get them by their 1st round game, and then to take on a team like 'Bama, coming into the game with that mental edge of playing a team like Troy and playing at home, vs. their #2 and Bamas #1/1a on the mound, it's just too tough. Even if these teams like Troy take a lead, they don't have the post-season experience to close games out and blow it in the end.

LEYKIS101 · Jun 3, 2006

Thanks for the pick, Box.

No doubt the lines will be moving on this one(NC), got it at -250 and I see -271 at Pinny now.

Boxslayer · Jun 3, 2006

Rawpimple said:
I saw this game too and it jumped out all over. I have been trying to dump quite a bit of money on this game and each time I do the line jumps.

In the matter of a few minutes it went from North Carolina -230 to -270. This line is WAY OFF. It should be around -700 to -1000. I have spoke to several scouts on this kid Andrew Miller and they are all over him like Harry Caray is on Coldweather. They love this guy. As Slayer said he is a lefty that can reach the upper 90s with nice movement on his fastball. Winthrop has never seen a pitcher like this.

LOVE IT and LOVE COLLEGE BASEBALL!!!

I also jumped on Bama over Troy for today but nowhere near this NC bet.

Good Luck!

I agree this NC bet is nice and a bit better than the Bama bet. But that Bama bet is still outstanding. Not laying as much juice, and getting a solid home team playing a 2nd rate school like Troy. I really can't see Bama or NC losing these games today without something completely crazy happening. Same stuff every year.

Rawpimple · Jun 3, 2006

This North Carolina bet is almost analogous to taking the Toronto Blue Jays with Halladay on the mound against the University of Miami. What would the line be on this game?

You are taking a top team in North Carolina with a stud lefty pitcher who is mentally tough, arguably the best pitcher in College Baseball against a 3rd rate school's 2nd best pitcher. Now sure Winthrop has an ok offense but remember who they play.

In baseball nothing is a lock but there are games that are 9/10 and this is one. You would not find a game like this in pro baseball. Even if the Yankees played the Royals. It still would not be the same.

Boxslayer · Jun 3, 2006

5* Wichita State +136

Wichita State is a traditional baseball powerhouse. Usually the traditional powerhouses that had decent years get the 3 seed, and small aschools that played in weak conferences that did exceptional in conference play get the 4 seed. That's what we have here. TCU actually has some good starting pitching, but their stats are inflated from weak competition. Wichita has the right combination of speed, post-season experience, etc too good to get at +136 vs. a 4 seed. These guys have 5 legit stolen base threats in their lineup, and if you want to see small school pitching buckle, watch what happens when they play a speedy team like Wichita. Speed is the most coveted tool that college recruiters look for, and only the top schools get it. Small schools don't see speed that often. Wichita is a top school in baseball....they are college basketball's Marquette or Gonzaga of college baseball. Wichita has 3 solid starters themselves, that are a bit more battle-tested than TCU. Smaller, but solid play on Wichita State.

HPark1 · Jun 3, 2006

thks for the insights BS/RP

What do you guys think about Charleston over Ball St? This line seems very nice considering Charleston ace Nick Chigges is likely to start.

With Ball St. upsetting UK yesterday Charleston now has a major opportunity to take advantage. I can't see them screwing this up.

CHRISG612 · Jun 3, 2006

Love wichita state here...

royalfan · Jun 3, 2006

Winthrop throwing the guy that led the nation in wins. You are saying he isn't their ace or are you saying you don't have any idea and are making assumptions on what teams will be doing and just going against the non name teams?

Rawpimple · Jun 3, 2006

wouldnt surprise me to see this North Carolina line to go to -400+ by game time.

royalfan · Jun 3, 2006

Boxslayer32 said:
5* Wichita State +136

Wichita State is a traditional baseball powerhouse. Usually the traditional powerhouses that had decent years get the 3 seed, and small aschools that played in weak conferences that did exceptional in conference play get the 4 seed. That's what we have here. TCU actually has some good starting pitching, but their stats are inflated from weak competition. Wichita has the right combination of speed, post-season experience, etc too good to get at +136 vs. a 4 seed. These guys have 5 legit stolen base threats in their lineup, and if you want to see small school pitching buckle, watch what happens when they play a speedy team like Wichita. Speed is the most coveted tool that college recruiters look for, and only the top schools get it. Small schools don't see speed that often. Wichita is a top school in baseball....they are college basketball's Marquette or Gonzaga of college baseball. Wichita has 3 solid starters themselves, that are a bit more battle-tested than TCU. Smaller, but solid play on Wichita State.

I would not say that the numbers are inflated any more than witchita. They play in an equally shitty conference. This is not near as good a Witchita team as you are accumstomed to seeing. TCU played in tons of thin air this year. Lot of runs scored in that conference, besides against them. Be very careful here. Going the other way I think. Couple more things to look at.

Boxslayer · Jun 3, 2006

HPark1 said:
thks for the insights BS/RP

What do you guys think about Charleston over Ball St? This line seems very nice considering Charleston ace Nick Chigges is likely to start.

With Ball St. upsetting UK yesterday Charleston now has a major opportunity to take advantage. I can't see them screwing this up.

I wouldnt lay that chalk on a team like COC. They are definitely the better team here, and have a better situation, but I'm not laying -300 on anybody unless it is a powerhouse. The powerhouse schools can have a bad game, but they have the talent to bail them out in the end and squeek a win out. If COC has a bad day, you're screwed. The playing field...talent-wise is almost level between these two teams. JMO

royalfan · Jun 3, 2006

Rawpimple said:
wouldnt surprise me to see this North Carolina line to go to -400+ by game time.

Me neither, with this thread and boxslayers reputation as being a good college capper and the fact it doesn't take much to move it there. Could you answer my question about Winthrop starter since he isnt ?

Budworth22 · Jun 3, 2006

Hey Box, help me out here.

Did you make your own lines before these came out?

Are you making these plays because you think these teams will win, or because you made your lines beforehand and these were the most valuable in comparison?

Bennyshoe · Jun 3, 2006

I get home and now I see UNC at -329. Darn.

Good to see you back with NCAA baseball picks. Hope you do as well as you did last year.

Rawpimple · Jun 3, 2006

Wintrhop has 2 pitchers who have basically equal statistics however their ace pitched yesterday. Rollins is the better pitcher. A team like Wintrhop cant mess around and throw their #2. They have to go all out while North Carolina can play it cute.
Rollins is considered the better pitcher by coaches and scouts.

Boxslayer · Jun 3, 2006

royalfan said:
Winthrop throwing the guy that led the nation in wins. You are saying he isn't their ace or are you saying you don't have any idea and are making assumptions on what teams will be doing and just going against the non name teams?

Wilson is not their ace. Yes, he lead the NCAA in victories, but he pitched against poor competition. He is a freshman who throws strikes, but his stuff is not that good. He's a dependable kid that won't walk people and make teams earn their baserunners. Their true ace is their experienced junior Rollins, who is mid 80's with a nasty hook. That's the guy I would be afraid of here. I'm more than happy having a freshman on the mound pitching at NC vs. Miller in the post-season.

PS - Don't take my word for it. You can always tell who a coach thinks his ace is by who he pitches against good teams. Friday night opener vs. Univ of Miami he pitched Rollins. Mid-week vs. FSU when small schools pitch their ace to squeek out a win vs. big schools, he pitched Rollins.

royalfan · Jun 3, 2006

Playing the under here pretty big. Miller is very good and I don't see them scoring tons of runs off Winthrops pitcher who leads the nation in wins. Winthrop can win this game though. Not likely but not great value in the play on the favorite, especially at this number.

royalfan · Jun 3, 2006

Boxslayer32 said:
Wilson is not their ace. Yes, he lead the NCAA in victories, but he pitched against poor competition. He is a freshman who throws strikes, but his stuff is not that good. He's a dependable kid that won't walk people and make teams earn their baserunners. Their true ace is their experienced junior Rollins, who is mid 80's with a nasty hook. That's the guy I would be afraid of here. I'm more than happy having a freshman on the mound pitching at NC vs. Miller in the post-season.

PS - Don't take my word for it. You can always tell who a coach thinks his ace is by who he pitches against good teams. Friday night opener vs. Univ of Miami he pitched Rollins. Mid-week vs. FSU when small schools pitch their ace to squeek out a win vs. big schools, he pitched Rollins.

Thanks, that is a good sign the ace is indeed Rollins. Good information Box.

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NCAA Baseball 1st Lock of the Millenium