goodcall's MLB Picks

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Hey, I don't have the number of posts needed to get these picks in the tracker forum, so I'll post them here every day...if that's legal.

I'll follow all the same guidelines of the tracker, and see how I do.

This is kind of an experiment...I created a system in Excel using macros that uses past scores and predicts winners. Basically, the rule I'll be following for the rest of the season will be to bet all the teams my system tells me to if I can get the line for +110 or better (so basically, some underdogs). My last few days have turned out nicely, so my luck is bound to change as I start posting...

All plays will be 5 units ($500).


I know these first picks are about an inning late, but I don't think anyone cares. Lines are from last night, when I made the picks.

Here goes:


YTD: 0-0
Profit: $0

6/13 Baltimore +265
6/13 Florida +130
6/13 Colorado +139
6/13 Milwaukee +170
6/13 Seattle +112
 

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YTD:
3-2, +$1195

Yesterday:
3-2, +$1195

Picks:
6/14 Milwaukee +158 (Pinnacle)
6/14 Colorado +125 (BetCRIS)
6/14 NY Mets +135 (VIP)
 

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If there were a "free picks" section, I'd put St. Louis up for tonight...but I won't count it toward or against my record or profits.
 

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Crap, too late for the 1PM games...sorry

Picks:
6/15 Minnesota +132 (Pinnacle)
6/15 Kansas City +250 (Pinnacle)
6/15 Houston +158 (BetJamaica)
 

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Here they are anyway...I swear I didn't look at the scores yet, and it's still early in the games.

Picks:
6/15 Tampa Bay +165 (bodog)
6/15 Colorado +121 (BetJamaica)
6/15 NY Mets +114 (Cascade)
 
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NICE JOB SO FAR WOW WISH I WOULD HAVE JUMPED ON BOARD. BUT I CANT JUST JUMP IN THE LAST MINUTE ILL WAIT TIL TOMORROW.:103631605 :toast: :toast:
 

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lol thanks...I ran the numbers on last season using the same system: at each play at 5 units ($500), net profit is +$64,540. The beginning of this season is also on track
 

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Interleage play

Good call so far Goodcall! Does your system do good in interleage play? Keep it up.:103631605
 

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Could u please explain this nice winning system? And how u decide on the picks?? :) Thanks
 

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Alright guys, here goes. About four years ago, I started really getting into college basketball. I spent the next 2-3 years perfecting a rating system for it (can be seen at picklesratings.com for another couple months). If you look at the description on the site, there are two parts to it: the Predictive Rating System (PRS) and the Overall Rating System (ORS). The PRS is basically how "hot" a team is, and the ORS is the average of all the PRS scores a team has. After this basketball season (which Duke should have won, according to the ORS...grrr) I started trying to figure out how to use the rating system to make some money. I tried all sorts of things on college basketball, looking at the last 7 years, and I think I finally found an OK system with that.

I then started applying it to other sports, and realized the system works beautifully and simply with NFL moneylines. Since it's baseball season, I also ran the numbers on the past few seasons in baseball...and it works just like NFL.

Here's how it works: The PRS picks a winner of each game each day. I then place a bet on every team that the system picks that is a +110 underdog or better. So every play I have will be an underdog.

Last year the system went 391-390...right around 50% (so the last few days are, admittedly, above average). But since every play was on an underdog, each win won more than each loss lost. Assuming 8 cent lines, that came out to +$12908, with $100 on each game. I'm putting $500 (5 units) on each game in this thread, just to make the numbers higher, really.

I'll post the ORS for baseball in this thread at least weekly, starting with later today. Place some future bets on the top couple teams, and you'll have some nice hedging opportunities at the end of the season.

I'll try the system on other sports as we get closer to the beginning of seasons. With the CFL opener today, I tried the system on that. Absolutely terrible, and I can't figure out why. Maybe something to do with the fact that there's only 8 or 9 teams.

As for interleague play, I treat those games the same way as any other game.

Hope this helps...as you can tell, I like talking about this, so keep asking questions!
 

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Yeah those are all...slow day. If you can find Cinci for +110, go for it.
 
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I am on both, only put 150 on each lets cash atleast one. :toast: :money8: :money8: :party: :thumbsup2:
 

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