Boxslayer's NCAA Baseball MONDAY*

2-0 yesterday

For thsoe who followed the series plays, we have some series plays pending:

1) Rice
2) Ole Miss

I do not suggest any kind of a buy back/hedge on Rice. This is a game they should win 9 out of 10 times today. They have a huge pitching mismatch for starting pitcher, AND bullpen even more so, they are at home, and they are the 2003 National Champs who missed Omaha last year. I think they get it done and return the Omaha. I'd be really surprised to see them lose this today.

However, Ole Miss has really put themselves in a bad position. They allowed Miami #3 Danny Gil to shut them down last night, doing 3 things:

1) Allowed UM to save Manny Miguelez (left-hander). Not only do they struggle vs. lefties, but Miguelez has been on fire this post-season.
2) They wasted Cody Satterwhite for 5 innings yesterday, their ace reliever out of the bullpen.
3) They put themselves in a deja-vu scenario, wondering if they are going to blow it again this year. Ole Miss hasnt been to Omaha in 34 years I believe, they took game 1 at Ole Miss super regional last year from Texas, then lost the next 2. They take game 1 from Miami. Now they lost yesterday, and they have to be wondering if it happens again. Is this team defeated before they even step on the field?
4) They got shut out yesterday. Nothing positive to take from yesterday's game. At least when Georgia got an ass-kicking, they put up 6 runs on 11 hits and took something positive into next game.
5) Ole Miss will start freshman Lance Lynn who has been erratic this season.

With these things in mind, I am recommending a small buy-back/hedge on the Ole Miss series play.

For me, I had:

4* Ole Miss -165 for the series

So, I am taking a small buy-back, and taking University of Miami for 2* +142 for the single game tonight to reduce my Ole Miss series play (cutting it in half). I know I'm conceding some money here, but I don't like Ole Miss' spot tonight.

Back with plays for tonight.

couple of mistakes in my write-up above, I swear I know how to count

Miami Hurricanes @ Ole Miss Rebels

4* Ole Miss/Miami over 12

Bigger play later.

Today's Breakdown:

Hitting: EVEN
Pitching: MIAMI
Bullpen: OLE MISS
INTANGIBLES: EVEN

Elimination game.

Game 1:
Hurricanes got up 9-3 in game 1, Ole Miss rallied to win 11-9 as UM Coach Jim Morris didn't want to go to UM's weakness (bullpen) so early, so he left starter Scott Maine out to dry.

Game 2:
UM dominates throughout 7-0.

You have a Miami team that is oozing with confidence right now, feeling that Miami swagger. They feel like they let one get away in game 1, while Ole Miss came away feeling lucky. Then the dominant performance in game 2. Now, Ole Miss is fighting that deja-vu feeling from last year.

Today:

Miami starts:

soph. LHP Manny Miguelez - 8-4, 4.01 ERA, opp. bat .227 against him

Post-season: 2-0, 1.70 ERA (vs. Manhattan and Wake)

Vs. good competition
GA TECH 3.1 IP 5 hits 4 runs 3 earned 1 walk 1 strikeout
VA: 2.2 IP 7 hits 8 runs 6 earned 1 walk 3 strikeouts
FSU: 2.1 IP 4 hits 4 runs 4 earned 5 walks 1 strikeout
UNC: 2.2 IP 4 hits 4 runs 4 earned 3 walks 1 strikeout
CLEMS: 7.0 IP 6 hits 5 runs 5 earned 2 walks 4 strikeouts

18 IP, 26 hits, 25 runs, 22 earned, 12 walks, 10 strikeouts, 11.00ERA



vs.

Ole Miss:

fresh. RHP Lance Lynn - 7-3, 4.57 ERA, opp. bat .264 against him
48 BB's in 82 IP, SEC opponent bat .275 against him

Now, I liked Miguelez yesterday vs. Ole Miss because he's been pitching well this post-season, Ole Miss struggles vs. lefties, I didnt like Ole Miss' pitcher Bukvich at all, etc.

But now that Ole Miss got a tase of Danny Gil, who easily throws the single nastiest pitch in the country, with that dancing split finger that falls off the table, I think this scrappy Ole Miss lineup will be thrilled to be facing anything BUT that dancing splitfinger from Gil. Gil shut out Ole Miss yesterday basically with that single pitch and mixing in fastballs to keep them honest. It's not the same with Miguelez.

Miguelez can be rattled, he has some real good stuff at times, but if he starts getting hit by this Ole Miss lineup, he gets rattled, he leaves balls over the plate and Ole Miss should hammer them.

On the flip side, Ole Miss starts a freshman that has also been very hittable this year. Also has shown a lack of control from his walk to IP ratio and strikeout to walks ratio.

Finally, you have a poor Miami bullpen and a very average Ole Miss bullpen that wasted their best reliever in Cody Satterwhite. Now, from Ole Miss I wouldnt be surprised to see Will Kline come out of relief in this game, their starter from the 1st game who was chased out early. So, between Kline and their other regular reliever, Garrett White, Ole Miss has the bullpen advantage, albeit not a great one.

Both clubs are swinging very hot bats, and after Ole Miss came back on Saturday from a 9-3 deficit, you better believe neither of these teams will let up scoring after a big 6 run lead.

I think Ole Miss gets the bats back going tonight, and Miami continues their hot hitting. Both teams should get a few free passes from the pitchers and some timely hitting from lineups that have proven clutch. I think both lineups know going into this game that they start unreliable pitchers, and they will need to outscore each other.

Bottom Line
Tough environment, and a tough game for 2 erratic youngsters, a freshman and sophomore with poor bullpens behind them vs. 2 good hitting teams.

Goodluck today, Box. Really need Rice to show up today and take out OU early.

I hope I didnt sway you towards that shaq prop Box. Miami just couldnt get anything going on that Dallas defense. Great day yesterday on the college ball.

res said:

Goodluck today, Box. Really need Rice to show up today and take out OU early.

Click to expand...

Nothing like using your closer in the 1st inning.

PoppinFresh said:

I hope I didnt sway you towards that shaq prop Box. Miami just couldnt get anything going on that Dallas defense. Great day yesterday on the college ball.

Click to expand...

No, I didn't take it. As you can tell from my "unit size" * ranking, I wasn't very confident in the Heat to win that game. I wasnt going to put more on them in any way shape or form, including prop bets. Let's get these games today. I have a big play coming up later.

BIG PLAY - Yummy~~~~~~

Jacksorbetter said:

Nothing like using your closer in the 1st inning.

Click to expand...

that was odd, wasnt it?

Good Luck

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Georgia Bulldogs



9* South Carolina/Georgia over 13
3* South Carolina +148



I Like South Carolina for about 1/3rd of the amount of the over.
Keep it conservative, folks. My "Locks of Millenium" are 12*-15* ranking. And even those aren't really Locks. This is 8*, one of the bigger plays of the past few days, but we're still gambling. No all-ins please. Write-up below.


South Carolina
Wynn Pelzer, soph. RHP

Wynn Pelzer.... 7.2 IP 10 hits 7 runs 7 earned 3 walks 3 strikeouts last time vs. Georgia

1) Last time South Carolina faced a freshman lefty, they won 21-4 vs. the Florida Gators
2) South Carolina 18-11 vs. lefties
3) Obviously destroyed Georgia's last lefty, senior leader Mickey Westphal for back-to-back x5 homeruns
4) South Carolina has zero bullpen left. Wynn Pelzer is their big bullpen stopper, who has made some spot starts, but he is now starting, and he wont be allowed to be on a short leash, he'll be left out to dry as SC has little left in the pen.
5) Last time South Carolina faced Moreau? SEC Tournament.
Nathan Moreau....... 1.2 IP 6 hits 8 runs 7 earned 1 BB 1 K
6) List of last four lefties faced:

Georgia LHP, Mickey Westphal.. 1.2 IP 7 hits 7 runs 7 earned 1 BB 0 K
Evansville LHP, Tuomi, Kai.... 2.1 IP 4 hits 3 runs 3 earned 1 BB 2 K
Virginia, LHP, Sean Doolittle..... 4.0 IP 5 hits 6 runs 6 earned 4 BB 5 K
Georgia, LHP, Nathan Moreau.. 1.2 IP 6 hits 8 runs 7 earned 1 BB 1 K

South Carolina last 4 vs. lefties: 9.2 IP, 22 hits, 24 runs, 23 earned, 6 BB, 8 Ks

Last 4 lefties vs. South Carolina ERA: 21.42 ERA
UGA's last 2 lefties vs. South Carolina: 37.83 ERA


Georgia
Freshman LHP, Nathan Moreau 8-1, 5.37 ERA, opp. bat .284 vs. him

Not a lot of starting experience, served as a reliever most of the year, until he emerged as the 3rd starter. This guy does not strike out a lot of players. Only 11 K's in 24 IP in conference play. NOT GOOD vs. an aggressive South Carolina offense that crushes lefties. How will he be mentally? A freshman who had a very recent punishing by this same South Carolina team foaming at the mouth to face him, while playing a do-or-die game to go to OMaha?

Last 3 Games vs. Georgia this year

11-5 Georgia
15-6 Carolina
16-10 Georgia

Depleted bullpens, hot hitting teams, subpar starters. SEC teams Battling back and forth, with the high scoring tone, set for the series by the 1st 2 games, battling for Omaha.

South Carolina has been to Omaha 3 of the past 4 seasons. They know what it takes. They are one of the strongest post-season teams left, with great tournament savvy. They know how to get it done. I like them small today, only small because they have no bullpen left. Georgia does. South Carolina will need to jump up big early to hold on in this one, and they should be able to as they crush lefties, and have crushed this lefty before.

Updated and Final Card for Today:

9* South Carolina/Georgia over 13
3* South Carolina +148

4* Ole Miss/Miami over 12

Pending:
4* Ole Miss -165 for the series
2* Miami Hurricanes 50% buyback +142

Thanks for the writeup Box. I'm on it. Let's hope it all works out exactly as you see it. Would be nice to get the big one tonight!

You sure do move lines. Now O/U 14 at Pinny.

Rice finally cashes in on their bases loaded situations. They were leaving tons of men on, and Oklahoma's game 3 pitching is showing it's true colors.

Rice has burned their stud closer Cole St. Clair, but they have Bryce Cox who is a great pitcher with a lead. Big time strike thrower, won't give Oklahoma anything free.

8-4 Rice, still batting in the 6th and half the Oklahoma coaching staff ejected

I am not going to post my own thread today, but rather will defer to Boxslayer's more widely read thread and simply share my perspective for what it's worth. Box has the only sensible thread on the Internet discussing betting college baseball, and he certainly adds a lot of insight to the games.

The main reason I don't have my own thread today is I don't have a strong play on tonight's game. Obviously either team is capable of winning it, and it would be foolish to invest a whole lot of money on either side. There's probably more value on the Miami side. Still, I am a little more optimistic than Box regarding Ole Miss chances of winning tonight.

Boxslayer's write-up is deadly correct on everything he says. Still, I like Lance Lynn at this stage of his development. He came in last summer as a wide-eyed, out-of-shape rookie from Indiana, 6-5 and 270, looking like a tight end for Orgeron, who just happened to throw a baseball 95 mph, and between last August and now he has learned how to pitch on a major college level. He went through the SEC season as the Sunday starter, and Ole Miss won most Sunday games. Of all the Ole Miss pitchers, true freshmen Lynn and Satterwhite are the two flame-throwers who can dominate when they are on.

Box, you were right on everything you said about Buckvich, even prophetic-like. I predict that, even though he is a freshman starter this year, he won't be a weekend starter next year, but will yield to Satterwhite who will join Kline and Lynn as the weekend guys. Buckvich might ultimately be better as a hard-hitting 1st baseman, as he was quite the slugger in high school.

Lynn was drafted in the 6th round out of high school, so he is a known talent to baseball people. He could dominate tonight. He could silence the Miami bats tonight. People should know that he is very talented and he is extremely capable of doing the job. He'll be pitching in the majors one of these days, and people will be amazed that he and Satterwhite both pitched on the same team in college.

Anyway, Box is right, Lynn has been erratic and he can be wild. Also, Miami batters have already seen the best pitchers over the course of their schedule, and they are fully capable of winning tonight.

I think Lynn will be good for 5-7 innings, then we will see Will Kline, who is nasty when on, probably Garrett White to close, and possibly even Satterwhite again if needed. These guys want to go to Omaha like crazy. That's what they were recruited to do and they can taste it. Of course, Miami is the same way, so it should be a great game.

I predict Boxslayer and I -- and all who followed -- will win our series bet on Ole Miss, that Lynn pitches the game of his life, and that Ole Miss goes to the College World Series first time since 1977.

Final score: Ole Miss 8 Miami 4

I just wouldn't bet the house on it.

Lock of the Millenium 5, 6, whatever number it was comes through.

Locks of the Millenium this year are 4-1 or 5-1.

Rice wins the series.

I was extremely confident that even if Oklahoma stole a game, that their pitching was their downfall. This series I did not recommend a buy back, despite Oklahoma's game 2 win.

However, on this Ole Miss series, once again, I do recommend a small buyback. I bought back 50%. I still think Ole Miss can win this series, but I dont like this spot for them tonight. So I "downgraded" Ole Miss for the series from 4* to a small 2* play. Obviously, I still have money on Ole Miss to win the series. But, I'm not as confident in this as they blew their bullpen ace yesterday, and Miami countered by starting their #3 and winning yesterday. Setting up their #2 tonight, vs. Ole Miss #3.

And to the guy who went all-in, I'm very happy for you. Please dont do that again. LOL.

NY Reb said:

I am not going to post my own thread today, but rather will defer to Boxslayer's more widely read thread and simply share my perspective for what it's worth. Box has the only sensible thread on the Internet discussing betting college baseball, and he certainly adds a lot of insight to the games.

The main reason I don't have my own thread today is I don't have a strong play on tonight's game. Obviously either team is capable of winning it, and it would be foolish to invest a whole lot of money on either side. There's probably more value on the Miami side. Still, I am a little more optimistic than Box regarding Ole Miss chances of winning tonight.

Boxslayer's write-up is deadly correct on everything he says. Still, I like Lance Lynn at this stage of his development. He came in last summer as a wide-eyed, out-of-shape rookie from Indiana, 6-5 and 270, looking like a tight end for Orgeron, who just happened to throw a baseball 95 mph, and between last August and now he has learned how to pitch on a major college level. He went through the SEC season as the Sunday starter, and Ole Miss won most Sunday games. Of all the Ole Miss pitchers, true freshmen Lynn and Satterwhite are the two flame-throwers who can dominate when they are on.

Box, you were right on everything you said about Buckvich, even prophetic-like. I predict that, even though he is a freshman starter this year, he won't be a weekend starter next year, but will yield to Satterwhite who will join Kline and Lynn as the weekend guys. Buckvich might ultimately be better as a hard-hitting 1st baseman, as he was quite the slugger in high school.

Lynn was drafted in the 6th round out of high school, so he is a known talent to baseball people. He could dominate tonight. He could silence the Miami bats tonight. People should know that he is very talented and he is extremely capable of doing the job. He'll be pitching in the majors one of these days, and people will be amazed that he and Satterwhite both pitched on the same team in college.

Anyway, Box is right, Lynn has been erratic and he can be wild. Also, Miami batters have already seen the best pitchers over the course of their schedule, and they are fully capable of winning tonight.

I think Lynn will be good for 5-7 innings, then we will see Will Kline, who is nasty when on, probably Garrett White to close, and possibly even Satterwhite again if needed. These guys want to go to Omaha like crazy. That's what they were recruited to do and they can taste it. Of course, Miami is the same way, so it should be a great game.

I predict Boxslayer and I -- and all who followed -- will win our series bet on Ole Miss, that Lynn pitches the game of his life, and that Ole Miss goes to the College World Series first time since 1977.

Final score: Ole Miss 8 Miami 4

I just wouldn't bet the house on it.

Click to expand...

NYReb - Thanks for posting! :toast:

Also, I'll give a couple of quick thoughts about Lance Lynn for those looking to watch a good college baseball game tonight, I didnt go into too much depth about him in my original writeup...

Lynn, indeed was drafted 6th round out of high school. And in terms of his stuff, he's got a good live fastball, and a big frame, thats what got him drafted. The problem with Lynn is he can't get any of his off-speed stuff over for strikes. When a hitter is at the dish knowing the pitcher cant throw anything but the fastball for strikes, and even that can be erratic at times, it makes it easy to hit.

Miami is a team that can hit the fastball. They will be able to time Lynn up. They are aggressive at the plate, and when you cant spot up a 2nd pitch, vs. an aggressive offensive club, thats how you get opponents batting .275 against him in the SEC.

Also, when you get a big slow righty on the mound, that Miami running game and Jim Morris will make him work. I expect to see them put a lot of pressure on Lynn tonight when they get men on, stealing, hitting and running, and sac bunting, forcing him to move that big frame off the mound and move around and make some tough athletic plays.

Now, knowing Lynn is a freshman, pitching in one of the most important games in Ole Miss history, I imagine he'll have a tough time getting those pitches over strikes with his nerves. It's going to be about how he channels that energy and nerves. Will he use it to go deeper into the game? Or will he try to overthrow? I think he's going to give Miami a few free passes. If Miami gets a man on, it's going to be run rabbit run, sac bunts etc and force him to play defense.

Now, I don't think Lynn needs to pitch the game of his life here. If he can go 5-6 IP, and give up 3 runs, Ole Miss will be in good shape with Kline and White out of the pen today. I think Will Kline pitches better out of the pen, than a starter, and he's eager to bounceback from his poor outing on Saturday. He's pitched out of the pen some this year, and has had some success so he's no stranger to the bullpen.

If Ole Miss can get into Miamis bullpen early, this will be game over. Miamis pen is weak. But, like Lance Lynn, if Miguelez also can go 6 strong, they have Chris Perez waiting, who showed dominant stuff closing out the game vs. Ole Miss, this will be a big plus for Miami.

Finally, controlling the running game is a big advantage for Miami. With big righthander Lynn on the mound, Miami can play that UM style of ball, being aggressive on the base paths, while Miguelez's left-handed move should keep Ole Miss runners from going in motion on 1st.

Should be a great game which is why I am laying off the side. But I do think these pitchers give up some runs today. Over 12 looked good for me, as I think these two young pitchers show some nerves, and these two outstanding offenses go to work yet again.

GO REBELS!

Thanks for your work Box as it is truely appreciated. BEST of LUCK to you and all the RX players and again THANKS!!!!!!!!!!!