carolina, in hindsight, i liked cincy today....
the one thing that kept me from making a big play on it was bullpen...i kept it small at 3 units...
we know how much hullpen has played a factor this year on MLB games, but i felt the pitching was such a mismatch, that cincy would be able to playe early runs
what was the factor that put you on milwaukee in this game? I really felt this was a cincy or no play....you played milwaukee....was it the bullpen?
i know offensive production was about even
let me know and thanks for the marlins! we need some "contrarian" thinking around here. a lot of people keep betting on the same old teams waiting for the braves to bounce back and win the pennant or for the yankees to win it all. we need more people starting FADE THE BRAVES thread. too easy to start a fade the royals thread. you've gone out on a limb and it has really helped make the rx better. great idea, not a very popular one or ("square") but a very "sharp" one. any insight would be appreciated as you have been LEGIT in bases. probably the most underrated posted on the net.
stay motivated, keep trucking along, you're really doing well.
the one thing that kept me from making a big play on it was bullpen...i kept it small at 3 units...
we know how much hullpen has played a factor this year on MLB games, but i felt the pitching was such a mismatch, that cincy would be able to playe early runs
what was the factor that put you on milwaukee in this game? I really felt this was a cincy or no play....you played milwaukee....was it the bullpen?
i know offensive production was about even
let me know and thanks for the marlins! we need some "contrarian" thinking around here. a lot of people keep betting on the same old teams waiting for the braves to bounce back and win the pennant or for the yankees to win it all. we need more people starting FADE THE BRAVES thread. too easy to start a fade the royals thread. you've gone out on a limb and it has really helped make the rx better. great idea, not a very popular one or ("square") but a very "sharp" one. any insight would be appreciated as you have been LEGIT in bases. probably the most underrated posted on the net.
stay motivated, keep trucking along, you're really doing well.
Boxslayer first think for the kind words.as for the cinny game i do not buy into the theory that a team is due,when a team is playing bad and at home too, play against that team until you see some wins being put together wait til they get on the road and bet on them.also this cinny number was very weak from the time is open at a lot of vegas outs til it close.and yes the bullpen was at the top of my list when i circle this game for tonite.as for the fade the braves like i said in another thread im not trying to rub it into anybody face that love the braves,what im trying to do is to help out and save people some money.when a team in any sport win for such a long time it hard to get off them and you kept chasing trying to get that spark,in the braves case this year i really dont think we will see that and we have a chance to make some good cash going against this team imo.as always best of luck!!!..ck
carolinakid said:
well i agree that teams are never "due"....we can say so mathematically, but math has no memory.
i never felt the reds were due, i felt the reds would have confidence coming into tonight at home with their ace on the mound. this is usually the case, in my humble opinion, not tonight obviously, and you made a sharp post on milwaukee.
one key thing i saw you say is "wait until teams put some wins together...wait until they get on the road and then bet on them..."
of all sports, in my opinion, major league baseball probably has the least effect on the road...aka, doesnt effect the road team. This is something that was brought to my attention by CHOPTALK, and something that i have followed and he is correct, so I will agree that you are correct about the road teams.
the reds have yet to put together any wins at home vs. this milwaukee team...reds down 0-2, game 3 coming...what do you consider to be a "few wins" before they go on the road?
are you trying to say if the reds get swept at home, and go on a 6 game losing streak, and then go on a 6 game road trip, you will not be betting on the Reds on any of these road games unless they string together some wins?
From an analytical perspective, I felt if the Reds lost this game it would be because of their pen. And I think this team may be great OVER BET and FADE until their bullpen gets rested and healthy because outside of Arroyo, they have no consistent starting pitching....and we know they can put up runs in bunches.
Really me trying to pick your brain a bit, and maybe share some of your insight that is working so well. Keep doing whatever it is you are doing and dont change a thing. Thanks.
