lets talk about the games: June 20th

you want a write up for a game, which one. want to know about a pitcher or player, lets hear it. any game thoughts people have that may give us an advantage on a side.

this is supposed to be a real and professional capping site, lets see who knows what and see what we can figure out in terms of values for tomorrow. I will write up or talk on any game with anyone. lets see if w can get some wins as a forum and not all this BS. lets help find wins and keep the other shit in the rubber room.

we have about 3 months left of baseball and we need to build our bankrolls for the end of summer vacation and the NFL. lets do so and see what we can come up with. we all have our own views and styles.

I will answer any question on anything here....about my plays, your plays, any game. some want write ups well just name the game. if there is a demand for such info and sharing then we can continue, otherwise we wil just let it go. but im willing to help anyone here at therx as much as i can and as long as the season continues. winning, laughs, good times...thats all the matters. lets focus on the winning and laugh after we smash it on tuesday

there are some here i see that know the game well, hope to get some good thoughts kicked around in this thread. maybe something we can do prior to the games each day as a source of info for the forums.



:money:

Red@Met

Mets should pound Ramirez as he has not been all that impressive, although he did throw a gem last time out vs Milwaukee. Can't picture him shutting down a potent Mets lineup like that, but not sure I have any faith in Trachsel either. Possible assplays: Mets -129, Mets -1.5 +164, Over 9.5 +102


Marlin@Orioles

Really like the way this young Florida team has developed and starting to come on. Aggressive, young and scrappy and a good coach. I think Willis might even be there worst starter, thats saying something. Fan of DCab, but guy needs to cut down on walks. Like O's offense also. When they're on they are on. Would like to be at this game or watch it on TV, but no good. Possible assplays: Pass


Cub@Indian

Other than last night Cubs offense has struggled. Would not be surprised to see Lee throw a gem, but at the same time Maddux could as well. Think Lee has a better shot of dominating more so than Maddux as Cleveland has some pop and Cubs don't. Plus Tribe don't want to look like squares in front of the home crowd dropping 2 in a row to a shit team. Possible assplays: Cleveland -1.5 +123


Warshington@Boston

Strange game as you never know what you're gonna get with these two starters. Both capable of throwing a gem, both capable of getting lit. Who knows, to much of a gamble. Possible assplays: Pass


Yankee@Phillie

Game phvckin wreeks, pass.


DBack@DRay

DB comes before DR so actually this may be where the smart money goes. Look for the syndicates to pound that right around before game time, maybe in the morning though. Have to look up Zona's notes and see how they are doing vs lefties as Hendy just rolled threw Tiger lineup last start. Possible assplay: Arizona +111


Jay@Brave

Towers returns to the bigs, nice. This guy was a nice fade and auto over bet, but the Braves offense, besides last night, has basically looked non-existant. Sosa has looked like a gas can for the most part with the one or two expectional starts. Possible assplays: Over 10.5 +104


Twin@Stro

Stank.


Pad@Ranger

Yuck.


Bird@Sock

Mulder has been inconsistent so far, but so has Vaz. Either of them can throw a gem or get burned seems like. Kinda thinking about taking a shot with Mulder here as a road dog because the lock would probably be el socko. Possible assplays: St Louis +143

Pirate@Royal

Shit game.


A@Rock

No thanks.


Mariner@Dodger

Purchased a half ounce of magic mushrooms off some shaman that lived downtown Seattle back in '98. Man...


Angel@***

Passaroni.


Possible assplays recap:

Mets -129
Mets -1.5 +164
Cleveland -1.5 +123
Arizona +111
Toronto/Atlanta Over 10.5 +104
St Louis +143


Bring some analysis of wisdom and knowledge to the table. Not sure if these will be official plays or not until around noon, if so, a card will be posted, if not, considering a 10k bet on the Dallas ML...thats right, 10K on the Mav's ML Game 6, fvck minus 6.

Thought's?

mofome,

Two games I'd like your opinion on.

Do you think the super high
era's of both towers and Sosa combined make a great case for the over 10? Or will the fact that both pitchers have won only one game each make you think there won't be enough hitting to help the over?

Also, do you think Penny's winner of 7 with an era of 2.49 against Pineiro's loser of 7 wiith an era 5.42 are reasons enough to lay the 1.5 runs at +115 to avoid the unacceptable -184 ?

Or are they not good plays and I should pass.


Thank you for your response.

Very best of good luck to you.

as far as the specific questions you have asked.

Atl has a young lineup and they have some guys that are very free swinginers. Sps with a sharp slider will give them trouble and pitchers who know how to make young hitters expand the zone give them trouble. that being said, Josh towers is a control pitcher without a any dominating pitch, much less one that will make you chase. ATl has some good real good bats and a lot of guys with pop. Towers, pitching to contact, will allow the braves to get on the board and test the fairly slow infield of the jays. the youth in the braves lineup is better than what Tor will be throwing on then hill tomorrow. and should towers get in trouble they go to chulk and hes been brutal this year. I like atl to take care of their side of the total.
on the other side yuo have the jays bats vs sosa. in each of sosa's last 3 games hes had a WHIP over 1.50 and thats without walking a lot of guys; he is just being knocked around. The jays have much more discipline at the plate than ATL and should certainly put the bat on the ball and do some with some power vs sosa who struggles with geting too much of the plate too often. even in sosas great 2005 with mazzone he still put men on base too often and thats trouble vs a team that can slug like the jays. I also like them to cover their side of the total.
when i see a game in which i would be surprised by either team putting up 8 runs, i like to take the overs on each side as well as the game total and i have already done so with this game.
anything else on this game, we can certainly talk on it.


Pineiro is fighting for a spot in the rotation at this point and is someone the mariners Hope shows some life before the deadline so that they can ship him. he has some potential with a great curve and a decent two seemer but his problem is the loss of velocity on his FB. at times he tries to nibble on the corners and hes walking too many people. LAD doesnt feature a real patient team, being that most of them are very young and they lead off with Furcal. That being said, LAD isnt a team that Ks too often and they shouldnt have a problem putting the ball in play and doing so with some power. if Pineiro cant keep the ball down, he will get mashed. the main problem with LAD is Drew's shin and his ability to walk to the park not making the injury any worse. but with Kent rested and drew rested, LAD should give LAD some problems before they are able to get to Soriano/putz.
Penny has been great all year and the fairly light hitting Ms should struggle with him. the mariners overall offensive numbers are not as bad as most peolpe make them out to be, but they lack anything outside of ichiro and Ibanez that you feel will show up every night. Lopez has been great but i still think he is a bit of an unknown. their big money, beltre and sexson are simply players that you cant count on while capping. Sure sexson could hit a HR, but he puts solid contact on the ball so infrequently that you have to cap him as a non factor fo the most part. taking away the Dh frmo Seattle doesnt hurt them as much as it does a minn/clev so thats not something i would worry about a lot on that side of things. its likely seattle will be down and pinch hitting after the 5th and that puts every daye ddie into the game at some point and another chance at a big inning for LAD. in the end i like the dodgers to win the game. They have a shot at a big inning most every inning and thats something seattle doesnt offer vs penny. Penny is a horse and can go 7 innings without much problem, the thing there is we get into the pen which has been a bit shaky at times, but has a ton of talent.
overall i love dogs and like to take upsets when i see the value but here i believe the value is in the dodgers though the rl could become a factor seeing as they are likely to only get 8Abs to seattles 9.

anything else...just let me know bud

anymore games boys?


:money:

Thoughts on Cubs/Indians? I'm leaning towards the Cubs as I think they go on a mini run here and run off about 4 or 5 games in a row. ???

Thanks for your input in advance.

Mofome,

Thank you for those intelligent and cogent analyses.

I think the term "write-ups" does not do them justice.

Only people with cognitive dissonance would not listen to you attentively.

Good luck.

mofome said:

Penny is a horse and can go 7 innings without much problem, the thing there is we get into the pen which has been a bit shaky at times, but has a ton of talent.

Click to expand...

In Penny's 14 starts, only 3 of them have been 7 inning+ outings.
Part of the reason is because he's a max effort pitcher. He tries to overthrow a lot during a game, and his ball tends to rise little by little up in the zone as he tries to throw harder and harder. He's usually a 5-6 inning guy.

Good thread, carry on...

geeze said:

Mofome,

Thank you for those intelligent and cogent analyses.

I think the term "write-ups" does not do them justice.

Only people with cognitive dissonance would not listen to you attentively.

Good luck.

Click to expand...

not a problem. we are here to find wins together. my spelling, as usual, left something to be desired.


as far as penny, he has battled injury a bit this year, as usual but has been strong of late. He says his back and shoulder are full go as of now. i wouldnt suspect that 7 would be a problem should the dodgers have the lead. but if he walks 4 like he did a few starts ago, it could be a different story. seattle has some very free swingers and then you add Pineiro to their bats and penny could have a long outing IMO

Mulder pitches as a visitor tonight...check his split stats to see how bad he is in this situation.

I dont think i will fade him tonight because i would have to lay -150+ odds

The Poet said:

Thoughts on Cubs/Indians? I'm leaning towards the Cubs as I think they go on a mini run here and run off about 4 or 5 games in a row. ???

Thanks for your input in advance.

Click to expand...

we have recently seen both washington and the marlins go on mini streaks to get their fans believing in them again, the cubs could certainly do the same. Nevin has produced a lift to that lineup that has been missing since lee went down and ramirez has 6 hits with 2 HR in their last 4 games which means he could be heating up a bit. it was noly a few days ago, the 18th, the last time the cubs faced a lefty and while aramis put them on the board with his 12th HR, they did not manage much vs kenny Rogers. and while Rogers is a better Pitcher at this point (has a better understanding of the game and what he wants to do), Lee has more talent and can be tougher to hit. on the 3rd of June the cubs mashed up Mulder, but thats been more common place for the soon to be FA, Mark Mulder. I will tell you one thing, there are not many places like to hit more than they do Clev at night. batters say the background is just perfect for hitting. The cubs, moving to the Al format will be able to use a Dh, but they struggle enough finding bats to fill their 8 spots, much less do they have a real weapon at DH. All and all the cubs are a fairly light hitting team and they are going vs a SP that has posted a whip of 1.14, 0.91, and 0.90 in his last 3 starts. Lee is really coming on of late
on the other side we have Maddux going vs Clevland. Sizemore hasnt been hot of late and keeping him off the bases will certainly be a key to the evening for maddux. The future hall of famer hasnt been real sharp of late getting rocked by stl and houston on the outsides of his great outing @ the reds on the 9th. in 5 of maddux' last 6 outtings he has given up more hits than innings pitched and life wont get any easier in this night tilt with the mashing Indians. a big problem this year for the tribe has been the let down of Jhonny peralta but he has been the hottest hitter in the Al over the past 5 games. with jhonny returning to form, maddux being as hittable as he has been recently, and the way people love to hit in clev at night, i think clev could score early and build a lead for Lee. neither of these teams want to go to the pen early and i think clev will get into the cubs pen first.
I like Lee to build on his recent success and CHC lack of a true Dh to hurt them here. I like the Clev indians to win and this game, IMO, has enough value to play the rl



bol

Good stuff, thanks. The Poet

Nice thread :toast:

Oof. Thankfully I didn't end up pulling the trigger on that afterall. However, I did manage to lose a little over 3 dimes on Game 6 as we had Dallas Ml -300 x 5 and Dallas series ticket -157 x 5

Bad night last night for sure, all part of the game though. Moving forward...

:smoking:

Mo, great stuff... I am new, simple question, what are/is the best sites to read about Base???

Tx
GeneralZ

thanks, im willing to write up any games to the best of my ability whenever im here.

i dont really go to many specific sites to read and get info. I watch most games and follow most players from the minors. as bad as pitching is and as many injuries as there are these days i think following the minors plays a large part in capping some games.
-rotoworld.com is good for player info
-i dont read anything on espn really...buster olney knows less about baseball then my little sister.
-http://minorleaguebaseball.com/app/index.jsp?cid=milb is a site i get a lot of minor league news and box scores.

aside from those places i dont look at much more. i pay attention to these guys from the draft and know most of what they are good/bad at and then try to apply that to what the opposing pitcher/batters is good at.
pay attention to how SPs have been doign recently and how much work a teams pen has gotten recently.

then you have a game like LAD/Seattle today. LAD has been getting out played by seattle and today i think seattle takes the game once again. LAD plays a lot of guys who are very young and dominated the minors recently...they are going against a Sp that is younger but was even more dominant last at those levels. younger players have moe holes in their swings and tend to be less patient and thats what u need to beat someone with the stuff that felix hernandez can bring. seattle on the other hand is typically weaker vs strike out pitchers which tomko is not. he tends to pitch to contact and if his change up isnt really sinking he will have a tough time keeping balls from being hit hard. ichiro should be able to get on and make things happen and i think the mariners is a great value at -$1.14 today.
just a small example of a little bit i look at.


BOL




:money:

Mo ..thanks for your reply..

BOL

GeneralZ