three tonight with analysis

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L.A. Angels +1.00 over SAN FRANCISCO

Matt Cain was brilliant last night in the opener and it’ll likely take a repeat performance from Matt Morris to get the same results. From yesterday to today nothing has changed with these two teams, as the Giants played to form and squeezed out two runs. San Fran is a horrible favorite and they absolutely do not have an edge on the mound here or anywhere else for that matter. Morris has not won consecutive starts since his first two games of the season April 5 and 13, and has not won at home since that second victory. He is 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in six starts at AT&T Park this year. John Lackey has suffered from a lack of run support but has been his usual reliable self. Lackey has surrendered just 72 hits in 91 innings and comes into this one with a nice ERA of 3.46. On the road is ERA is 2.84 and nine of his 10 starts have been of the quality variety. The Angels offense has not been what we’ve been accustomed to seeing from them but the Giants are certainly no better and it’s on the mound where the Angels complete this assignment. Wrong side favored. Play: L.A. Angels (Risking 1.5 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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KANSAS CITY –1 +1.41 over Pittsburgh (pinnacle)

Although the Pirates are a very short price here the fact that they’re the chalk in this one is simply incorrect and as bad as the Royals have been, the worst road record in the majors still belongs to the Pirates. Pittsburgh is a brutal 8-25 on the road and they’ll send out Kip Wells to make his season debut. Wells has been on the disabled list the entire season following surgery to repair a blocked artery in his right shoulder. He wasn't expected back until the All-Star break and was supposed to make another rehabilitation start this week, but with right-hander Victor Santos going on the DL, the Pirates decided to give Wells the nod. Yeah, Wells is a good wager tonight, a guy that lost the most games in the majors last year, playing for a team with the worst road record in the business and to top that off, Wells is forced into action tonight and is about five steps behind everyone else. Mark Redman is a good lefthander that is in fine form at the moment and has been for about six weeks following a rough start. Redman is coming off back-to-back eight-inning performances in which he beat both the Angels and Devil Rays. He also has recent quality starts over both the White Sox and the Tigers. Furthermore, the Royals have won three of four and the offense scored 16 runs in those three wins. Oh yeah, one last thing; Pittsburgh is 2-11 on the road against southpaws and 6-19 overall and they shouldn’t be favored over the Chiefs here, let alone the Royals. Play: Kansas City –1 +1.41 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Toronto +1.14 over ATLANTA

Jays have not faired well against the NL but that’s not going to deter us from taking back a tag on the superior team and it’s not like they’re facing Smoltz or Hudson here. The Jays will see Jorge Sosa and his 1-9 record and 5.35 ERA and than they’ll get a bullpen that is shaken up badly, beat up badly and when the starter begins to inevitably struggle each member of said bullpen is praying his name doesn’t get called. The pen has blown 14 of 29 save opportunities and the Braves offense hasn’t been much better. This is a frustrated and very down host and it only makes sense to kick them when they’re that down. We prefer someone other than Josh Towers but this choice has very little to do with that. The Blue Jays have a glorious opportunity to get the ship right-sided here and they’ve avoided prolonged losing streaks all year due to an explosive offense that should have little trouble scoring a bunch tonight. Play: Toronto +1.14 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
 

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