Figuring the Run Line Value for Money Line favs.

Can someone explain how to calculate the value of a runline on a team getting +1.5 runs versus taking them on the money line at a +. For example here is one matchup today, what has more value the moneyline or runline and how would you figure it. Home teams win 31.9 % of their games by 1 run, Road teams win 23.5 % of their games by 1 run.

Pirates at Colorado +1.5 -201 M/L +101

What has more value?

Using the percentages above how would one figure this?

Say out of 100 wagers in a perfect world the pirates won all 100 with the +1.5 runs. How many out of 100 would they win on the M/L?

Well, if they weren't getting that +1.5 runs than all the games they lost by one would be a loss. How many times would Colorado win this game out of 100 by one run? About 68.1 so, 68.1 *101 =6878.1-3190 for lost wagers=a value of 3688.1.
The Run line has a value of 4975 out of 100 wagers. My problem is that my calculations are either way off, or the bookies lines are off. Help please.
:smoker2:

Here is a calculator that you can use. It gives you a good idea. Just imput the factors and at will compute it for you.


http://www.drbobsports.com/baseball/baseball.cfm?p=7

The problem is when a team is taking the +1.5 runs. In that case either the calculator is only geared to calculate the -1.5 runs or I'm putting the info in wrong, or the lines are shot. Give it a try and see the huge difference in the value between all the +1.5 and money lines.