College World Series - Omaha - Tuesday

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UF. Champion U.
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Nice bounceback day yesterday to get back on track. Got Rice and the under. Today, doggie style.

3* Clemson +150

Keep this play small as Clemson is another reason the ACC hasnt won a title since 1955 when Wake Forest did it. These guys find ways to choke no matter how good they are. And, it wont get any easier vs. a clutch and experienced Fullerton squad.

However, besides tradition and history, Clemson has some things going for them in this game, that makes me wonder why they are underdogs.

1) Lauren Gagnier, RHP, Fullerton - According to message board chatter from Fullerton boards, this guy had food poisoning and was in bed all day Sunday. But besides if that is true or not, this guy will be dog tired as this game wears on, and I wonder how sharp and effective his pitches will be vs. a good hitting Clemson lineup that was shutout last game by the herky jerky Woodard of UNC. Gagnier had a no-hitter in super regionals going and pitched very deep into that game to try and get the no-no. Then after that start he comes back this weekend, and comes in relief in the 13 inning marathon vs. UNC. He went 2.1 innings pitched but he threw 43 pitches, and it seems he will start tonight on 3 days. I dont expect him to show any serious effects from his relief appearance until the 5th, and I think he'll tire out easily. Especially if this food poisoning thing is true.
2) Fullerton Bullpen - If you start a tired/potentially sick Gagnier, you will have to turn it over to your pen eventually. And the whole reason they brought Gagnier in relief, is because they have no confidence in their pen. With that being said, they cant bring Roemer in relief here, or they will have no chance to beat UNC twice. They need to save ace Roemer for next game, #3 Dustin Miller can not go, and Gagnier is tired. You WILL see the Fullerton bullpen in this game, which is average, especially with the loss of their closer earlier this year. They dont have any Bryce Cox's that come out and throw 95 and paint. They dont have any Cole St. Clair's, no Chris Perez's. No shut down, lights out guys in that pen.
3) Fullerton Bats - It is becoming more and more apparent with each game that Fullerton cant hit. They rely on timely hitting, instead of an offensive attack. They need to keep their opponents within 5 runs to win, and I dont know if they will be able to do that today vs. Clemson. They will need the game of their lives from Lauren Gagnier, and due to factors that he cant control, it will be very tough for him to give that today.

Clemson will start Jason Berken. Who is another solid, yet non-dominant Clemson starter. He's not going to blow Fullerton away, he's going to rely on mixing up his location, changing his speeds and hitting his spots. I just think he'll be able to be successful because Fullerton has a hard time scoring as it is. They arent terrible offensively, but they arent great either.

Overall, I'm keeping this play small because I dont trust Clemson. But there is definite, definite, definite value here with the Tigers who should win this game.

Check back later tonight for tonight's play.
 

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you know how food poisoning goes, it isnt the flu...it usually kills you for 1 day, 2 days TOPS...i think he should be fine. how about the 'under' in this spot?

computer projections for today:

CSF -228
Clem 8.61 o/u

OrSt -142
Mia 11.58 o/u

dont think of me hi-jacking your thread with these (not that i have been convinced)...i pretty much consider your posts the official CWS posts because i respect your opinion on these games. so i like adding the computer projectons in here as an additional source of info.

:103631605
 

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Junior right-hander Lauren Gagnier, who battled a bout of food poisoning Sunday, said he was feeling "pretty good" and is ready to pitch today against top-seeded Clemson. "I spent the first six innings yesterday in the clubhouse but came out toward the end to cheer the team on," Gagnier said. "I was supposed to pitch, but I'm glad I didn't have to. It worked out." Gagnier was scratched after throwing 21/3 innings of relief Friday.

Tough call, he certainly isn't going to come out and say i'm sick as dog and weak.
 

UF. Champion U.
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First, I welcome all input. The thread really isnt complete without the computer projections. Every little bit helps.

Second, I've never had food poisoning before. I imagine he was vomiting any source of energy he had. 3 days rest, he's supposed to be recovering, not spitting out nutrients, etc. Thats all I meant.

Third, the under. It crossed my mind. Should be a hard fought game, two good teams, fighting to not go home. Fullerton can't swing it too well. Clemson was just shut out. How will they respond? So I researched it...

Here are a few factors:

1) How deep can Gagnier go? How effective will he be? And how effective will the average bullpen be vs. a good Clemson lineup? The way you beat Clemson is keeping them off balance, keeping the ball low in the zone, and hitting your spots. And that's exactly what Woodard did. He speed-pitched them, worked fast, tried to be deceptive with that fast delivery, but then a slow change-up, hit his spots, kept the ball down. Gagnier is more of a stuff pitcher. He challenges you with the fastball, his location isnt superb, and I think that plays into Clemsons style at the plate.
2) Although Fullerton struggles to hit, they arent facing a dominant starter, and these guys are always good for 5 a game.
3) Clemson. In games that they were held to less than 4 runs, the next game back they have averaged over 7 runs per game. This team is capable of putting up 8 runs in any single inning, they have been in two games where one team scored over 20 runs this season. About 1 out of every 4 clemson games the total has gone over 15. it's just a scary thought to me.

I see a 7-5 final with Clemson, and I see that total being right on.

JMO
 

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6* Miami Hurricanes +150

Trust me that I have a write-up for this game. I'm going to be an uncle in 3 hours, gotta hit up the hospital.

Big drop off for both teams #3 starters. Slug fest tonight. Nobody wins a slugfest better than Miami as we saw in Ole Miss. Oregon State simplky doesnt have the bats to hang in this one, regardless of pitching. Huge value with Miami.
 

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Boxslayer32 said:
6* Miami Hurricanes +150

Trust me that I have a write-up for this game. I'm going to be an uncle in 3 hours, gotta hit up the hospital.

Big drop off for both teams #3 starters. Slug fest tonight. Nobody wins a slugfest better than Miami as we saw in Ole Miss. Oregon State simplky doesnt have the bats to hang in this one, regardless of pitching. Huge value with Miami.

Thanks for the piks and all your write ups. Enjoy being an uncle. I became an aunt yesterday for the 4th time, I love it!
 

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Box I am certainly not dogging your Clemson pick but you almost make a case for taking Cal St. You refer to Clemson choking. They do that frequently here. You said that Cal St can't hit and they rely on timely hitting. Cal St has won regionals and national titles with pitching and timely since for the last 2 decades. That is how they play and you can certainly make a case for it, because they have won national championships. I can't say Clemson is overrated because they had a great record in the ACC, which is by far the best conference. I just dont' think they are as good as billed. Even a sorry ass hitting Mississippi State team scored on them. This is my opinion, but i think the only reason Clemson beat GT in the first game is because GT chokes more than Clemson.
 

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Box:

Just wouldn't be a summer day without reading your write-ups on the CWS. I'll have to pass on the first game as I'm holding a future ticket (+300) on the Titans, so a watch for me. I look forward to your analysis as I've now seen Miami, thank you very much, but haven't watched Oregon State. More importantly, congratulations in advance on becoming an uncle.
 

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I agree with both picks today. I'm glad you're going with the dogs, as I was too. We can profit with a split, but we could easily win them both.

Thanks for continued great write-ups.
 

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i took the over 12.5 in the clem/csf game..anyone think i got a chance? the scoring has stopped...:smoking:
 

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NICEGUY47911 said:
i took the over 12.5 in the clem/csf game..anyone think i got a chance? the scoring has stopped...:smoking:

Its only the 4th...7 runs....plenty of time, and more important, I hope you cash for your sake
 

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the game was going well scoring wise but now..it's turned into 3 up-3 down...looks like a giants @padres game


I WANNA SEE SOME HOME RUNS, THIS IS COLLEGE BASEBALL FOR CHRIST SAKE!!!
 

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NICEGUY47911 said:
the game was going well scoring wise but now..it's turned into 3 up-3 down...looks like a giants @padres game


I WANNA SEE SOME HOME RUNS, THIS IS COLLEGE BASEBALL FOR CHRIST SAKE!!!

u got 9....
 

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Box,

First off, congrats on becoming an uncle....I have a 4 year old nephew, and being an uncle is the best thing that has happened to me. Truly awesome! :103631605

Secondly,

LETS GO HEAT !!!

:party: :dancefool :party: :dancefool

P.S. I am on the Clemson play with you. :103631605
 
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Miami really looks like a solid pick......almost too much so.

:smoking:
 

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told ya so....this has turned into an NL West game... I lose the over..another $500. down the drain...
 

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NICEGUY47911 said:
told ya so....this has turned into an NL West game... I lose the over..another $500. down the drain...

You can stop worrying about your over now.

What we need is for Clemson to win the game.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Just got back from the hospital. Thanks for all of the posts.

When I make a 3* play, and my plays go as high as 15* in the CWS, take it for what it's worth. I felt Clemson had a lot of advantages in this game, and they jumped out to a 6-3 lead, and have....choked it away, as I was worried about. I can't not make a play on a team just because they are chokers, so I kept it small.

Now with a man on, lead off double they are looking to take the lead back in the bottom of 9.

I wont be able to write-up the Miami Hurricanes game vs. Oregon State as the Heat are on.

GO HEAT
 

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