Capping the pen vs Capping the Starting pitcher

CHOPTALK · Jun 17, 2006

Anyone who says that this season is just like any other season is not studying there stats.

There are absolutly more blown leads this season than ever before. So instead of whinning about it all the time, we have to decide on how to adjust to these bullpens.

I use to use an 80/20 ratio, starter vs bullpen, but I am 100% certain that im going to have to adjust down to no less than 65/35, but thats only half the problem solved.

Here is my great dilema. I was wondering if anyone has in imput to maybe help my process along.

The problem is, its much more difficult to cap a bullpen than the starting pitcher.

Its real easy to cap a teams starter. He normally gets 4 to 5 days rest, the manager on the opposing team makes out his starting lineup based on the righty or lefty starter.

The hard part is capping the bullpen. Although you can usally get a pretty good idea who is going to pitch the 9th inning, you really dont know for a 100% fact who the manager is going to use in the dreaded 6th,7th and 8th inning for a 100% fact.

I know you can get an idea by checking whos been used alot, and a managers normal bullpen rotation, but there is no way to know for sure.

I am not going to put another dime of my money on another baseball bet until I can get some kind of system down with positive expectation when it comes to these pens It needs to be something systematic, so you can quickly cap the games and hit the overnight lines. Im sure there is something out there that can help out. Thats why I made this thread. You never know who may come in here with a brillant idea that I have never thought of yet.

PokerKingJim · Jun 17, 2006

I dont notice any more blown leads this year. What do the blown save numbers look like this year compared to years past?

CHOPTALK · Jun 17, 2006

Poker King Jim said:
I dont notice any more blown leads this year. What do the blown save numbers look like this year compared to years past?

Its not the blown saves in the 9th. Its the blown leads in the 7th and 8th. Middle relief is whats been different.

I can cap the starter and the closer. Its the pitcher in between thats the problem. I mentioned that in the thread.

thetout · Jun 17, 2006

why not just play bets on the first five innings. it seems the starting pitchers are lucky to give six innings. good luck

CHOPTALK · Jun 17, 2006

the tout said:
why not just play bets on the first five innings. it seems the starting pitchers are lucky to give six innings. good luck

I knew someone was going to bring that up.

I dont like the idea of a 5 inning bet one bit. Not enough sample to make a good bet. You need to have at least 2.5 rotations thru a batting order to get a true and legit bet IMO.

This is why I have been begging the sportsbooks to offer a 7inning line. Half my bankroll goes in the first book that offers this.

CaptainCarl · Jun 17, 2006

I think one of the reasons the relief pitching is doing so erratically this year is that the starting pitchers aren't going very deep into the game. The relief pitchers are coming in the 5th and 6th inning many times.
Take the Yankees, most of the starting pitchers are lucky to make it through the 6th inning. They rarely let Wright pitch into the 6th, Johnson gets shelled half the time and has only lasted past 5 innings in 5 of his 10 starts.

CHOPTALK · Jun 17, 2006

Captain Carl said:
I think one of the reasons the relief pitching is doing so erratically this year is that the starting pitchers aren't going very deep into the game. The relief pitchers are coming in the 5th and 6th inning many times.
Take the Yankees, most of the starting pitchers are lucky to make it through the 6th inning. They rarely let Wright pitch into the 6th, Johnson gets shelled half the time and has only lasted past 5 innings in 5 of his 10 starts.

You are 100% correct, and its only going to get worse as the season goes on. I made a thread at the beginning of the season on why I think this is happening and everyone laughed. But the proof is starting to pile up.

This thread
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=366212&highlight=steriods

and this post.

add another pitcher to the list of offenders.

When are people going to learn that its the pitchers that use this stuff more than the hitters.

Do you want to know why pitcher use steriods and HGH more than hitters?

Because they help pitchers more than hitters.

Recovery time is the biggest benifit of steriods. Recovery time is much more important for a pitcher than a hitter.

A first baseman can go out there and play 162 with no problem, but a relief pitcher that throws 70 to 80 games a year needs the recovery time more than any other player on the field.

I started a thread about this at the beginning of the season and everyone laughed at me.

Im being proved right more and more everyday.

This is why the bullpens have been so bad this season. Its only going to get worse as the season goes on.

BTW, its the middle relievers that cant afford the HGH, these are the ones thats been getting pounded this season. Thats why a lead in the 7th and 8th inning dont mean much anymore.

The ARODs and SOSA of the world can afford this stuff. The middle reliever making 119K per season cant.

The average cost of MLB grade HGH cost about $300 per day!!!!!! Thats almost 10 grand per month and 100K per year. The middle reliever cant afford that, thus they are getting bombed.

giorg0s · Jun 17, 2006

But yet baseball hasn't changed a bit in a year.
Why is it people always blame someone/something else for their failures?

plato · Jun 17, 2006

Chop, just some thoughts. I think over the last several years this dilemma has existed in baseball. Pitching has been diluted to the point where 3,4 and 5 starters on some teams would not have even made the majors 10 years ago, hence the bullpen plays an increasing role over that time in determining the winner.

I think using a 65/35 split is ok as a filter, but for the games that I want to take a closer look at (can't do all games would take too much time), I use the avg inn per start of the pitcher, then slide it up or down, depending on recent form and situations, then see how many innings I have left and factor in the bullpen accordingly.

With good pitchers this works best, but if I come down to only 5 innings, it can be an educated guess on who the first pitcher is off the bench. But if all still shows a better probability vs the line and there is value, the bet is placed. Also as you, each game is bet for different units depending on the value (if that theory was good enough for the computer group and the kosher kids, then who am I to argue). gl

Iceman · Jun 17, 2006

Poker King Jim said:
I dont notice any more blown leads this year. What do the blown save numbers look like this year compared to years past?

I agree somewhat. Though I have a seen an article on this and their are more blown leads than last year but with that being said it is no excuse. Chop is right he is empahasizing way too much on starting pitcher if he feel this way. Time to adjust.

For a guy like Poker King Jim, it looks like you dont put as much stock in starting pitching as most. I asked a similar question earlier in the year and was shocked and somewhat ridiculed for only making s.pitching 40% of my capping number. That is the way I have always did it.

CHOPTALK · Jun 17, 2006

Iceman said:
I agree somewhat. Though I have a seen an article on this and their are more blown leads than last year but with that being said it is no excuse. Chop is right he is empahasizing way too much on starting pitcher if he feel this way. Time to adjust.

For a guy like Poker King Jim, it looks like you dont put as much stock in starting pitching as most. I asked a similar question earlier in the year and was shocked and somewhat ridiculed for only making s.pitching 40% of my capping number. That is the way I have always did it.

Dont get me wrong ICEMAN.

The overall % of pitching as far as importance has not changed one bit.

Its still 70% pitching and 30% everything else.

My old 80/20 and my new 65/35ish has only to do with the pitching itself.

Overall value on power-ratings is still

70% PITCHING(65 STARTER and 35 PEN) Old numbers were (80 STARTER and 20 PEN)

20% OVERTEAM LINEUP (DEFFENSE AND HITTING)
5% HOMEFIELD
5% LAST 15 games HOT OR COLD

finite · Jun 17, 2006

I think its clear the difference is the absense of pick me up drugs. Next year it may stabilize. I personally just look at available relief pitching and their last 3 starts and just devalue season results.

JaRun · Jun 17, 2006

Personally, I use this in capping... It's been helpful...

http://sports.statesman.com/default.asp?c=statesman&page=mlb/stat/after-six-home-away.htm

guitarjosh · Jun 18, 2006

Chop what you might need to do is look at the relievers' stats over the past few years and compare it to this year. That can help you judge the riod testing effects for each person. I don't know if you can get average pitch speed anywhere, but other things like era might help.

HinesWard86 · Jun 18, 2006

plato said:
Chop, just some thoughts. I think over the last several years this dilemma has existed in baseball. Pitching has been diluted to the point where 3,4 and 5 starters on some teams would not have even made the majors 10 years ago, hence the bullpen plays an increasing role over that time in determining the winner.

I think using a 65/35 split is ok as a filter, but for the games that I want to take a closer look at (can't do all games would take too much time), I use the avg inn per start of the pitcher, then slide it up or down, depending on recent form and situations, then see how many innings I have left and factor in the bullpen accordingly.

With good pitchers this works best, but if I come down to only 5 innings, it can be an educated guess on who the first pitcher is off the bench. But if all still shows a better probability vs the line and there is value, the bet is placed. Also as you, each game is bet for different units depending on the value (if that theory was good enough for the computer group and the kosher kids, then who am I to argue). gl

Very sharp post.

Chop, why use 80/20? I don't cap baseball, but doesn't that mean that you assume that the average pitcher is pitching 7.1 Inning per start? Where did you get 80% from?

Budworth22 · Jun 18, 2006

Iceman said:
I agree somewhat. Though I have a seen an article on this and their are more blown leads than last year but with that being said it is no excuse. Chop is right he is empahasizing way too much on starting pitcher if he feel this way. Time to adjust.

For a guy like Poker King Jim, it looks like you dont put as much stock in starting pitching as most. I asked a similar question earlier in the year and was shocked and somewhat ridiculed for only making s.pitching 40% of my capping number. That is the way I have always did it.

Ice, assuming both teams are on a 1 game winning streak, playing at a neutral site, sp is an avg of 33% of my number.

Chop,
Unfortunately, relief pitching hasn't been worse. You're biased as the braves have been very poor, and that is the team you watch the most. Relief pitching is within the statistical norm, and it hasn't changed.

I rate offenses 3-6-9, bullpens 1-2-3, and starters 2-4-6. (higher # the better). An 80/20 split is a bit extreme.

CHOPTALK · Jun 18, 2006

HinesWard86 said:
Very sharp post.

Chop, why use 80/20? I don't cap baseball, but doesn't that mean that you assume that the average pitcher is pitching 7.1 Inning per start? Where did you get 80% from?

All I can tell you is that it worked for years.

Cant argue with success.

I agree that in todays times, 80/20 is too much.

Im going to use 65/35.

CHOPTALK · Jun 18, 2006

Budworth22 said:
Chop,
Unfortunately, relief pitching hasn't been worse. You're biased as the braves have been very poor, and that is the team you watch the most. Relief pitching is within the statistical norm, and it hasn't changed.

Bud its real late, but I have the stats to blow your comment totally out of the water.

I will post the stats right here tommorow.

The blown saves are not quite at historic highs, although its close. Its the middle relief that has been getting destroyed.

ERA is not the best factor to use.

HOLDS is a very key catagory.

Also the most simple stat of all. Blown leads after the 6th inning are way up this year. It was starting to trend that way in the 2nd half of last season, but its taken a new level this year.

PokerKingJim · Jun 18, 2006

Very observant iceman - I think starting pitching is way overrated when capping games. I love betting better offense/bullpen with a worse starter against a weaker team with a good starter such as Boston/Atlanta on Friday.

Iceman · Jun 18, 2006

the point is handicapping a temas hitting is WAY MORE accurate and consistent than some average inconsistent pitcher. That is why 65% is way too hig. In his eyes in means everything.

40% pitching
30 team offense
30 overall team (how good they are). Which seems to be lacking big time from chop's equation.

than add in home field