*Boxslayer's NCAA Baseball Monday*

Gentlemen,

I apologize for the loss yesterday with South Carolina. Just a terrible all around game played by them. Walks, errors, etc, and Evansville took advantage of everything Carolina gave them. With that loss in mind I wanted to say a couple of things...

* Please use smart money management. We are currently 5-1 on the post-season. If you have played all 6 of these plays and are anywhere close to LOSING money, you aren't betting the right way and need to reevaluate what you are doing.
* "Locks of the Millenium" are called "Locks of the Millenium" because I was cocky about these plays last year, and had bad posting savvy. This year they are still called "Locks of the Millenium" for superstitious purposes and recognition purposes. For those who followed last year, "Locks of the Millenium" went about 9-1 if I remember correctly. That means these plays CAN LOSE. I don't have any crazy inside information, these games aren't fixed and anything can happen. At the end of the day, we're still gambling.
* Locks of the Millenium hit at about 90% last year, and my overall plays were well over 65%, and that's about what I expect again this year. I expect to hit well over 65% on all plays. That means we will lose a few. I'm not perfect.
* I now have internet installed, so I will be around my computer like normal, and able to answer questions about games, have my write-ups like last year and show my face a bit more.

Now that that's out of the way. The Finals are going on, and there are a couple of things to note about these games.

*Smaller schools usually have 1 or 2 solid pitchers, and 1 guy out of the pen at BEST. The deeper the games go, the harder it is for them to compete because of pitching and lack of post-season experience. Some programs rarely get this far, and they just don't KNOW HOW TO WIN important games. As players, coaches, and as a program, they are so accustomed to losing, when games get more important, and tighter, it's too much for them to overcome. These teams will sometimes bring back their stud pitchers from Friday Night, on 1 day rest, and throw him again. Sometimes you get gutsy performances, sometimes you get fatigued performances, something we will be keeping in mind.

I'll have plays and writeups at about 12:30pm eastern.

Thanks for the plays this past weekend you won me a good chunk of money. Luck was with me because I missed the S. C. Evansville game bet. Then some how Fresno hung on to beat S. D. last nite to make it a very good weekend. Keep up the good work Box.:money8:

Is 15* your highest rated play or will you rate some higher? If so, how high will your highest rated be?

Thanks

SIG said:

Is 15* your highest rated play or will you rate some higher? If so, how high will your highest rated be?

Thanks

Click to expand...

I never really sat down and laid out a ranking system or anything like that. When I play any sport regular season, I play 1*-5* and that stands for my unit amounts. In postseason football, basketball, baseball, etc I feel games play out more to script because things get magnified, and I feel I'm more accurate capping, so 10* is the highest, and that also stands for my unit amounts.

Some places have put a cap on the amount you can risk, so when I have laid out 15*, I was really just trying to show how much I liked the game, more as a ranking. That it was more than 10* (which is my highest post-season unit play). Contrary to my college baseball posts, I'm not big into hyping plays because it usually leads to people betting more than they should due to emotions. And for that reason, I don't see myself going any higher than 15*. But you never know. The books really have no clue what they are doing with these college lines, and they might throw something great up there, where I may say 20*. All that means is, I reallly really like the play, and it always has a chance to lose.

Hope that helps.

1st Play Today

Florida State at Georgia

Florida State has lost all momentum in this thing. They were on cruise control, waiting in the Finals, and they needed to be beat twice to advance, and Georgia fought out of the loser's bracket to storm back and beat FSU in game 1. Now FSU is avoiding elimination and they'll have to do it at UGA.

FSU is trying to advance to a record 8th straight Super Regional by winning today.

In past regionals where FSU has won the 1st two games, waited in the Finals, and lost the 3rd, they only have won this deciding 4th game 3 out of 9 times. Now, teams obviously change entirely in college every 3-4 years, but these were Mike Martin coached teams.

Contrary to what I've said above, FSU still has a solid chance in this thing. They beat UGA earlier 6-4 in this thing, I had them to win this regional at +200, and they are at a decent underdog price. Shane Robinson at leadoff is the most dangerous leadoff hitter in the country, played on Team USA and will always get FSU started off. This thing should be a slugfest, with both teams getting far too deep into their rotations, and bullpens. I'm laying off the side (lean to UGA, but not enough to make me lay the juice here) and making a play on this total.

FSU is starting either Sauls or Browning. Both have the worst ERA's on the staff. Opponents are batting well over .300 against both, Browning is 2nd on the staff in walks.

Sauls last few starts have been terrible. Pretty much 2 or 3 innings 3 or 4 runs and done.

UGA has gone through their rotation and their ace out of the pen (Warren) has thrown 5 IP the past 2 days. He should be a bit tight. UGA started a freshman last game vs. FSU instead of going to their other freshman Trevor Holder. Holder has 7 starts on the year and appears to be next in line and has a 5.51 ERA.

4* FSU/UGA over 12.5

I see the line has changed while I was typing to 13. I obviously like it there too. Wouldnt go higher than 14 here, and would lower my bet amount at 13.5.

South Carolina vs. Evansville

Evansville is swinging incredibly hot bats right now, so I'm going to stay away from laying -240 again on South Carolina, although I don't see anyway Evansville takes two in a row from SC. As I said, South Carolina is a team built for post-season play, and it would REALLY suprise me to see them lose two in a row. Heavy lean towards SC, I just dont want to lay that juice again the way Evansville is swinging it.

Now you have a small school like Evansville, needing to dig DEEP into their rotation, probably to a non-scholarship guy, or go back to your ace, who is VERY tired. You'll see a HUGE difference in the #4 starters of Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, than the #4 starter from a small school like Evansville.

Evansville is swinging very hot bats right now, and South Carolina has exploded offensively at spots this whole year. Now you have a SEC lineup, teeing off against a #4 or #5 from a small school like Evansville.

4* SC/Evansville over 12

Take it up to 13

Good luck Box. Like these two plays. See very little chance of losing both.

Good luck Box. Who do you think SCar will throw today??? Kinda of curious to know what you think on that.

South Carolina will go Pelzer or Beverly.

Beverly only threw 2.1 IP the other day.
Pelzer is fresh to go.

Here are their stats:

1. Pelzer (fresh) ....more of a reliever....5 saves...hard throwing sophomore.....only 6 games started this year, now getting thrown into the fire.....65 IP 4-4 3.99ERA, 1 walk every other inning, 1HR per 9 innings
2. Beverly (maybe a little tight, especially considering hes had some arm problems in the past) junior lefty 62IP, 6-3 5.63ERA, 72 hits, 8 bombs in 62IP, opponents batting .287

SC has a better chance of winning if they start Pelzer IMO, and he's supposively getting the start from what I hear.

Boxslayer32 said:

South Carolina will go Pelzer or Beverly.

Beverly only threw 2.1 IP the other day.
Pelzer is fresh to go.

Here are their stats:

1. Pelzer (fresh) ....more of a reliever....5 saves...hard throwing sophomore.....only 6 games started this year, now getting thrown into the fire.....65 IP 4-4 3.99ERA, 1 walk every other inning, 1HR per 9 innings
2. Beverly (maybe a little tight) 62IP, 6-3 5.63ERA, 72 hits, 8 bombs in 62IP, opponents batting .287

Click to expand...

I was guessing either Hempy or Pelzer. Wouldnt mind seeing Beverly in light of the over play. Thanks and GL.

res said:

I was guessing either Hempy or Pelzer. Wouldnt mind seeing Beverly in light of the over play. Thanks and GL.

Click to expand...

Hempy???

That would be interesting to see considering he tore his elbow up in April. He was their ace.

Dang, just thought it was old age catching up to me. Guess that explains no starts since April now that I check all the stats by game. Appreciate the help.

no prob! GL to you too

Box, you leaning toward anything else?? I have to leave shortly and will be gone --probably wont get back until the last one goes. Keep up the good work.

yes posting one more, possibly two more right this moment.

I'll keep it short and sweet with write-ups on the way.

2* Baylor +2.5 +135
1* Baylor +630

3* Wichita State +250

Thanks, I might throw alityle on Wich ST if things go well earlier and I get back in time. Hope you cash em in today.

First let's look at this Baylor game.

Anything at +630 needs to be considered. But wow. Baylor +630? Don't mind if I do. Baylor went to Omaha last year. They returned some of their best arms, played an INCREDIBLY tough schedule, and came in as a 3 seed.

Baylor is battle-tested...some of the teams they faced this year:

Texas
Long Beach State
Arizona State
Oklahoma
TCU
Kansas
Rice
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Kansas State

I think every team on this list made a regional. Some of these teams like Texas, Long Beach, Rice, Nebraska, are powerhouses. Tough, tough schedule. So, this Baylor pitching staff has seen tough games in tough environments.

Baylor should start Matthews today. Hasnt pitched yet, Hes their 4th starter. Sophomore, so no freshman factor here. 6-4, 4.57 era, and only 19 walks in 65 IP, so you know this guy will make Rice earn it.

Baylor, although going through the loser's bracket, saved some pitching. They got a huge clutch complete game performance from LaMotta. And some gutsy, inning eating efforts from Linebaugh and Van Allen.

Baylor has one of the strongest pitching staffs, and bullpens in the country. Cassavechia is their closer is a soph. 3-4, 3.04 ERA, 27 appearances is a lot for college. 38IP, only 35 hits, and a .238 average against him. He's their late-inning guy, and should be able to prevent Rice from extending their lead past the run line, and/or hold Rice down late in the game from a comeback win.

Mandel is their long reliever ace out of the pen. And although he went 3 IP yesterday, he only through 39 pitches. This is a do-or-die game for Baylor so they will pull out all of the stops. Weghorst is another guy who is solid out of the pen. 1-0, 1.89 ERA 33IP .246 avergae against and only 1 Homerun given up in 33IP. Baylor still has 2 other guys in the pen that havnt been used yet that are above average.

Baylor has 2 studs in their lineup, where if they are on, they can really get the rest of the guys going and put up some runs.

Now, here's the other part. Rice really uses a core of 4 pitchers for most of their innings, and they have all been used at some point already. Degermen 8 IP, is done. St. Clair is their closer, and he will be back today. Bobby Bell and Craig Crow are their next 2 guys and both have thrown 4 and 5 innings. That means Rice will lean on standout two-way player Joe Savery to start this game most likely.

When you add it all up, you have a Baylor team that played a very tough schedule, playing one of the toughest teams in the country at their house, with a twoway player on the mound, and Baylor has a full pen and lots of pitchers at their disposal. Baylor went to Omaha last year, and really is not that bad of a team, just played a real tough schedule. +600 is awesome. +2.5 AND underdog price is also nice. Baylor lost earlier in this tourney to Rice 7-2, but Baylor has had 2 impressive wins over Arizona State (#16th ranked ASU), to hand them both of their losses and eliminate them. ASU was also an Omaha team last year.

You also have Rice coming in with the potential attitude of "well we can split these next 2 games and still move on to Super Regionals." While Baylor is do-or-die backs against the wall.

So I'm making a small play on this and throwing a couple of bucks on Baylor on the run line and moneyline in this spot. Small play, small risk, big return if it hits.

This line should be -200 to -250.

Now Wichita State +250

Another line that is just off. Wichita State has shown they are not that bad. We took them earlier as a dog and they paid off nice, winning easily.

This line with Oklahoma should be in the -140 range.

Oklahoma has shown flashes of brilliance, and flashes of poor baseball. They are NOT your typical #1 seed, dominating the field.

Regular season loss to Rice 8-2
Got swept by Wichita State on 2 seperate occasions during the regular season 12-2, and 9-5. Lost 2 out of 3 to Baylor at home. And lost 2 out of 3 to Texas at home. Swept by Oklahoma State. Split with Arizona State.

So, Oklahoma has yet to beat Wichita State yet. Wichita has shown they can put up runs in bunches, and this is more of a bet on Wichita to flat out-score Oklahoma, as both staffs will be deep in their rotations, it should be a back and forth game. As I mentioned yesterday, Wichita has 5 guys in their lineup that are legit stolen base threats, and that should cause problems all game for Oklahoma as it has so far in these regionals.

2* Baylor/Rice under 11

Last play of the day as I felt most of these lines were off for today's games.

Baylor and Rice have good pitching lined up, both teams play small ball games, both coaches are well respected as gameday managers. Should be a low-scoring style game.


RECAP:

Lots of smaller plays today. Nothing huge.

4* FSU/UGA over 12.5
4* South Carolina/Evansville over 12
3* Wichita State +250
2* Baylor +2.5 +135
2* Baylor/Rice under 11
1* Baylor +630

Looking to go 4-2 today.

Heading out for lunch. Back later. Thats all of the plays for today.

What do you think of the SC/Evansville line...-270 w/the season on the line. I gotta believe that SC wins this game 8/10 which turns out a nice little profit.

Savery for Rice is pretty dang good...don't think Baylor wins that one, but you are right, it would be a nice dog if they do!!

Good Luck today!