Georgia vs. South Carolina
Georgia typically goes with Mickey Westphal 1st, one of their senior leaders, but their true ace is Brooks Brown. As you can tell from yesterday, South Carolina was hitting the lefthanded Westphal's tailing fastball well. Today, they'll get an entirely different look facing the powerful righty, Brooks Brown.
34th overall pick in the draft, (compensational 1st rounder) this is a big righty that will sit at 94 all game. Last time he faced South Carolina, just a few weeks ago, he pitched very well going about 7 IP and giving up 1 earned run. His opposition from South Carolina, the same guy who will pitch today Mike Cisco, get lit up pretty good at this same Georgia ballpark.
But, it's not just Brooks Brown, who is Georgia's best pitcher, who didn't pitch yesterday. Their 2 ace relievers were able to be saved since they were losing by so much. Georgia has a better bullpen than South Carolina, in set-up man, Rip Warren, and stud closer Josh Fields. Fields is 93-94 with good movement. With these 2 guys in the pen, and a 1st rounder on the mound, you can expect Georgia to hold South Carolina's offense in check this game, while getting to Cisco.
South Carolina's rotation has been inconsistent this year, throwing Wynn Pelzer some in this spot, sometimes Cisco. Cisco should get the call today, and his last memories in Georgia shouldnt be happy ones.
Everyone notcied South Carolina's back to back x 5 yesterday. But they wont do that again today. Meanwhile, you had a Georgia lineup, quietly hitting the cover off of the ball. As crazy as South Carolina's hitting wa,s Georgia was able to hang 6 runs up on the board on 11 hits. So, they werent exactly getting shut down offensively. They have to feel good about having their best 3 pitchers going today, vs. a weak Carolina bullpen, and #2 starter that they lit up just a few weeks back.
Another thing to note is this Georgia team is playing at home. Georgia doesnt have as big of a home field advantage as Ole Miss, and such, but playing at home is still a big deal. Georgia swept South Carolina at home this year, just a few weeks ago, one of those games being the same pitching matchup today.
Georgia lost in their regional to FSU, and faced elimination, and battled back to beat FSU the next 2 games, to take their regional. So this team was faced with elimination just last week, and battled through it.
There are two things stopping me from putting more on this game:
#1) As I mentioned 100 times, South Carolina is a damn good tournament team. Eveyr year. Doesnt matter how good or bad they are, they make noise in the post-season.
#2) SEC games are wars.
Nonetheless, a solid 5* on on Georgia to take this game today, and even this series back up 1-1.
Georgia typically goes with Mickey Westphal 1st, one of their senior leaders, but their true ace is Brooks Brown. As you can tell from yesterday, South Carolina was hitting the lefthanded Westphal's tailing fastball well. Today, they'll get an entirely different look facing the powerful righty, Brooks Brown.
34th overall pick in the draft, (compensational 1st rounder) this is a big righty that will sit at 94 all game. Last time he faced South Carolina, just a few weeks ago, he pitched very well going about 7 IP and giving up 1 earned run. His opposition from South Carolina, the same guy who will pitch today Mike Cisco, get lit up pretty good at this same Georgia ballpark.
But, it's not just Brooks Brown, who is Georgia's best pitcher, who didn't pitch yesterday. Their 2 ace relievers were able to be saved since they were losing by so much. Georgia has a better bullpen than South Carolina, in set-up man, Rip Warren, and stud closer Josh Fields. Fields is 93-94 with good movement. With these 2 guys in the pen, and a 1st rounder on the mound, you can expect Georgia to hold South Carolina's offense in check this game, while getting to Cisco.
South Carolina's rotation has been inconsistent this year, throwing Wynn Pelzer some in this spot, sometimes Cisco. Cisco should get the call today, and his last memories in Georgia shouldnt be happy ones.
Everyone notcied South Carolina's back to back x 5 yesterday. But they wont do that again today. Meanwhile, you had a Georgia lineup, quietly hitting the cover off of the ball. As crazy as South Carolina's hitting wa,s Georgia was able to hang 6 runs up on the board on 11 hits. So, they werent exactly getting shut down offensively. They have to feel good about having their best 3 pitchers going today, vs. a weak Carolina bullpen, and #2 starter that they lit up just a few weeks back.
Another thing to note is this Georgia team is playing at home. Georgia doesnt have as big of a home field advantage as Ole Miss, and such, but playing at home is still a big deal. Georgia swept South Carolina at home this year, just a few weeks ago, one of those games being the same pitching matchup today.
Georgia lost in their regional to FSU, and faced elimination, and battled back to beat FSU the next 2 games, to take their regional. So this team was faced with elimination just last week, and battled through it.
There are two things stopping me from putting more on this game:
#1) As I mentioned 100 times, South Carolina is a damn good tournament team. Eveyr year. Doesnt matter how good or bad they are, they make noise in the post-season.
#2) SEC games are wars.
Nonetheless, a solid 5* on on Georgia to take this game today, and even this series back up 1-1.
thank you, ppeter.
Stanford definitely blew that game a little bit. Lots of unearned runs.
I have until 10pm (eastern time) for that game, so I havnt looked at it yet.
On first glance alone, looking at team quality, I don't think all of these Supers are going to be clean 2-game sweeps. There are really 3 of the 8 series that have potential to go 3-games: OLE MISS, GEORGIA, and OREGON ST.
Wouldn't be surprised to see any of the dogs in these games win.
Now, as I said yesterday, if you wanted to play Stanford, yesterday's game was the game to do it. The deeper this series goes, the more Oregon State has the advantage. Yesterday we got the #2 overall pick in the draft at + money. Their defense shit the bed, had some unearned runs, but now OSU has a nice pitching advantage because their rotation goes deep, and they still have Gunderson to close it again today, and he's practically automatic.
After Dallas Buck for OSU, you have Jonah Nickerson. He was a key part to their trip to Omaha last year, and he goes today for OSU. 7th round pick with the Tigers, RHP.
Based off team quality, Stanford appears to be a good play at this price. But the pitching advantage for this game is in OSU's favor. They've now beaten Stanford all 5 games this season, 8 of the past 9 I believe, and Stanford has to feel snake-bit against this Oregon State team.
Havn't looked at it in-depth yet, and I'll be sure to have something better to read a little later, and a pick if I think there should be one.
Stanford definitely blew that game a little bit. Lots of unearned runs.
I have until 10pm (eastern time) for that game, so I havnt looked at it yet.
On first glance alone, looking at team quality, I don't think all of these Supers are going to be clean 2-game sweeps. There are really 3 of the 8 series that have potential to go 3-games: OLE MISS, GEORGIA, and OREGON ST.
Wouldn't be surprised to see any of the dogs in these games win.
Now, as I said yesterday, if you wanted to play Stanford, yesterday's game was the game to do it. The deeper this series goes, the more Oregon State has the advantage. Yesterday we got the #2 overall pick in the draft at + money. Their defense shit the bed, had some unearned runs, but now OSU has a nice pitching advantage because their rotation goes deep, and they still have Gunderson to close it again today, and he's practically automatic.
After Dallas Buck for OSU, you have Jonah Nickerson. He was a key part to their trip to Omaha last year, and he goes today for OSU. 7th round pick with the Tigers, RHP.
Based off team quality, Stanford appears to be a good play at this price. But the pitching advantage for this game is in OSU's favor. They've now beaten Stanford all 5 games this season, 8 of the past 9 I believe, and Stanford has to feel snake-bit against this Oregon State team.
Havn't looked at it in-depth yet, and I'll be sure to have something better to read a little later, and a pick if I think there should be one.
ope:Ole Miss has to feel like they got lucky coming away from that game yesterday, while Miami feels like they let one slip away. I don't like these Hurricanes to take the series, as I had Ole Miss yesterday, and Ole Miss for the series. But I'm making the small "value" shot at Miami here, who is much more evenly matched with Ole Miss, then a team like Missouri vs. Fullerton.
This is a small play because of the price. This line is off for this game as Ole Miss should be in the -140, -150 range at most.
Ole Miss has struggled vs. lefties this year. They are 12-9 vs. lefthanders. Miami starts LHP Manny Miguelez, who has dominant stuff, but can be wild and erratic if he's not on. The only doubt I have about this guy is how will he pitch in front of 10,000 fans at Ole Miss. Ole Miss is a tough environment, but I have the take the better pitcher in this one. He should be a nice draft pick next year.
Ole Miss has scored at least 9 runs in 9 of their past 10 games. 8 of those 9 vs. righties. Only once vs. a lefty. And before that lone time, the previous 2 times they faced a left hander, they were held to 1 run and 5 runs. Even left-handers out of the pen have given Ole Miss fits.
Now, the other thing a left-hander does is keep these two offenses from running wild on the base paths. Both teams play aggressive, and the lefty handed move should hold runners on 1st. So, I stayed away from the over, despite both of these clubs swinging hot bats. And depsite Ole Miss' struggles vs. lefties, I am not playing the under the way these two teams can swing the bats.
Ole Miss starts a lefty themselves. But this guy's stats are terrible and this is where Miami has an advantage in starting pitching:
Brett Bukvich, Redshirt Freshman, pitching in front of 10,000 strong...yikes.
6-5, 4.08 ERA, opponents batting .301 against him
88 IP, 107 hits!!!!!!!
In conference play only,
2-3, 5.12 ERA, opponents batting .308 vs. him
In a game where both teams are swinging hot bats, I'm going to go with the big underdog, who is throwing the much better pitcher and take my chances that he wont walk 100 people.
This is a small play because of the price. This line is off for this game as Ole Miss should be in the -140, -150 range at most.
Ole Miss has struggled vs. lefties this year. They are 12-9 vs. lefthanders. Miami starts LHP Manny Miguelez, who has dominant stuff, but can be wild and erratic if he's not on. The only doubt I have about this guy is how will he pitch in front of 10,000 fans at Ole Miss. Ole Miss is a tough environment, but I have the take the better pitcher in this one. He should be a nice draft pick next year.
Ole Miss has scored at least 9 runs in 9 of their past 10 games. 8 of those 9 vs. righties. Only once vs. a lefty. And before that lone time, the previous 2 times they faced a left hander, they were held to 1 run and 5 runs. Even left-handers out of the pen have given Ole Miss fits.
Now, the other thing a left-hander does is keep these two offenses from running wild on the base paths. Both teams play aggressive, and the lefty handed move should hold runners on 1st. So, I stayed away from the over, despite both of these clubs swinging hot bats. And depsite Ole Miss' struggles vs. lefties, I am not playing the under the way these two teams can swing the bats.
Ole Miss starts a lefty themselves. But this guy's stats are terrible and this is where Miami has an advantage in starting pitching:
Brett Bukvich, Redshirt Freshman, pitching in front of 10,000 strong...yikes.
6-5, 4.08 ERA, opponents batting .301 against him
88 IP, 107 hits!!!!!!!
In conference play only,
2-3, 5.12 ERA, opponents batting .308 vs. him
In a game where both teams are swinging hot bats, I'm going to go with the big underdog, who is throwing the much better pitcher and take my chances that he wont walk 100 people.
You probably have a good shot at this. You also probably know that Miami will literally have to outscore Ole Miss in order to win this one, and they are certainly capable of that. Looking forward to your write-up.
Personally, I think Ole Miss wins in a shootout, but that's just me.
Personally, I think Ole Miss wins in a shootout, but that's just me.
Definitely a better shot than +178. At +120, +130, I probably would have laid off. Funny because if this was a MLB game, most would feel this game has tremendous value.
Ole Miss is one of the toughest environments in the country to play in. And they can obviously swing it 1-9. But Miami has shown they wont be intimidated by that crowd, as they flew out of the gates yesterday vs. Ole Miss' best pitcher.
Bukvich has shown to be VERY hittable, while Miguelez has shown flashes of brilliance.
Miguelez 8-4, 4.01 ERA, opp. batting .220 against him.
He's also been their workhorse, gone deepest into games, and thats what they'll need in this game to cover up their bullpen a bit. Miami still has Chris Perez waiting in the bullpen, so that's a plus for this Miami bet. Chris Perez is dominant out of the pen sub 2.00 era. So between Miguelez and Perez, Miami should see better pitching than yesterday, while facing a guy that opponents bat .301 off of. Good value at +178.
I am rooting for Ole Miss for my series bet, and rooting for the SEC, especially because I hate the Hurricanes being a Gator. But Miami has much better shot than +178 in this one.
Ole Miss is one of the toughest environments in the country to play in. And they can obviously swing it 1-9. But Miami has shown they wont be intimidated by that crowd, as they flew out of the gates yesterday vs. Ole Miss' best pitcher.
Bukvich has shown to be VERY hittable, while Miguelez has shown flashes of brilliance.
Miguelez 8-4, 4.01 ERA, opp. batting .220 against him.
He's also been their workhorse, gone deepest into games, and thats what they'll need in this game to cover up their bullpen a bit. Miami still has Chris Perez waiting in the bullpen, so that's a plus for this Miami bet. Chris Perez is dominant out of the pen sub 2.00 era. So between Miguelez and Perez, Miami should see better pitching than yesterday, while facing a guy that opponents bat .301 off of. Good value at +178.
I am rooting for Ole Miss for my series bet, and rooting for the SEC, especially because I hate the Hurricanes being a Gator. But Miami has much better shot than +178 in this one.
Just read your write-up. You're right in everything you say, and I absolutely agree that the line is off, as Ole Miss is way over-priced.
Buckvich won't be so awed by 10,000, mostly because they'll be rooting for him. His brother pitches in the majors for the Rangers, so he's been around big crowds before. Look for true freshman Cody Satterwhite to play a big part in this game in relief with nasty stuff. His is a name to remember.
Should be a fun game. Good luck to you, even though I'm on the other side.
So far I'm enjoying the Georgia game a lot, and I'm sure you are too.
Buckvich won't be so awed by 10,000, mostly because they'll be rooting for him. His brother pitches in the majors for the Rangers, so he's been around big crowds before. Look for true freshman Cody Satterwhite to play a big part in this game in relief with nasty stuff. His is a name to remember.
Should be a fun game. Good luck to you, even though I'm on the other side.
So far I'm enjoying the Georgia game a lot, and I'm sure you are too.
Miguelez this post-season:
2-0, 1.38 ERA, 9 K's, 3 BB's (3:1 K to BB ratio), 13 IP, 9 hits
Granted, one of those starts were vs. Manhattan, who beat Nebraska to play UM. But the other start was vs. Wake Forest, which is a solid baseball school, and both starts were away from his home turf. One in the ACC tourney, one at Nebraska regional.
I don't think he'll shut Ole Miss, down, but he should be able to keep them from running wild, especially with Chris Perez rested and ready in the pen.
2-0, 1.38 ERA, 9 K's, 3 BB's (3:1 K to BB ratio), 13 IP, 9 hits
Granted, one of those starts were vs. Manhattan, who beat Nebraska to play UM. But the other start was vs. Wake Forest, which is a solid baseball school, and both starts were away from his home turf. One in the ACC tourney, one at Nebraska regional.
I don't think he'll shut Ole Miss, down, but he should be able to keep them from running wild, especially with Chris Perez rested and ready in the pen.
NY Reb said:
Satterwhite has been the man out of the pen for Ole Miss. His name is already making it's name around, and he's only a freshman. Still, Ole Miss misses the Stephen Head's and co., the stud shut-down pitchers from last year. That's why Miami has a chance in this one.
Still, like Ole Miss for the series obviously. Tough to out-hit that lineup 2/3 in their backyard.
Unorganized thread with all of the write-ups. Let me put these plays together so they are easy to find for those interested:
Today:
5* Georgia Bulldogs -117 (pending, UGA 8 winning 8-5 in the 8th)
3* Miami Hurricanes +178
This game starts at 7pm eastern.
Working on Stanford/OSU play, if any.
Today:
5* Georgia Bulldogs -117 (pending, UGA 8 winning 8-5 in the 8th)
3* Miami Hurricanes +178
This game starts at 7pm eastern.
Working on Stanford/OSU play, if any.
