*Boxslayer's NCAA Baseball Saturday*

Recap Yesterday:

Lock of the Millenium #4
15* Rice -220 for the series PENDING

Regular Plays
4* Ole Miss -165 for the series PENDING
2* Missouri +540 for the series PENDING (down 0-1)


Game 1 Plays:
Lock of the Millenium #5
12* Clemson -240 WINNER

Regular Plays
6* Georgia Tech -1.5 -107 WINNER
4* Alabama/UNC under 9.5 LOSER
3* Cal State Fullerton under 9 WINNER

Adding Game 1's:
2* North Carolina +103 WINNER
1* Missouri +1.5 +103 LOSER
1* Missouri +237 LOSER


Huge day yesterday. Even though went 4-3, 2 of those 3 losses were on the same Missouri play. And all of the losses were on the small plays. Big wins with Clemson and GA Tech. North Carolina was also easy, and Cal State Fulllerton under cashed as well.

Lock's of the Millenium now 3-1.
Today's Card:

6* Georgia Tech -1.5
4* Tech/Charleston over 11.5 +101

Georgia Tech leading 8-2 bottom of 7.

Let's take a look at this Clemson/Oral Roberts game.

What did we learn from game 1?:

-Tradition/KNOW HOW TO WIN/Experience: Advantage Clemson
-Bullpen, both teams got deep into their pens: Advantage Clemson
-Today's Starting Pitchers: Advantage Clemson
-Hitting: Slight edge to Clemson (Oral roberts showed they can swing it)
-Momentum: Advantage Clemson

What a deflating loss it must be for Oral Roberts, who played a tremendous game, and coming up on the short end, with the walk-off grand slam. Very demoralizing. Now they face a tall task of having to defeat Clemson twice in their yard. As the bullpens get thinner, bigger advantage to Clemson. Both teams will need to get huge starts from their starters today, more so Oral Roberts, to stand a chance. If Oral Roberts pulls this game out, there should be a huge play on Clemson tomorrow.

Funny thing is, both teams throw "better" pitchers today, statistically. Oral Roberts always waits a game to throw their ace, an interesting strategy.

Oral Roberts
Chris Ashman........ 10-1, 2.02ERA. Opp. batting .228 against him
(Obviously doesnt play the competition that Cribb of Clemson does)
86-89 will touch 90 and 91, especially being pumped up in this game. Has had some arm problems, as he's returning from surgery this year. He's not over-powering, and as asenior, was not taken in the MLB Draft.

Doesnt give up a lot of walks, doesnt give up a lot of extra basehits. No freebies for Clemson this game, they are going to have to earn it.

In fact, Oral Roberts had just 1 pitcher taken in the draft, closer Sean Jarrett who got shelled yesterday, giving up that game winning grand slam. He has to be shell-shocked, and his confidence has to be down, as well as having a potentially tight arm from pitching yesterday.

ORU has 3 guys they bring out of the pen, and 2 of them were brought out yesterday. Jarrett as mentioned, and Erict Chricton, who was burned throwing 5 IP. So, Oral Roberts today will look to get a good 6-7 innings from Ashman, who had arm surgery last year, and then bring Chance Chapman out of the pen. After that, they are done and it could be bombs away again for Clemson.

Clemson
Clemson doesnt have an ace. They actually have ACE 1a, and ACE 1b.
Ace1B, RHP Josh Cribb goes today. 5th year senior. Obviously loads of experience and a 8th round draft pick by the Royals.
Josh Cribb is 9-0, 3.09 ERA. Undefeated this year going through that tough ACC slate is impressive. Obviously, he was a big reason why Clemson fared so well in home series. He's a 5th year senior, with his last chance to get to Omaha, pitching at home in an elimination game vs. an inferior opponent.

I tip my hat to Oral Roberts for playing an incredible game, but a demoralizing loss, coupled with a thinning bullpen, lack of post-season experience, playing on the road vs. a superior team, Clemson with a chance to close this thing out today.

I am most likely laying off this game for 1 reason:

1) Too much juice, even on the run line. You gotta lay 2 runs and -200 juice? I cant do it, maybe some of you can.





If you want an action play and you dont mind all of the crazy juice:

4* Clemson -1.5 -250

Personally, I am laying off this game for the reasons above.

Not over but thanks for G-Tech, I have loaded up on them! Barring a choke I will be a happy camper.

yeah, gonna post the rest of my card in 10 mins.

4pm.

interesting that this over isnt coming in. 10 runs through 5 innings. now they cant score. it was on cruise control.

11 now.....Bottom of 8 2 outs and 8-3 Tech

Top of 9

G-Tech 3 outs of AWAY!!!!

okay, georgia tech tacked on a few more, this one goes over, and they are still threatening. barring one of the worst choke jobs ever, looking to start off 2-0 +10 units/*'s.

rest of the card coming up in 2 mins.

Great pick BOX.....kicking myself in the ass for parlaying GT with the Stankees. ucking:

6* North Carolina -115
2* North Carolina -1.5 (+164)

5* Stanford +178

3* Ole Miss -143
1* Ole Miss +124

1* Missouri +275

spreadbeater said:

Great pick BOX.....kicking myself in the ass for parlaying GT with the Stankees. ucking:

Click to expand...

ahh, thats right. tough break. there will be more, i'll keep you posted

Boxslayer32 said:

ahh, thats right. tough break. there will be more, i'll keep you posted

Click to expand...

Thanks man.....my fault, not yours!

Will you be writing up any of the remainder games that you just posted?

Yes.

North Carolina

Alabama, as I mentioned is a solid team at home. But North Carolina taking game 1, gives them confidence and in the driver's seat to close this one out today. A couple of things I mentioned in my write-up played out to perfection:

1) Alabama can't hit, and North Carolina is by far the better offensive club.
2) Alabama is terrible in the field

Alabama gave North Carolina their best shot yesterday, their ace in LeBlanc on the mound, and they couldnt come close. Their hitting looked poor, and North Carolina's proved to be outstanding.

Now, North Carolina can go with 2 guys today. Bard or Woodard. Bard is a 1st round draft pick, and supposively has nastier stuff than Andrew Miller. But Miller is a lefty with a nice 6'5" frame, so he was taken #6 overall.

I dont think they'll throw Bard today, as they have usually gone with Woodard. Bard, although a immensely talented pitcher, has been terrible on the road this season. Has a hard time making it out of the 4th inning on the road, not because he gets ripped, but because he craps down his leg and walks people. But I figure since he was just drafted, now that load is lifted off his shoulders, and since NC took game 1, there is not a do-or-die pressure on him to perform. Success also breeds confidence, and Bard should find a lot of success vs. this Bama lineup. So, in case Bard throws, which he probably won't, I'm comfortable with him on the mound.

Woodard is most likely the starter today and is a junior that will NOT walk people. So, he's going to make these Alabama bats earn it today and not give them any free passes and any BS opportunities to drive runs in. Not good for Bama backers. This team really struggles to hit.

Bama will counter with Tommy Hunter. Hunter was a solid pitcher this season. 10-3 3.10 ERA. Opp bat .247 against him he leads the team in giving up doubles, and he is not a big strikeout pitcher. He also wont walk many hitters either so not many free passes for NC today.

Problem is, this UNC lineup looked outstanding vs. a great pitcher in Wade LeBlanc. They should have a much easier time today with Hunter, and thats a scary thought considering the run output this team put up yesterday.

Now, although Hunter may not walk people, he has to deal with that Bama defense, which is one of the worst fielding pct. teams in the SEC. They put some guys on base yesterday with their timely errors.

Now if Bama does have anything going for them, it's their bullpen. They were losing most of the game, so they didnt blow any of their ace's out of the bullpen in McCarter or Robertson. Problem is, NC didnt blow much of their pen either since they had the game in hand.

Bottom Line
UNC the much better hitting team, took Bama's best shot yesterday from LeBlanc. Now they'll face an easier pitcher, while they are swinging hot bats, with a chance to close this series out. They don't want to lose this thing today and give Bama any momentum back and playing that decisive game 3. You got a poor hitting team in Bama that makes too many critical errors in the field, with their backs against the wall. I think UNC gets it done tonight with a good enough start, timely hitting, and a few Bama errors.

Stanford

Nice pitcher's duel in Oregon. Dallas Buck going for the Beavers, while #2 overall pick Greg Reynolds goes for Stanford.

Stanford is no stranger to Omaha, and they have much greater baseball tradition than Oregon State. Stanford is practically synonymous with Omaha. They get their every year, and they typically reach the Finals. They have been National runner-up in 2000, 2001, and 2003. They have 2 national titles in the 80's. Went to Omaha 5 straight years from 1999-2003. Point is, this program is Omaha or bust. While Oregon State has never had a baseball tradition, they made Omaha last year as a Cinderella-type, and they are back again this year.

I think for Stanford to advance through that Texas regional is very impressive. They beat NC State twice and Texas once in their home yard to advance through as a 3 seed. Well, if Stanford is so good, how are they a 3-seed? This team has been a tale of 2 stories. They struggled early in the year, and have turned it up 2nd half of the season, riding the pitching of their ace Greg Reynolds.

I didnt like Stanford for the series, because Oregon State has a nice rotation and an ace out of the pen. Oregon State has also played Stanford 4 times this year and won all 4, including a 3-game sweep in Oregon. (At the same time Georgia won all 4 games vs. South Carolina this year, and we saw how that turned out today). But if you want to get a great "value" pick at that +178 for a single game, here it is.

Stanford has shown flashes of greatness this year. They took 3 of 4 from Texas, and swept Cal State Fullerton. Then they had their debacle vs. Oregon State, and lost 2 of 3 to Arizona.

But this is the guy we are betting on. Greg Reynolds the #2 overall pick in this year's draft goes for Stanford tonight. 91-94 with a nasty breaking ball falling off the table from his 6'7" frame.

His stats of 7-5 and a 3.00 era can be deceiving. He hasnt gotten run support in a lot of games, and a lot of times he gets left in games because he is so talented, and their coach sometimes tries to force him to throw complete games.

But this is the guy who Stanford's season rests upon. He's been on fire lately, last 2 starts have been complete games. He shut down a potent NC State offense 7-2 to win game 1 of their regional in Texas with the pressure of the draft on the horizon. He was taken #2 overall, and he can just go out there and pitch tonight.

Stanford's offensive stats arent very good on paper, but they are swinging hot bats right now. 7, 12, and 17 runs in their regional game by game.

They face off vs. Dallas Buck. Buck is the ace of Oregon State, was taken in the 3rd round and he's probably bummed about it. Was a potential late 1st, early 2nd round guy and fell. People question if he has a powerful enough fastball for the next level. He's sort of the Derek Lowe of college baseball 88-92 with tremendous sink and run. His ball has that natural sink that induces a lot of groundballs, and double plays. He's a tough match, but I think Stanford is swinging the bats hot enough to get 4 from him, and that should be all they need in this game with Reynolds on the mound.

Oregon State goes as Cole Gillespie goes. 3rd rounder left fielder is a true catalyst, and if Reynolds can keep this guy off the bases, Stanford will cruise in this game.


Bottom Line
Sticking with the hot bats, better tradition'd team, with the #1 pitcher taken in the draft from college baseball on the mound, that went through a much tougher regional to get here, and is playing hot baseball right now at a + price.

Ole Miss

I sort of have a write-up on this for the series in the other thread. So I wont go into too much detail here.

Scott Maine for Miami is an inconsistent starter. He's been bounced all around their rotation from Sunday guy to Friday guy now as Miami doesnt have a dominant Friday night starter type of guy. Maine faces a red hot Ole Miss lineup that pretty much shredded through the SEC tourney behind hit after hit after hit after hit.

I played Ole Miss for the series, but if you want to play them for a single game, this would be the game. Will Kline is their best pitcher, and he goes tonight for Ole Miss. With Kline on the mound and Ole Miss playing at home (tough atmosphere), I think Ole Miss slugs enough runs with Maine helping out with a few walks. Ole Miss can be a scrappy bunch, and both teams show athleticism on the bases with stolen bags and taking extra bases on basehits. Watch aggressive base running from both sides, runners getting themselves into scoring position, and Kline is better at holding runners on than the erratic Scott Maine. UM living off their name, keeps the line low enough for us here.

Ole Miss took Texas to 3 games last year, and had a heart-breaking loss to the eventual national champion last year. Ole Miss is on a mission to get to Omaha this year, and theyll face another tradition-rich team, but the players on Miami are too young and not battle-tested and ready for this task just yet.

Canes

Box, you dont like the Hurricanes chances tonight?

PoppinFresh said:

Box, you dont like the Hurricanes chances tonight?

Click to expand...

Whoops, sorry you posted right before me

Missouri

I just cant resist this line. Cal States best shot was last night with the outstanding Wes Roemer. Missouri held them down, but Mizzou didnt swing it enough, and their offense will be their downfall in this series.

Culp goes tonight for Mizzou, 4th rounder, left hand pitcher. Fullerton has struggled with lefties all year, and now they'll face an outstanding lefty in Culp who worked himself into the Friday night role beautifully while 1st rounder Max Scherzer was out with the hand injury from the car door, and tendinitis. Very very small play, with a nice reward. Just taking a stab for action, not laying that crazy juice with Culp going for Mizzou.

ADDING one last play:

5* Stanford/Oregon State under 10.5

I expect a big-time pitchers duel here.

Boxslayer32 said:

Missouri

I just cant resist this line. Cal States best shot was last night with the outstanding Wes Roemer. Missouri held them down, but Mizzou didnt swing it enough, and their offense will be their downfall in this series.

Culp goes tonight for Mizzou, 4th rounder, left hand pitcher. Fullerton has struggled with lefties all year, and now they'll face an outstanding lefty in Culp who worked himself into the Friday night role beautifully while 1st rounder Max Scherzer was out with the hand injury from the car door, and tendinitis. Very very small play, with a nice reward. Just taking a stab for action, not laying that crazy juice with Culp going for Mizzou.

Click to expand...

DON'T DO IT!

Lauren Gagnier is every bit as good as Wes Roemer was last night

Fullerton does struggle with lefties but this is looking like "Men against the Boys"

Missouri just looks overmatched and in over their heads

not gonna lay it - but i know better than to try and take this

Fullerton probably wins this game very easily at that, too

One note on G1

ALSO had U9 (posted it here, too) and for those of us on U9

WE GOT REALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLY LUCKY! Missouri had a million chances to score that many runs and blew them all. should have been up more than 1-0 several times and when they got ZIPPO the game was over - and the total under