*NCAA Baseball - Omaha - SUNDAY*

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UF. Champion U.
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Still kickin ass and taking names in college bases. Speaking of kicking ass, kicking my own ass for not taking the Canes last night. I liked them +1.5 +126 as I mentioned numerous times, but there were too many questions with them, and I thought they answered some last night.

Part of the reason why I laid off last night, was because of the outstanding ard we have today. Big plays galore, and a Lock of the Millenium for tonight's game. (No guessing, let's keep late game discussion to a minimum). I'll post that play after game 1 so everyone can jump on board if interested. So look for a post from me around 5:00pm.

Nice, solid little play for today's game, let's do it.

5* Fullerton/Tech over 12.5
4* Fullerton/Tech over 13

(depends on which line you get)

Write-up in 5.
 

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Fullerton off that tough game with North Carolina used up their two aces: Roemer and Gagnier. Those two are in a league of their own, and now they must go to Dustin Miller, their #3, who has been absolutely solid this year, but he's not on the same level as Roemer, or Gagnier. Miller is not a strike out guy, he's not going to go up there and dominate and he's going to try to get groundballs and weak fly balls and have the hitters get themselves out. That won't work vs. Georgia Tech, who swings very aggressive bats, and they can score 4 runs at any moment. You need to keep Tech off balance like Clemson did, and hold them in check, and I'm not confident in Miller's ability to do that. Furthermore, Fullerton has a weak bullpen, especially after losing their closer to injury earlier this year, and nothing screamed that more than Fullerton going to Gagnier, their #2 starter, in relief for the extra innings. They had no confidence in their bullpen, and either do I.

On the flip side, Tech starts their ace Blake Wood, who is another guy with dominant stuff, but hasnt shown it all year. He's been inconsistent, like the rest of the Tech staff. Wood has that ERA over 4.00, and opponents are batting .292 against him with 128 hits in 109 innings pitched. Fullerton is a team that won't go quietly in this thing, and I think you'll see them put a ton of pressure on this shaky Tech defense that ranks last in fielding pct in Omaha. You saw the kind of meltdown that Tech is capable of, giving up 8 in 1 inning to Clemson, and I wouldnt be surprised to see something similiar with all of the pressure that Fullerton will put on them with bunting, etc. We also saw Tech's bullpen blow up vs. Clemson, and I'd love to see Fullerton get into that Tech bullpen quick.

Overall, both starters are solid, but nothing special. Both bullpens are shaky. Tech's defense is brutal. Techs hitting is outstanding. Fullerton wont go down without a serious fight, and I see them out-scoring Tech today. All of the ingredients for the over recipe.

Back later.
 

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good luck today have not play any college bb so far but im going with you on this one.gl.ck
 

SSI

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good luck on the first one today, im on tech, so i hope they outscore them.

as for the 2nd game, im assuming that we are on opposite sides, and ill leave it--at that...
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Slaya I think you will have a BIG play later is that correct?

Good Luck:pope:
 

UF. Champion U.
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good luck, ck, 1st impression is most important, i hope i can pay you back for some of the baseball money you have won me on this first game for you

ssi - .......good luck........

pimple, post #1...Lock of Millenium for tonight, as well as another big play....dont really want to go into details....lines will start moving... 5:00pm

Let's get this first one in the books, and start it off right. Good luck
 

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Change of plans, I may have something to do around 5pm, so I will be posting tonight's plays in 30 mins. Write ups right now.
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Holy crap Rice may start St. Clair tomorrow against Miami. :dancefool :dancefool


You know whicha side I like in dat one. Could be my favorite play of the entire World Series. I definitely have to know the starting pitching matchup in this one. Look into this one for me.

Pope what do you think? :pope:
 

mws

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Good stuff. Will look for that play on tonight's game.

Good luck.
 

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10* Clemson/UNC over 11.5 (Lock of Millenium)
5* Clemson -165
2* Clemson -1.5 +109

First of all, relax. I'm not a fortune-teller. I don't have a crystal ball, and there are no guarantees. I'm just a guy who knows the game playing percentages. And percentages and analysis and more is telling me that 9 times out of 10 this matchup goes over the total, and 7 times out of 10, Clemson wins this baseball game tonight. I'm up over 65 units in this post-season of college ball and I'm putting roughly 20 of them at risk on this game. Even if all of these plays lose tonight, and we have a terrible night, you should still be up big around 40 units for college ball. If you havn't been following along with all of my plays, I suggest lowering your unit amount. Clemson side should be played about half of the Clemson total, IMO. And a small stab on that runline, because I don't think we've seen any 1-run games in awhile. Please bet within your limits, anything can lose. I have no inside information, the game is not fixed, and Skip Bertman didnt visit me in my dreams last night.

Let's write this thing up.

Clemson with a major advantage at starting pitching tonight, IMO, AND bullpen. Clemson also with a nice defensive advantage as North Carolina is the 2nd most erratic defense behind GA Tech in this thing. North Carolina is capable of blowing up like Tech's 8 run 8th at any moment with their pen and defense. Both teams with outstanding offense that needs good pitchers to hold them down.

Clemson has won 25 of their past 26 games, and I don't see that slowing down tonight. Plus, this team has heart, and they have a "we can't lose" mentality. They battled back with a bottom of 9 grand slam in the supers to win it, and they battled back down 4-0 in the 8th.

Now, Clemson as I mentioned in the past has solid starters, but not dominant starters. Faris, is one of those. Faris and Cribb are Clemson's "aces", ace1a and ace 1b. Neither are dominant. Faris goes tonight. RHP. Throws 3 good pitches, but no overpowering fastball. North Carolina should have an easier time with Faris after facing a guy like Roemer. I was impressed with NC's offense after putting up runs so fast on Roemer. And I think they'll be able to put up at least 4-6 runs tonight on Clemson. I think Clemson will be able to put up 7+. Woodard is nothing special, and UNCs pen gets even worse outside of their closer Carginan.

Faris is better than his opposition though. North Carolina starts Woodard, sort of by default because of how bad Bard can be. Woodard is steady, but nothing special. He's not going to walk people, he throws strikes, nothing over-powering. They have Andrew Miller #1 pick, and then it's up for grabs. They have Bard and Woodard behind Miller, Bard was a 1st rounder, but he's so erratic they dont even want to pitch him, and they gave the steady Woodard the nod.

Woodard 6-1, 3.48 ERA, 95 IP, 98 hits, opp bat .267 off him. Clemson isnt your average offense.
Important stat about Woodard: only 47 K's in 95 IP. He's not striking guys out. That might be ok for some guys in the bigs, but with the metal bats, you need to miss barrels and get critical strikeouts when you are in these bases loaded no out jams. Woodard relies too much on hitters getting themselves out, and Clemson is an offense where if they put the bat on the ball, they sting it hard.

Woodard doesnt have a good defense behind him. UNC makes 2-4 errors a game. And if you have a guy like Woodard who relies on defense, it can get ugly.

Now, I thought UNC played the game of their life the other night, holding Fullerton in check throughout that game. And I really dont think they can pull that off two games in a row. Also, you have an UNC team that played the late-game, went deep into extra innings, and on the flip side you have a well-rested Clemson team that played the day-game, and is focused, rested and ready to go. Is UNC happy just to get by Fullerton in that extra inning marathon?

Clemson is the better team here, they have won their last 25 of 26 for a reason, they are the higher national seed, with the better pitcher, better defense, and better bullpen.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Yep. They are starting.

Also worth mentioning. "Lock of Millenium" range from 10*-15*. This is a 10*. Just FYI
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Love it Slaya!!!


I really like the Clemson side too. Clemson has so much team speed and when you have that they put a lot of pressure on a defense. Now thats with good defenses too. Add the fact that UNC has the worst defense out of the entire field, and you got a team in Clemson that could be given some runs.

Excerpt from an artcile written by Bryan Smith
Largest Weakness of North Carolina: Inconsistency. And a lot of it. The Tar Heels may be the team most prone to concentration lapses in Omaha; their 86 errors are good for second in the tournament. Horton is the culprit of 23 himself, and problems in the middle infield showed in Fayetteville. The staff also has problems with consistency, and Bard is a good example of that. In the second game of the super regional, head coach Mike Fox pulled the first round arm quickly, when it became apparent it wasn't one of his good days. None of those things can happen against teams like Fullerton or Clemson, so UNC must be on their best behavior.
 

UF. Champion U.
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who the hell is bryan smith

inconsistency alright. they can look awesome v. fullerton, and then crap their pants vs. clemson...thats what im banking on..lots of big run innings for both sides. UNC has good team speed too, and they rake. Clemson rakes. Both pitchers are "oh please get yourself out for me" pitchers with no dominant stuff. Faris tries to sneak the fastball by you. He'll be upper 80's. Woodard is the same. Both teams will put lots of balls in play, and thats dangerous with that UNC defense that makes you cringe everytime a ball is hit.
 

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my projected lines were:

CSF -219
GTech 12 o/u

Clemson -143
UNC 10 o/u

those are computer projected lines, not intuitive guesses.

the only value i saw today was the 'under' in the clemson game. after seeing your 'lock' on the 'over' i probably would of just avoided the total all together, but i'm stuck with the 'under' 11.5 at +110...GL today anyway. :103631605
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Boxslayer32 said:
who the hell is bryan smith

inconsistency alright. they can look awesome v. fullerton, and then crap their pants vs. clemson...thats what im banking on..lots of big run innings for both sides. UNC has good team speed too, and they rake. Clemson rakes. Both pitchers are "oh please get yourself out for me" pitchers with no dominant stuff. Faris tries to sneak the fastball by you. He'll be upper 80's. Woodard is the same. Both teams will put lots of balls in play, and thats dangerous with that UNC defense that makes you cringe everytime a ball is hit.

Im Bryan Smith E-S-P-N. :pope:
 

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Li%20Grundel.jpg


Li Grundel LOVES Clemson tonight!!!

She is 5-0 in the CWS.:pope:
 

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well getting on that Tech line late hurt me. It opened at 12, I got it at 12.5, and they score 12. No errors in that game? Wow, I expect no errors from Fullerton, but not Tech. I did expect the infamous Tech choke job though. Wow those fockers choke every year. Incredible. Started off on a bad foot, but I think we're in store for an exciting high scoring back and forth game tonight, pulled off by the Clemson Tigers.

Maybe this daddy can play out to plan, get this over by the 6th inning, and we can watch the Heat with no worries.
 

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damnit didn't this thread till now Box, the line is 12.5 at Pinny now, you think I should take it still?
 

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