Is this a scalp, or a good/bad play?

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Nov 19, 2004
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Haven't shopped around for better odds but check these lines at thegreek:

1Q Moneyline:
Miami +160
Dallas -180 (47.5 pts)


Prop:
Race to 25 points:
Miami +110
Dallas -140

Let's say a Miami 1Q +160 (900/1440) and a Dallas Race to 25 at -140 (1400/1000). Stakes are hypothetical.

With 47.5 pts expected, this is almost a Race to 24 pts.

Obviously if Dallas wins a low scoring 1Q and the Miami start the 2Q strong, both could lose, but there's an equal chance of the oppostie happening and both winning. Same if a high scoring 1Q where Miami hit 25 first and Dallas come back to win the quarter.

Even if this isn't a smart play, surely the odds should be tighter?
 

WVU

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being that Miami has won like 12 of the last 14 quarters I like the plus money on Miami 1q
 

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