three tonight with analysis

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TEXAS –1.03 over Arizona
The D-Backs are in about as bad a funk as we’ve ever seen and hitting the road isn’t likely going to change much. Ever since Jason Grimsley started singing this group of Snakes are one out-of–focus bunch and it’s totally understandable. After all, a knock on the door can come at any time from guys wearing badges and windbreakers and the Diamondback players won’t have much choice but to provide some answers. You see, co-operating is better than Alcatraz and that makes people focus on other stuff besides baseball. It’s no coincidence that the Snakes went 1-9 since the incident and were outscored by an embarrassing 78-24. On Thursday, left fielder Luis Gonzalez called a press conference two hours before the game to clear his name after some allegations were starting to spread. Anyway, the point is the D-Backs are a team in serious turmoil and a team that is playing horrible because of it. They’re committing errors, they’re not hitting the ball, they’re losing easily and we’d be shocked to see them get right-sided against this offensive juggernaut. Play: Texas –1.03 (Risking 1.55 units to win 1.5).
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WASHINGTON +1.18 over NY Yankees
Yankees always bring some excitement to town and you can be sure that RFK will be rocking tonight and rocking all weekend long. Most of these fans have never seen the Yanks, thus, the atmosphere will be playoff like for the Nats while it will be just another three-game set for the Yankees. For the Yanks, it’ll be Jaret Wright, a guy that seldom goes more than five innings and a guy that’s been absolutely torched in his last three starts, although the numbers don’t reveal that. Against KC, Boston and Baltimore, Wright surrendered 26 hits in 16 innings and escaped jam after jam because balls were hit right at people. Wright has pitched for five different teams in the past five years and only once in nine years has he had a winning record. In five of his nine years of MLB service his ERA was over six. The opposition is hitting .302 against Wright and once again we find the Yankees overpriced. They’ve dropped five of seven and will face Shawn Hill here. Despite only making three starts Hill has not looked a bit out of place. His ERA is 1.80 and at RFK his ERA is 0.64. Hill has surrendered just 14 hits in 20 innings and has allowed just one bomb. Everyone on the home side from the players to the pitchers will be extra jacked-up for this series and the tag works for us. Play: Washington +1.18 (Risking 1.5 units).
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FLORIDA/Toronto under 9 +1.18
Scott Olsen comes in with a 5-3 record and a 5.10 ERA but those numbers are rather misleading. Olsen has been much better than that. Throw out two starts against St. Louis and Atlanta in which he was torched and the rookie lefty would have an ERA under three. Only once in his other eight starts did he allow more than three earned runs in a game. He’s durable, he’s gaining confidence and he’s been brilliant recently with three straight wins and an ERA of 2.18 over that stretch. He’s also struck out 50 in 60 innings. Ty Taubenheim is looking for is first win after starting the season 0-3. He’s struck out 15 in 19 innings and has allowed just one jack. Like Olsen, Taubenheim is gaining confidence too and the best part about this scenario is that both teams have never seen the opposing pitcher before and that can only help our chances. Both pitchers are much better than their ERA’s suggest and in a National League Park with National League rules we’re suggesting this one doesn’t come close to 10 runs. Play: Under 9 +1.18 (Risking 1.5 units).
 

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Hi Sherwood,
My only question on the Toronto under is how much of an impact that the Jays bats will have, they have absolutely crushed lefties all year and Olsen is pitching solid as of late, but does seem to be on the wild side, so if he gives up some BB's and gets behind in the count a lot he could be in trouble. Both temas are pretty good over teams as well. Thoughts?
 

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Being from Toronto and watching the Blue Jays quite often I'm aware of the good year at the plate they're having. However, numbers don't always tell the whole story and the Jays struggle big time against quality starters. They did so against the Tigers, they did so against Cabrera yesterday, they struggled big time in Colorado, especially against Francis, they struggled against Escobar and Santana of the Angels and if you look closely at Toronto you'll see that they've beaten up on a bunch of very average starters all year.

Olsen looks sharp, very sharp and in is last start he walked just one batter and struck out eight. Oh, and the Jays haven't absolutely crushed lefties all year, they're 12-8 thus far.

UNDER BABY!!
 

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sherwood said:
Oh, and the Jays haven't absolutely crushed lefties all year, they're 12-8 thus far.

Yes, they have .334 vs. lefties, Zaun .438 vs. Lefties, Wells .400 vs. lefties, Hillenbrand .379 vs. lefties, Rios .358 vs. lefties, Molina .349 vs. lefties, Glaus .345 vs. lefties, Hill .344 vs. lefties, Overbay even hits .283 vs. lefties. Pretty much every key player in there lineup destroys left handed pitching. Recently vs. lefties they crushed Loewen, did well vs. Robertson but Taubenheim got shelled, they tagged Loewen again before that, hit Bedard well but didn't get many key hits, before that they hit Hendrickson well twice. Win-loss has very little do with how well Toronto has hit lefties. They feature practically all right handed hitters and righties hit Olsen very well. You've been nailing some very interesting wagers lately so it wouldn't surprise me to see you nail this one. Good luck.
 

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I think the 6.25 RPG against Lefties is what he was referring to regarding "crushing" lefties.
 

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Exactly, they crushed Loewen (stiff) twice, Bedard (stiff), Hendrickson and a slew of other stiffs. Against Robertson, they had three hits through six innings and against Francis in Colorado, they were seeing BB's. They also lost to Steve Kazmir (scored twice), Mark Buehrle (scored twice), and the only noteworthy lefty they beat was Johan Santana in the first game of the year, oh, and The Big Unit, just like everyone else.

Don't get me wrong, I love the Jays, I live in Toronto but those batting averages don't tell the whole story. They scored against Robertson when the game was 8-2. I'll I'm saying is that the Jays struggle against quality pitchers and I trust they'll struggle tonight. I could be wrong but I don't think so.

Good luck everyone!!
 

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Nice work sherwood. Even the Nats game looked promising for awhile. If you go 2-1 every day you are making money.

Swallowed hard and bit on the Fla/Tor under after reading you analysis - you were dead on with that one.

GL and keep up the good work meng!
 

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sherwood said:
Exactly, they crushed Loewen (stiff) twice, Bedard (stiff), Hendrickson and a slew of other stiffs. Against Robertson, they had three hits through six innings and against Francis in Colorado, they were seeing BB's. They also lost to Steve Kazmir (scored twice), Mark Buehrle (scored twice), and the only noteworthy lefty they beat was Johan Santana in the first game of the year, oh, and The Big Unit, just like everyone else.

Don't get me wrong, I love the Jays, I live in Toronto but those batting averages don't tell the whole story. They scored against Robertson when the game was 8-2. I'll I'm saying is that the Jays struggle against quality pitchers and I trust they'll struggle tonight. I could be wrong but I don't think so.

Good luck everyone!!

Good call on the under wasn't really close. Your picks have been solid lately keep it up.
 

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