For the US WC bettors

andynbg · Jun 12, 2006

I got a serious question. I don`t want to sound like an arse but do you guys have a chance to follow european football (soccer) on a regular basis?
I am asking you because I was wondering why many of you were betting on the USA. I am watching around 8-10 games a week (sometimes in a broadcast conference) and follow most of the leagues close (except for skandinavia, eastern europe and some minor countries). I know many of the players by their name and that gives me the opportunity to rate the WC teams. Some guys are way off with their predictions. I would never ever bet on any South American competition or the MLS because I know nothing about these leagues or competitions.
Please post how you decide which side you play. This thread is just for North Americans.

WildBill · Jun 12, 2006

I don't watch too much European action, mostly just some Champions League and EPL. I don't watch MLS much either, most of my betting and watching is the Mexican league.

My theory is that European and Asian bettors are going to dominate the action and hence the lines here. They watch almost nothing but European games so they will bias towards the European teams and the lines will reflect this. The best strategy IMO is to lean towards non-European squads in the preliminary round and the round of 16, then move towards the European squads and Brazil/Argentina (they are almost nothing but European players). My thought is the best players in the world don't necessarily play a great team game off the bat. They need some game time together to really reach peak form, the kind which justifies wagers. The lesser squads of the world tend to come together quicker just from my observation and play fairly well early when the world's money is against them. As the games get bigger, the pressure situation starts to favor the European players who play in such spots all the time. Add to this the bettors have seen a lot of substandard efforts up to this point from teams they expect a lot from and the lines start to balance out.

jwunderdog · Jun 12, 2006

I didn't post a play but took US based on a German and a Dutch handicapper, so don't think it was just a US bias.

andynbg · Jun 12, 2006

WildBill said:
I don't watch too much European action, mostly just some Champions League and EPL. I don't watch MLS much either, most of my betting and watching is the Mexican league.

My theory is that European and Asian bettors are going to dominate the action and hence the lines here. They watch almost nothing but European games so they will bias towards the European teams and the lines will reflect this. The best strategy IMO is to lean towards non-European squads in the preliminary round and the round of 16, then move towards the European squads and Brazil/Argentina (they are almost nothing but European players). My thought is the best players in the world don't necessarily play a great team game off the bat. They need some game time together to really reach peak form, the kind which justifies wagers. The lesser squads of the world tend to come together quicker just from my observation and play fairly well early when the world's money is against them. As the games get bigger, the pressure situation starts to favor the European players who play in such spots all the time. Add to this the bettors have seen a lot of substandard efforts up to this point from teams they expect a lot from and the lines start to balance out.

You are right with the following statement: " My theory is that European and Asian bettors are going to dominate the action and hence the lines here."
For example I am 11-2 in the greek contest. We Europeans have the advantage of seeing most of the players each week and can therefore predict the outcome of any game way better than most (not all) North Americans can.
We have the advantage for soccer in the same way you have it for football and basketball. I guess it should be nearly equal for baseball.

joeyfitzclick · Jun 12, 2006

For example I am 11-2 in the greek contest. We Europeans have the advantage of seeing most of the players each week and can therefore predict the outcome of any game way better than most (not all) North Americans can.

What do you want us to do ? Throw you a f***ing tea party ?

SportSavant · Jun 12, 2006

I bet for the sake of betting, as I must have the action

SportSavant · Jun 12, 2006

andy.... Ill bet ya an AMERICAN who has no clue of soccer wins the greek contest....

care to offer any odds?

andynbg · Jun 12, 2006

It could be possible because most of the players are Americans. However I would be that some European wins it (or at least someone who has european roots).

DonMelchor · Jun 12, 2006

joeyfitzclick said:
For example I am 11-2 in the greek contest. We Europeans have the advantage of seeing most of the players each week and can therefore predict the outcome of any game way better than most (not all) North Americans can.

What do you want us to do ? Throw you a f***ing tea party ?

uppy:

WildBill · Jun 12, 2006

andynbg said:
You are right with the following statement: " My theory is that European and Asian bettors are going to dominate the action and hence the lines here."
For example I am 11-2 in the greek contest. We Europeans have the advantage of seeing most of the players each week and can therefore predict the outcome of any game way better than most (not all) North Americans can.
We have the advantage for soccer in the same way you have it for football and basketball. I guess it should be nearly equal for baseball.

You might have more sense of the players and all, but I assure you far more than half of the people in Europe are having the familiarity bite them in the ass. I know people who watch countless NFL games a week and they still can't pick worth a shit. Proper application of personal knowledge is what wins, not simple knowledge.

In this case the majority of bettors are overbetting the European sides and the books are making them pay for it.