1 Run wins by the Favorite

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Anyone know how many games percentage wise are won by 1 run..or even more specifically, how many times the the Favorite wins by 1 run statistically?

considering run line options....

idahoooo
 

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100% of the time i bet it. It has cost me about 8 units this year.
 

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im guessing its about 25-33%

a year..otherwise you can just take the underdog at + value and the runline for the favorite of the game which is usually + value....and net money if the fav. wins by 1 less then 25% of the time
 

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exactly one

Idahoman said:
how many games percentage wise are won by 1 run

According to an online database I use occasionally, teams which were more than a -105 favorite were overall 3310-2434. Of those 3310 wins, 906 were by exactly one run.

Looking at teams at least -140, they were 1942-1260. Of the 1942 wins, 527 were by exactly one run.
 

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so basically

if you can bet the run line and underdog at a poitn where you guranteed 25% or more of the total amount wagered.....you should net money on games with a -140 fav...because from yoru statistics the fav. will only win by 1 run 1 out of 6 times...500 out of 3000 approx...
 

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Amsterdam said:
Basically, what some posters in this thread are suggesting doing (taking ML dog and fav RL in the same game) will not work.

Yeah, I think the books have the run line pretty well calculated. And since it's a twenty cent line, there'd have to be a very good reason to choose it over the conventional line.
 

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amsterdam post it why not work

if you shop lines..you can make +.20 if you split runline and straight up bet.....such as a +140 one way on straight up underdog and run line dog at +140...in theory that would net .40 while risking 200 if you lost or 1/5.....if the fav doesnt win by 1 run on average more than 1 of of 5 times you can net money it woudl appear...

obvioulsy, you may need several books to find the right lines..and on a given day you may only find 1 or 2 games or maybe 0 games that meet the criteria to give you at least that 1/5 situation but i think it can be done...
 

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not sure all that math is necessary

if its a .40 unit net...you would have to win 5 out of 6 actually to break even..so you are right 4 out of 5 isnt good enough 1/6 is 16% so 1 run games won by the favorite would have to occur less then 16%..which doesnt appear to be the case..

5 x .4 = .2.0
1 loss = -2.0

so you can't win in the long run with a .40 unit 'win'.....now if it gets up to .50 units...then my 4 out of 5 calculation now comes into play but i doubt you can get that type of line

however...how about my football 2h plays? i only take teams that are +120 or better..as they hardly changed the lines..just the value...so in theory its a 50/50 play thats only up for 10 minutes so not a lot of theory behind it...i figure ifi can hit 47% of these plays im in good shape

47 wins of +120 = 5640
53 losses +100 = 5300

as you can see you can hit 46% and still make a profit....
 

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