The easiest way to look at this sort of market is to look at the Asian handicap line and convert across. The total will of course make a difference but this can give you a pretty good idea.
A game where the teams are evenly matched might be bet like this (to 100%):
Team A 3.00
Tie 3.00
Team B 3.00
On the Asian handicap they will bet this as 0 : 0 (ie level ball) 2.00 2.00 (to 100% again).
By giving one team a 1/2 goal start on the Asian handicap, you are essentially taking the tie out of the equation. So the game will be bet as 0 : 1/2 2.00 2.00 (to 100% again).
So, taking this back to the fixed odds, you have:
Team A (to win or draw) 2.00
Team B (to win) 2.00
So, essentially, you are going from a 33% chance of winning to a 50% chance of winning for the change from being evenly matched to having a 1/2 goal difference.
I think I've got that right. It's a bit early in the morning and I'm trying to watch Ukraine at the same time too.
A game where the teams are evenly matched might be bet like this (to 100%):
Team A 3.00
Tie 3.00
Team B 3.00
On the Asian handicap they will bet this as 0 : 0 (ie level ball) 2.00 2.00 (to 100% again).
By giving one team a 1/2 goal start on the Asian handicap, you are essentially taking the tie out of the equation. So the game will be bet as 0 : 1/2 2.00 2.00 (to 100% again).
So, taking this back to the fixed odds, you have:
Team A (to win or draw) 2.00
Team B (to win) 2.00
So, essentially, you are going from a 33% chance of winning to a 50% chance of winning for the change from being evenly matched to having a 1/2 goal difference.
I think I've got that right. It's a bit early in the morning and I'm trying to watch Ukraine at the same time too.
generally speaking 30-40 cents per quarter ball. So a half ball is 75 cents or so. The further up or down you go it increases even more. Also getting to a pk or -1, -2 or any number that it can land on flush is worth more, especially to the pk.
ie. -.25 down to pk is worth a ton more then 30-40 cents.
Also depends on the total.
ie. -.25 down to pk is worth a ton more then 30-40 cents.
Also depends on the total.
I've just run the Asian handicap stats from the last English Premier League season using the lines we had on BetUK.com (12 point lines) and a half goal was on average worth 42 cents.
But it is crucial to look at the over/under 2.5 goals market as it makes a huge difference.
Personally I think the 1/4 goal and 3/4 goal markets offer the best value to the soccer bettor vs the three-way European standard.
But it is crucial to look at the over/under 2.5 goals market as it makes a huge difference.
Personally I think the 1/4 goal and 3/4 goal markets offer the best value to the soccer bettor vs the three-way European standard.
It's difficult to say since World Cups vary between years. In baseball and football and basketball it's a lot easier to figure the value of points since you typically use historical data. One gripe I've always had with people using value on points is that they don't adjust for the total. If you have a lower total your points are worth a different amount than a game with a higher total. Also, team totals vary so much between teams.
In soccer we're talking about a large percentage of the score here and a large standard deviation between matches and teams. In basketball if you ask how much 3 points are worth you're talking about 3% of the team total. In soccer, 1/2 point could mean 50% of the team total if you have a combined total of 2. If a team gets lucky and scores a fluke goal your "value" gets thrown out the window because 25%-50% of the total has been changed.
In soccer we're talking about a large percentage of the score here and a large standard deviation between matches and teams. In basketball if you ask how much 3 points are worth you're talking about 3% of the team total. In soccer, 1/2 point could mean 50% of the team total if you have a combined total of 2. If a team gets lucky and scores a fluke goal your "value" gets thrown out the window because 25%-50% of the total has been changed.
winbet said:I have a mean of 11% for a Goal. So a Goal is calculated at 11% of the original price to factor in bias of the favourite. In play the original Percentage price can be divided by 90 to give a sliding scale, then subtract or minus the 11% at any time.
But goals are not normally distributed throughout the match. Specifically there's more scoring in the second half than the first.
this is it, asian handicap is a way to limit the possible outcomes from three (1 x 2) to just two (team A, team B).billnevin said:
In fact to every odds it corresponds a different handicap that sets the difference in terms of percentage of the two teams.
Usually odds around 1.4-1.6 for team A has the AH set at -1 for team A and obviously + 1 team B.
1.6-1.75 -> -0.75/+0.75AH
1.8-2 -> -0.5/+0.5AH
2-2.3 -> -0.25 / +0.25AH
2.4-2.6 -> dnb or 0 AH
The biggest betting soccer market is in Asia and there it's used this way of betting with really high limits and good odds (1.96-1.96 approximately).
beetman said:
I'm afraid Im not very good at explaining Maths. Yes your statement is statistically right but the problem is in these sort of questions is you have to nail down your opinion on the bet. My approach will be different depending on wether I am laying or betting, getting into discussions about bell curves only blurs the important thing, which is your initial H'capping of the M/L Match or Event . Laying Even Shots at 6/4 or betting 6/4 shots at Evens will put you in the poor house regardless of ones matmatical skills.
The original Question was what is Half a Goal worth. 1/2 a Goal is the same as betting the Draw in 3 way bets so it would be pretty silly for a Book to lay a different price on a H'cap. 1/2 Goal effectively equals 1 Goal, which is 22% of the M/L price. However, the Total Goal Price will affect the price and because the average score is about 2.5 very rarely do Books bet 1/2 goal either way of that. That means there's a 11% spread out depending on the Total. So hopefully this makes sense.
M/L price =Evens= 50%
1/2goal=1 goal=22% of 50%=60%
60% = US odds -150
If The WC average goals a game is 2.5 goals then that is the mean for 50 cents. 1/2 goal either way = total goals from 2 to 3
Total Goals 2 75 cents
Total Goals 3 30 cents
I said I'm no teacher.
ucking:
