Lock of the Millenium #4
Rice for the series -220
Rice has some tremendous hitting in their lineup, if you want evidence of that you just needed to catch a glimpse of their game vs. Baylor. For those who don't follow college ball, Rice is a traditional powerhouse. This isn't some cinderella team having a good year.
Pre-season ranking: #5
Currently: #1/#2 in polls
RPI: #2 (Ratings Power Index is NCAA's way of the BCS. Who is the best team based off strength of schedule, quality of wins, quality of team, etc.)
But it's Rice's pitching that is also DEEP and solid. Their ace is easily Degerman. This is a 5th year senior, with loads of experience, 90-92 and throws his slider and changeup for strikes. He comes clutch post-season. Last game vs. Baylor he went complete game shutout, 14 K's 0 runs.
Rice has gone Degerman, Bell, Crow all year. But they also have 2-way standout Joe Savery who can give long innings, and mid-week starter McDaniel that can give long innings. Closing out their staff is stud closer Cole St. Clair who has nasty breaking stuff, and 3rd rounder Bryce Cox, who is a strike throwing machine out of the pen, (threw 28 of 31 strikes vs. Baylor last game).
This is one of the few teams that was talented pre-season and has maintained their high ranking throughout the year.
Rice has not lost a 3 game series all year.
Now, technically, they got swept by Texas, but they played them during weekdays, at 3 different times of the year and they were still settling their pitching staff. So, for example, they played Texas on a Wed in Feb, then on a Tuesday in March, and on a Thurs in April. Cole St. Clair was not their closer early in the year and they blew a save with a 2-run 9th with Branhall, who doesn't pitch as much anymore in important situations) Both of these teams didnt start their main weekend rotation all 3 games to save them for the weekend. When Rice has played their typical 3-game weekend series, with their 3 horses going, they have not lost a series. They also took 2 out of 3 from Cal State Fullerton.
Oklahoma
This is a team that has found success in hitting. But from lots of experience, hitting doesn't cut it in the post-season. You need pitching, you need horses, you need studs on the mound, and Oklahoma really lacks that.
In addition, Rice is no stranger to Omaha, and either is their coach. Oklahoma in contrast making their first ever super regional appearance.
Oklahoma was a team that didnt have much talent, wasnt taken seriously to start the year for a reason, and climbed the rankings through winning some games with above average talent, mostly through outslugging their big 12 small ball opponents. The problem for OKL here is Rice can not only out-pitch you, they can out hit you, too.
Oklahoma has a nice Friday starter that throws strikes, doesnt over power you with the fastball, and that should fit nicely for Rice's lineup. Oklahoma's #2 was taken #404 overall, with his low 90's fastball, but is very inconsistent. 9-8 on the year, but he actually gets hit around pretty good. He's an innings eater that needs to eat innings because after these 2 guys, and the 2 guys in OKL's pen, the pitching suffers a dropoff. And against Rice, Oklahoma is going to need to go 3 deep to beat them, and Oklahoma doesnt have the pitching for it.
Rice struggles with stud pitchers (i.e. they were shutout by Houstons ace pitcher drafted in the 1st round today), but Oklahoma doesnt have anything that resembles that on this staff.
Savage and Brownell will get overused out of the pen and they both get smacked around alot, opponents batting about .300 off both.
Oklahoma split the series in the season with Rice. Both teams didnt have their starters going in these mid-week games.
Bottom Line
The more talented team, the more experienced post-season team, with the much deeper pitching staff and still outtanding hitting, vs. a club that really only goes 2 deep pitching and neither of them are dominant, playing in their first ever super regional, overvalued because they were a 1 seed in their regional. Oklahoma baseball is not anything like Oklahoma football.
Rice -220, take it up to -300 as i am starting to see some -300's out there. Wouldn't go much higher than that.
More later.
Rice for the series -220
Rice has some tremendous hitting in their lineup, if you want evidence of that you just needed to catch a glimpse of their game vs. Baylor. For those who don't follow college ball, Rice is a traditional powerhouse. This isn't some cinderella team having a good year.
Pre-season ranking: #5
Currently: #1/#2 in polls
RPI: #2 (Ratings Power Index is NCAA's way of the BCS. Who is the best team based off strength of schedule, quality of wins, quality of team, etc.)
But it's Rice's pitching that is also DEEP and solid. Their ace is easily Degerman. This is a 5th year senior, with loads of experience, 90-92 and throws his slider and changeup for strikes. He comes clutch post-season. Last game vs. Baylor he went complete game shutout, 14 K's 0 runs.
Rice has gone Degerman, Bell, Crow all year. But they also have 2-way standout Joe Savery who can give long innings, and mid-week starter McDaniel that can give long innings. Closing out their staff is stud closer Cole St. Clair who has nasty breaking stuff, and 3rd rounder Bryce Cox, who is a strike throwing machine out of the pen, (threw 28 of 31 strikes vs. Baylor last game).
This is one of the few teams that was talented pre-season and has maintained their high ranking throughout the year.
Rice has not lost a 3 game series all year.
Now, technically, they got swept by Texas, but they played them during weekdays, at 3 different times of the year and they were still settling their pitching staff. So, for example, they played Texas on a Wed in Feb, then on a Tuesday in March, and on a Thurs in April. Cole St. Clair was not their closer early in the year and they blew a save with a 2-run 9th with Branhall, who doesn't pitch as much anymore in important situations) Both of these teams didnt start their main weekend rotation all 3 games to save them for the weekend. When Rice has played their typical 3-game weekend series, with their 3 horses going, they have not lost a series. They also took 2 out of 3 from Cal State Fullerton.
Oklahoma
This is a team that has found success in hitting. But from lots of experience, hitting doesn't cut it in the post-season. You need pitching, you need horses, you need studs on the mound, and Oklahoma really lacks that.
In addition, Rice is no stranger to Omaha, and either is their coach. Oklahoma in contrast making their first ever super regional appearance.
Oklahoma was a team that didnt have much talent, wasnt taken seriously to start the year for a reason, and climbed the rankings through winning some games with above average talent, mostly through outslugging their big 12 small ball opponents. The problem for OKL here is Rice can not only out-pitch you, they can out hit you, too.
Oklahoma has a nice Friday starter that throws strikes, doesnt over power you with the fastball, and that should fit nicely for Rice's lineup. Oklahoma's #2 was taken #404 overall, with his low 90's fastball, but is very inconsistent. 9-8 on the year, but he actually gets hit around pretty good. He's an innings eater that needs to eat innings because after these 2 guys, and the 2 guys in OKL's pen, the pitching suffers a dropoff. And against Rice, Oklahoma is going to need to go 3 deep to beat them, and Oklahoma doesnt have the pitching for it.
Rice struggles with stud pitchers (i.e. they were shutout by Houstons ace pitcher drafted in the 1st round today), but Oklahoma doesnt have anything that resembles that on this staff.
Savage and Brownell will get overused out of the pen and they both get smacked around alot, opponents batting about .300 off both.
Oklahoma split the series in the season with Rice. Both teams didnt have their starters going in these mid-week games.
Bottom Line
The more talented team, the more experienced post-season team, with the much deeper pitching staff and still outtanding hitting, vs. a club that really only goes 2 deep pitching and neither of them are dominant, playing in their first ever super regional, overvalued because they were a 1 seed in their regional. Oklahoma baseball is not anything like Oklahoma football.
Rice -220, take it up to -300 as i am starting to see some -300's out there. Wouldn't go much higher than that.
More later.
