teazeman said:
sure teazeman...i'll explain it in better detail right here...
Sabermetric calculations are done to determine how many "expected wins" and "expected losses" a pitcher should have based off of how he has pitched. A pitcher that is 8-2 with a 4.98 ERA has a very misleading record and should maybe be only 4-5 or so. Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)
I make a distribution of the top 120 Starting Pitchers based on expected wins and their 'luck' number. I then find the top 5 'Luckiest' pitchers and the bottom 5 'Un-Lucky' Pitchers and then fade and follow, respectively.
It will usually have about 6 pitchers in each column and last for 5-6 days...like a real pitching rotation because all of the pitchers must start for the rotation to end. if a starter is about to make a second start in the rotation before it ends i would then re-calculate to see if he still qualifies.
This system is based on people regressing to their "mean" as far as "luck" is concerned. it is not guaranteed from day-to-day, but in the long run will most likely come out on top. It may also point out pitchers that are over/under valued...another great thing about this system.
Example: take Josh Beckett. a good-young pitcher that everyone considers an 'elite'. He was 7-2 before today's game against the Yankees, but he had a ERA around 4.80. His "expected" record was 4.1-4.3...a sub .500 record...his 'Luck' was 5.16 (which is VERY high and made him end up in the FADE column). he got shelled today and generated another system win.
there are usually reasons for the numbers...Beckett has gotten great run support in games he has done shitty and has had his bullpen save his ass numerous times to get to 7-2...but my numbers have him as an average pitcher. i always thought he'd struggle in the AL, where you cant rely on a straight fastball all the time... i still think he is a good pitcher, but i like making money, so give me the "other guy".
Sabermetric calculations
I was almost sorry i asked that question for the first few words!LOL thanks for breaking it down for me, you seem to me to be one of the more "technical" not sure if thats even the correct word, cappers on the board and i am kind of a system type guy so i enjoy your analytical approach to the game. thanks and gl as i may play along with these.
I was almost sorry i asked that question for the first few words!LOL thanks for breaking it down for me, you seem to me to be one of the more "technical" not sure if thats even the correct word, cappers on the board and i am kind of a system type guy so i enjoy your analytical approach to the game. thanks and gl as i may play along with these.
