*NCAA Baseball - Omaha - Monday*

Search

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
One of our first real disappointing, losing days in awhile. Looking to bounceback big today. As I said, the play below was considered to be a huge play before the games took place yesterday, this isnt a tilt play from yesterday or anything like that. Let's cash this ticket and get back to bankroll building.

10* Rice -226
or
10* Rice -1.5 -126 (you pick what kind of juice you want to lay)
4* Rice/Miami under 13

Me and Pimple hammered that line at -196, and it went flying.

The buck stops here for this Hurricanes team who has played red-hot baseball this tourney. They are a young team, that is under-sized, scrappy and speedy, and hitting the crap out of the ball right now. I didn't give them much credit for their hitting because they went through Manhattan and San Fran, then a weak Ole Miss pitching staff, and they finally put together a good quality win vs. Oregon State's ace 1b Dallas Buck. Watching that game, I was trying to determine if the Canes were for real, and I don't think they are. It became more and more evident to me that this Hurricanes team rips the crap out of upper 80's pitching. Buck isnt a dominant starter, as I mentioned in my writeup on him, and he is the Derek Lowe-type, relying on that power sinker to get groundball outs. And when I watched that game vs. Miami, it was not on. Buck isn't particularly "large" and he can't create that good downward plane vs. these short scrappy Miami hitters.

You keep hearing this isnt the Miami powerhouse of year's past and there's a reason for that. These guys don't have the big time guy like Pat Burrell at the plate. They don't have Ryan Braun, they dont have Kevin Howard. They have some smaller, younger, inexperienced freshmen and sophomores that are in for a real treat tonight.

Every key hitter in this Hurricanes lineup is a lefty. And they won't face a much better lefty than the one going tonight for Rice, in another fantastic decision that turned this play from a 6* play, to the 10* it is now.

Rice will start closer Cole St. Clair tonight. Cole St. Clair is a big dominant left-hander that wants to be a starting pitcher, has the stuff to be a starting pitcher and was left in the bullpen before the emergence of Bryce Cox. As you saw Cox in Rice's last game, this guy is consistently 95 MPH and absolutely lights out. Now, St. Clair can step into the role he has always wanted: starting pitcher. His stamina is not a concern. He's big, he throws strikes, and he can handle the load. In supers vs. Oklahoma, Rice brought him in the 1st inning to stop the bleeding, and he continued to pitch wonderfully throughout the game.

The reason why I like this St. Clair matchup vs. the Miami hitters is not only because every key out in the Miami lineup is a lefty, and St. Clair owns the lefty on lefty matchup. St. Clair is big and dominant, something UM hasnt seen yet. St. Clair isnt going to rely on a Dallas Buck sinker to get groundballs, and he's on a completely different level than anyone they have faced in a long time. St. Clair is a big left hander that will run it in the mid 90's, creating that downward plane from his 6'5" 225 pound frame. He will go right at and challenge this undersized Miami lineup, and try to over power them, and I think he will be able to. St. Clair has no mental issues, no crapping down his leg, he's been a closer all year and been thrown i9nto tight games, and has responded with a 6-2 record 1.95 ERA, and opponents batting .144 against him. .144!!!!!! 69IP 94, strikeouts!

He'll be matched up with Danny Gil, who absolutely shut down those hot Ole Miss bats in Mississippi. Gil relies on one pitch, like Tim Wakefiled: He relies on this nasty split-finger that gets almost knuckleball action. He used it to slow down those aggressive Ole Miss bats. But, in his 4 years at Miami, I have never seen him put together back to back games with that split finger and be dominant. The other thing is I think this Rice lineup has better hitters than the Ole Miss lineup. Rice has battled back from being down runs, they get the timely clutch hit, and they can run the score up. We havn't seen these Miami guys fall behind 1st in a game yet, and I want to see how they respond if they go down to Rice. Will the young guys fold?

Finally, bullpen. Miami's is terrible outside of Chris Perez, but he's only a closer. They will need another 8 inning effort from Gil tonight vs. a very good Rice lineup, and I dont see that happening. Miamis glaring weakness is bullpen, and Rices strength is bullpen. After St. Clair, Rice can come back to Bryce Cox, who will continue to run mid 90's fastballs at Miami.

Tradition. It takes tradition to slow down tradition. If that makes any sense. Miami stole it from Ole Miss in Ole Miss, who hasnt been to Omaha since the 60's. Miami beat up on Oregon State, who never makes any post-season noise, never goes to Omaha, and is looking to go 2 and out both years that they do. And now they face a Rice team, with tremendous tradition, post-season experience, recent National Titles, etc.

Overall, this is just a great play and a bad spot for the Hurricanes who should run into a buzz saw tonight that is the Rice pitching staff.
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
Box, appreciate your writeups, you'll bounce back today.. I find myself on Ga (+2.00) today, any thoughts on this one..
 

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
Oregon State with a huge starting pitching advantage. Georgia will probably go lefty senior Westphal. Just average. OSU counters with ace Jonah Nickerson, who is their real ace. They havnt used Gunderson out of the pen their ace lefty reliever. Tough spot for the Bulldogs. The one advantage they have is hitting over OSU, who can't hit. But, they might be okay vs. Westphal, who like I said is average. Both teams play solid defense, etc. So, probably value with the dog, but it's equivalent to Brandon Webb, vs. Paul Byrd. I'm laying off the early one. Good luck!
 

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
Tokens
The one thing Miami has going for them against a lefthander is that 2b Weeks will be batting from the right side. As a righty, he crushed 3 home runs against Ole Miss. Your write-up, however, as usual, is right on.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,508
Tokens
savannah slim said:
10*...does it get any better than that?


holy moly, nice write up! :103631605

Oh it gets better. He's had 15* plays he's easily cashed this season.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 31, 2006
Messages
1,740
Tokens
hey box,

do you know if Roemer is starting for CSF tomorrow? where do you get the listed starting pitchers?

here are the computer projections for today's games (they helped me nail the 'under' in yesterday's unc/clem game):

OrSt -173
GA 11.77 o/u

Mia 11.86 o/u
Rice -207

GL with your plays today.
 

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
skins - you rock, *muahz*

NYReb - thanks again

savannah - they go as high as 15*. i feel strongly about this one. as you saw yesterday, no guarantees. dont bet anything you will regret losing.

bennyshoe - looking to get that money back from yesterday, hopefully i can apologize for yesterday and get some of those winnings back

bzn - thanks for posting the projections. i'm not a big cpu sim guy or systems guy. but every little bit helps. these college games can get wacky and dont always go to script. i feel you have to understand why a team has a breakdown, who chokes, who knows how to get it done, who has the baseball advantages, how do the pitcher's matchup with the style of the hitters, etc. that being said, congrats on the under yesterday. i'm glad somebody won around here. clemson getting shut out by woodard just came as a complete shock to me. Miller and Roemer give up bombs, and 5 a piece, and Woodard and Faris throw gems. Who would of thought? I need to get better or "sharper". I missed something there. thats why they play the games. as for tomorrow's pitcher, i'd GUESS Gagnier. He threw less than Roemer I think. I'd have to check. Sometimes the athletic websites will announce who is starting. sometimes you can figure out who is starting from teams message board chatter. lots of family members of the players on those boards that reveal the "inside scoop". i also get about 20 phone calls a day from people that are in "the circle" that i talk to on a regular basis about baseball, scouting, sports, whatever. i hear chatter from them. good luck today
 

Professional At All Times
Joined
Dec 3, 2003
Messages
42,732
Tokens
Box:

Excellent write-up as usual. Just a couple of questions. Has Cole St. Clair ever started before and, if he has, how has he done? Which team will hit in the bottom half of the inning?
 

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
I believe Rice is the home team. It usually has gone by seeding and Rice is a national seed, while Miami wasnt even a #1 seed in a regional, they were #3. I'll double check that now.

St. Clair has started once. He's done "long relief" more and more as the season progressed. He went 5 vs. Oklahoma when he came in the 1st , and gave up 3 runs I believe. He started once to build up stamina a few weeks ago and he went 3IP 3 hits 0 runs. He wants to be a starter, they just had no one to anchor their staff in the pen. Now, they have Bryce Cox who has been outstanding. They also have plenty of other relievers. St. Clair has starter stuff, throws three good pitches.

He's a big guy that has gotten his pitch count up in games, and he can handle the load, IMO. And even if he only goes 5 strong, Rice has an outstanding pen to turn it over to. Hurricanes on the other hand, do not. They will need an outstanding outing from Danny Gil, and he should definitely keep UM in this game, but he's a smaller guy, a 1 pitch guy, that has also been a closer all year. If his split finger isnt working today, he'll be out by the 4th or 5th inning.

I think starting St. Clair is more of trying to take momentum away from Miami. Bring him in the front of the game, instead of the back of the game. Dont let Miami come out and score 3 in the 1st and give them that confidence, cockiness, and swagger. Shut them down through 4 or 5, make their bats go quiet, build up a lead and take these freshmen out of the game.

The last few weeks have lead to this start. He has been coming in earlier and earlier in the game each week that passes, and going longer and longer in games. The way that I looked at this start, is that Rice is anchoring the front end of the game, and the back end of the game. They want to get off to a good start, and finish it. The middle innings, 4,5,6 will be Miami's main opportunity to score. St. Clair should have about 80-90 pitches in him before he gets pulled, IMO. And that should be good enough for 5 or 6 innings. Then they can turn it over to McDaniel, Bell or Crow for 1 or 2 innings. Ad then have Bryce Cox close it. With Cox in the bullpen, this is a 7 inning game for Miami, and with St. Clair in the front of the game, he should shut them down through 3 at least. So Miami will have to beat these Rice bats through 4 innings of scoring.

As good as Perez is in Miami's pen, he can be rattled, he can give up hits. He almost blew it in Ole Miss.

Another thing I didnt mention about St. Clair is he is a left-hander, and supposively has a great pick off move to 1st base. But, good pick off move or not, you need to have that left-handed presence on the mound to stop the Hurricanes from doing what they like to do, and thats steal bases.

Miami also likes to bunt, and I love having a closer on the mound in this situation. College baseball teams start and end their bunt defense practice with the closer, because that is when bunting takes place, end of games, important 1 run situations. Closers in college can handle the bunt better than anyone on the team.

I am comfortable having a left-hander on the mound to stall the Miami ground game, a left-hander on the mound to slow down these Miami lefty hitters, and a power pitcher on the mound to over-power these smalller Miami hitters. I dont think these freshmen have seen a guy like St. Clair yet.

I've been wrong before, but I really like the play.
 

Professional At All Times
Joined
Dec 3, 2003
Messages
42,732
Tokens
Box:

Thank you for the detailed explanation. Well, my young friend, I have confidence in you and last night was sweet with the Heat ML win. So let's bring this one in today.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=report-title>Straight Wager Report: Unsettled </TD><TD class=headline vAlign=bottom align=right>Generated: Mon Jun 19, 17:58 EDT 2006 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=report-table colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><HR width="100%" color=#999999 SIZE=1><TR class=report-table-row><TD>06/19/2006 17:53:09 <TD>Wagered $2400.00 to win $1000.00 on RICE <TD>Unsettled <TR class=report-table-row><TD>CB 15 6/19 <TD>MIAMI FLORIDA AT RICE <TD> <TR><TD colSpan=3><HR width="100%" color=#999999 SIZE=1><TR class=report-table-row><TD>06/19/2006 17:46:16 <TD>Wagered $2400.00 to win $1000.00 on RICE <TD>Unsettled <TR class=report-table-row><TD>CB 15 6/19 <TD>MIAMI FLORIDA AT RICE </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
oldmanTED said:
Box:

Thank you for the detailed explanation. Well, my young friend, I have confidence in you and last night was sweet with the Heat ML win. So let's bring this one in today.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=report-title>Straight Wager Report: Unsettled </TD><TD class=headline vAlign=bottom align=right>Generated: Mon Jun 19, 17:58 EDT 2006 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=report-table colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><HR width="100%" color=#999999 SIZE=1><TR class=report-table-row><TD>06/19/2006 17:53:09 <TD>Wagered $2400.00 to win $1000.00 on RICE <TD>Unsettled <TR class=report-table-row><TD>CB 15 6/19 <TD>MIAMI FLORIDA AT RICE <TD><TR><TD colSpan=3><HR width="100%" color=#999999 SIZE=1><TR class=report-table-row><TD>06/19/2006 17:46:16 <TD>Wagered $2400.00 to win $1000.00 on RICE <TD>Unsettled <TR class=report-table-row><TD>CB 15 6/19 <TD>MIAMI FLORIDA AT RICE </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:pope: I wish I had your bankroll.

I hope I can pull this one off for you, I owe you a few winners throughout the years. Good karma coming your way.

Let's do it!
 

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
Couple of things to note as the big game approaches:

Jim Morris has shaken up his hot-hitting lineup taking his RF out of the lineup, moving his DH to RF, and bringing in a guy off the bench to start at DH to match up with the left-handed St. Clair.

Shaking up the hot-hitting lineup? I love it.

Morris will bench Blake Tekkote. Tekotte is also a stolen base threat stealing 10/16 on the year.
He inserts Gus Menendez who is .294, 1 HR, 1 stolen base

Tekotte was 2-4 last game with a run scored.

Even with the switch Miami still sends 4 left-handed hitters to the dish, and turns around switch hitters Weeks and Roger Tomas. Weeks has been solid from the right-side of the plate, and Tomas is really known for his defensive infield skills and not for his hitting. .301/0/16 on the year...3/4 stolen bases.

Miami's key hitters are lefties:

1. Jon Jay, Team USA, Best Player - .369/6/42 (31 of 37 bags)
2. Tommy Giles, 2nd best hitter - .339/9/42 (11 of 16 bags)
3. Yonder Alonso, best power hitter/low avg. - .296/10/69
4. Dennis Raben, HR last game, .286/6/27

Miami's starter Danny Gil:

4 starts this year. It all depends on how his split finger is ala Wakefiled with his knuckleball. He lives and dies with it. Doesnt throw hard enough to blow it by anybody.

Notes:
Rice has won 38 of 41 dating back to early March
Rice was the 2003 National Champs
Rice has a 56-11 record
 

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
Tokens
When Ted has faith in a play, he moves.

Ahead 2-0 is good.
 

UF. Champion U.
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Messages
12,281
Tokens
anybody watching this game?

Rice's typically stellar defense has screwed up 2 Taylor Made double play balls, and Miami has pulled within 1.

Now, I'm very confident in this Rice team with Bryce Cox now on the mound to close it. He needs to go 2 innings vs. Miamis 5,6,7,8,9,1 hitters and hes got his A Game throwing that slider nasty and 95mph fastball.

3-2 Rice top of 8 ....miami gets both runs on a botched double play balls
 
Joined
Jan 19, 2006
Messages
30,208
Tokens
Good Luck bro!! I am rooting for ya. I need the Giants tonight do you
like em? Always appreciate your input. Hope you win
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,281
Messages
13,450,223
Members
99,404
Latest member
byen17188
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com