Is it bad to follow a capper who is doing well. (join the party late)

Iceman · Jun 12, 2006

Think about following a capper or two for the rest of the season. Seems to work best for what I am doing with work and such.

Take a guy like Tomorrow's Newspaper who is up around 60 units right now. Do you think it is posibile that you missed the boat in this situation.

I think Bucsfan was up close to 100 units at this time last year and not sure he won a whole lot more after that (I may be wrong). Should these results play a role in who you choose to follow.

MrJ · Jun 12, 2006

Take a guy like Tomorrow's Newspaper who is up around 60 units right now. Do you think it is posibile that you missed the boat in this situation.

Mathematically it is irrelevent so shouldn't influence your decision.

Iceman · Jun 12, 2006

Mr J said:
Take a guy like Tomorrow's Newspaper who is up around 60 units right now. Do you think it is posibile that you missed the boat in this situation.

Mathematically it is irrelevent so shouldn't influence your decision.

I agree with you MR. J (seems like I always do). As I know that gambling has no memory and if this particular capper wins more than he loses than he should continue to go forward. Just throwing it out there.

MrJ · Jun 12, 2006

Well we all know how it really works, you find a good capper on a good run, jump on, lose your shirt, cut your losses only to see him run hot again

Doug · Jun 12, 2006

Usually doesn't work because you follow a guy with no long-term record that got hot. TN may work. I think Bucs historically is stronger at the beginning of the season. Hopefully Sean will comment on this. There were some big failures with this at SSB.

Iceman · Jun 12, 2006

Doug said:
Usually doesn't work because you follow a guy with no long-term record that got hot. TN may work. I think Bucs historically is stronger at the beginning of the season. Hopefully Sean will comment on this. There were some big failures with this at SSB.

Sean who?

If I decide to follow somone it would be either Bucsfan or Tomorrows newspaper (prover cappers for years). Looking at Jimmy K.

Will add someone with my plays. The problem is I have ot have their action by 2 pm and thy may be difficult on some.

MrJ · Jun 12, 2006

Doug, I'm assuming we're talking about a profitable capper. I won't follow anyone that doesn't have a hell of a longterm record.

jeckll · Jun 12, 2006

Actually I believe Bucs was in the red at the all-star break only to end up over 100 units in the black last year. Although it may not mathematically make any difference, I would be wary of jumping on a capper when he's up 60 units as you're basically banking on the fact that he will go high above 60 on the season which is unlikely.

Hard to say but I like Bucs' chances from here on out over tomorrow's newspaper if you put both of them at 0-0 right now. Don't see TN ending higher than maybe 80 while I could easily see Bucs getting 50+

Doug · Jun 12, 2006

cklennon said:
Actually I believe Bucs was in the red at the all-star break only to end up over 100 units in the black last year. Although it may not mathematically make any difference, I would be wary of jumping on a capper when he's up 60 units as you're basically banking on the fact that he will go high above 60 on the season which is unlikely.

Hard to say but I like Bucs' chances from here on out over tomorrow's newspaper if you put both of them at 0-0 right now. Don't see TN ending higher than maybe 80 while I could easily see Bucs getting 50+

I may be wrong, but I think Bucs was up good at the break last year then went about even, I think you reference an earlier season.

Doug · Jun 12, 2006

Iceman said:
Sean who?

If I decide to follow somone it would be either Bucsfan or Tomorrows newspaper (prover cappers for years). Looking at Jimmy K.

Will add someone with my plays. The problem is I have ot have their action by 2 pm and thy may be difficult on some.

He posts here on occasion, but more on Fezzik's as Increasedodds.

Doug · Jun 12, 2006

Mr J said:
Doug, I'm assuming we're talking about a profitable capper. I won't follow anyone that doesn't have a hell of a longterm record.

That long-term record can take a long time to accrue, esp. in NFL. Then you have to verify if lines were obtainable, something SSB had strong requirements for. Wasn't it Joeflex that tries to verify the past stuff, he came up with some pretty unspectacular results as I recall.

TomorrowsNewspaper · Jun 12, 2006

cklennon said:
Actually I believe Bucs was in the red at the all-star break only to end up over 100 units in the black last year. Although it may not mathematically make any difference, I would be wary of jumping on a capper when he's up 60 units as you're basically banking on the fact that he will go high above 60 on the season which is unlikely.

Hard to say but I like Bucs' chances from here on out over tomorrow's newspaper if you put both of them at 0-0 right now. Don't see TN ending higher than maybe 80 while I could easily see Bucs getting 50+[/quote]

Interesting. Can I ask you why you feel that way? Guess I should just quit for the rest of the season.

I did have a bad second half last year but the two years before were 100+ unit winners. Last year I believe I lost around 15 to 25 units the second half.

jeckll · Jun 12, 2006

Not really a personal affront, TN, and I used to check your threads daily here and believe you are an extremely solid capper.

However, +60 units on the year is extremely solid. I would say that you and Bucs are both on equal footing as far as capping skill, and believe that all bettors, including "solid cappers," revert to the mean (more specifically, their own mean) as the season goes on. While Bucs is at +20 units I would say his personal mean is about 50 or more whereas I think yours is equal, maybe even higher, but certainly no higher than 90 units (which, if you went up 30 units, you would hit, while Bucs, if he goes up 30 units, will get only to 50)

I do believe that sometimes it's a better idea for some cappers to call it quits if they're up a great amount in the middle of the year, which you are. Very difficult to do that however and I'm not saying I think that's a best idea for you, just that if you end up over 90+ on the year I will be very impressed to say the least, while I can easily see bucs going to 50+. That being said if someone is jumping on board, in my opinion, it would be better to go with the solid capper who is down as opposed to the one who is already up.

ppeter · Jun 12, 2006

If a guy starts out white-hot, the only way you will make any money is to FADE AWAY.

the gravitational pull of the law of average is very powerful indeed, and eventually everyone is dragged towards 50%.....

Puccini · Jun 12, 2006

I think that following solid handicappers is actually the way to go--assuming you're line shopping and taking advantage of bonuses.

Some say, if you follow other people then you have to follow them down...but if I make my own bets I'll go down at some point too. Am I, or most people, really a better handicapper than Tomorrow's Newspaper or others? Maybe, but I doubt it...

Capping is an enormously time consuming venture, so why not save time by following someone and concentrate on money mangagement, line shopping, bonuses, contests, etc...?

Just be prepared for the ups and downs, which can really be substantial. But they're going to be substantial no matter what you do. It's just a fact of gambling that can't be ignored.

Personally, I think that being aware of hourly "income" is very important, and following someone can maximize that.

TomorrowsNewspaper · Jun 12, 2006

a lot of negative thinking on this site lately. could be why so many are losing here. I have won over 100 units 2 of the 3 years posting here and over 50 the other year. If I believed that because I won yesterday and am "due" to lose tomorrow, I would never gamble. that is a losing way to approach things. Guess since i am up over 300 units for the last 3 1/2 years, the next 3 1/2 years I am going to lose my ass...

Iceman · Jun 12, 2006

Tomorrow's Newspaper said:
a lot of negative thinking on this site lately. could be why so many are losing here. I have won over 100 units 2 of the 3 years posting here and over 50 the other year. If I believed that because I won yesterday and am "due" to lose tomorrow, I would never gamble. that is a losing way to approach things. Guess since i am up over 300 units for the last 3 1/2 years, the next 3 1/2 years I am going to lose my ass...

I am sure you don't need me to pat you on the back but keep up the outstanding work. I agree with you. Gambling has no memory, each day presents its own challenge. You don't win today becuase you lost yesterday or vice versa. Peoplee can't just comprehend this. This is the main reason I tried talking Choptalk in not quitting, after hundreds of plays his edgae should kick in. I guess his bankroll had taken a hit. i understand that. Keep up the great work because of your cofidence and passion you will be someone I will continue to follow.

TomorrowsNewspaper · Jun 12, 2006

Thanks Iceman. You are right on the money. These are the same people that watch the roulette wheel hit black 5 times in a row and then want to bet everything that the next spin "has" to be red.

I like to do things the other way. I will ride a streak instead of believing it has to end. I think most sucessful gamblers incorperate this kind of thinking. If a team is on a 4 game winning streak and I bet that it continues I can win an unlimited number of times as the streak continues and can only lose one bet when it finally does come to an end. If I am betting against the streak, just the opposite is true. I can lose over and over as the streak continues yet only win one time when it finally does come to an end.

Ice, I enjoy reading your posts. You have the right mindset to be a very sucessful gambler. I wish you the best of luck in your pursuit. I'll be watching.

tn

MrJ · Jun 12, 2006

ppeter said:
If a guy starts out white-hot, the only way you will make any money is to FADE AWAY.

the gravitational pull of the law of average is very powerful indeed, and eventually everyone is dragged towards 50%.....

That is absolute crap. Winrate will regress to the mean percentage wise, NOT numberswise. If someone goes 100-0, they should be at 5050-4950 after 10k picks if they are a coinflipper. Most people who go on a hot run will lose afterwards, but because they are 50% bettors and not because results 'even out' (they don't). You would likely lose by fading him too since you can't win by fading a 50% bettor.

Iceman · Jun 12, 2006

TN,
have bet baseball pretty much all year and have been spinning my wheels (up around 5 units, though it has been more of a roller coaster from up +30 units). I have wanted to learn and win and feel like I have not been FULLY rewarded for all the time I have put in. I can't complain though for I have not lost.

I have tried every avenue to beat bases (betting just soft numbers, capping, scalping,etc...) and now I am looking into following a few PROVEN cappers. Time is money and I have spent alot of time during bases spinning my wheels and less time working on something that could help me make some $$.

Will be posting a new thread tomorrow on my next adventure. I beleieve every sport has its own unique to win at gambling and bases holds the truest to form. Meaning you guys that have won in the past should ,more than likely win in the future because of all the plays (the luck factor is smallest). Overall I am VERY excitited about this new test. I plan on using you and your plays in it. Thanks again and good luck (to the both of us).

Also don't let the negative stuff get you down, you have posted for years and know that a few bad apples doesnt' speak for all of us. :suomi: