Boxslayer's College World Series Wednesday

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UF. Champion U.
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Last 3 days have been down up down. After winning day after winning day, we've hit some inconsistency. Neither of the underdogs could pull it off yesterday. Looking to bounceback again today like we have done after our previous losing day.

4* Fullerton -167
2* Fullerton -1.5 +100

Safest bet in Omaha vs. biggest headcase in Omaha.
Roemer vs. Bard.
Daniel Bard starts for UNC. You look at the basics, the kid was a 1st rounder. He throws low 90's, with good stuff. But the reality is, this kid is the biggest headcase in Omaha, maybe in college baseball, and he is the poster boy for why I have said time and time again that this UNC team didn't stand a chance if Andrew Miller wasn't on the mound. Well, they got a nice outing from the herky, jerky Woodard the other day, hitting his spots, and an extended strike zone from the umpire. But, I'm fading the Tar Heels again here.

This team is not that good when Andrew Miller isn't on the mound. They rely on their hitting to pull them through outside of Miller, and that will be tough vs. Wes Roemer today, who should get the nod for Fullerton. I don't imagine Roemer will be able to go very deep into this game, he closed the game last night, getting 2 outs, including a strikeout, in a crucial situation, showing yet again what kind of a pitcher this kid is. I've said before this kid is the safest bet in Omaha, and he only gets safer going up against my Ryan Leaf of the year award for erratic 1st rounder Daniel Bard.

The short rest, closing a game, these are the kinds of things that Roemer does. And most others pitchers I would be concerned about, but not this kid. I can't say enough about his mental toughness, his competitive attitude his will to win. I can say the exact opposite for Bard.

Fullerton has shown some resiliency here. They battled back from that day 1, tough 13 inning loss to UNC, and have battled and battled, and have had come from behind after come from behind. They have shown some momentum, some toughness, some _________(insert x factor here).

Finally, I'll say this again. I am not sold on this UNC team to perform in big games. They had the 2nd worst fielding % in Omaha, lead by their shortstop Horton, who is error central. They can hit the baseball, there is no doubt there, but I still think this team is capable of the ACC choke that we have seen for the past half century, including a few more this year.

I feel I have a good read on this game. But if you don't want to put over 8 units at risk on this, just play Fullerton small on the runline. If you dont mind laying some juice, take Fullerton -175. Let's bounce back today and pull this one in.
 

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Isn't Bard the pitcher that you said is terrible on the road? He walks batters and has no control?

I'm with you on CSF. Hope Roemer comes out as fired up as he was last night in relief. His stuff was nasty.
 

Professional At All Times
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Box:

First, congratulations on the Heat winning the championship last night. As for today's game, I still am holding my future on the Titans (+300) but am considering making a play on them as well in this game. Just need a little clarification on your last statement regarding the 8 units. I believe you have a good read on this game as well, but are only showing a 4 unit play straight up. Can you clarify please? Thanks in advance and best of luck today.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Bennyshoe said:
Isn't Bard the pitcher that you said is terrible on the road? He walks batters and has no control?

I'm with you on CSF. Hope Roemer comes out as fired up as he was last night in relief. His stuff was nasty.

Yep, same kid. One of the worst road pitchers in college ball.

Because he's a headcase. He's not mentally tough. He's got the stuff, he's got nasty pitches, he throws hard. But it doesnt do any good when you walk 3 batters and then plunk 3 more to spot the other team 2 as he did vs. Bama. North Carolina will have a very short leash with this kid and if they see him walk them loaded and plunk batters, he will be out by the 1st or 2nd inning, then NC's bullpen will have to hold Fullerton down for the rest of the game.

If Fullerton wins because Bard is crazy wild, it should set up an interesting elimination game, next game, between these two teams with a spent NC bullpen.
 

UF. Champion U.
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oldmanTED said:
Box:

First, congratulations on the Heat winning the championship last night. As for today's game, I still am holding my future on the Titans (+300) but am considering making a play on them as well in this game. Just need a little clarification on your last statement regarding the 8 units. I believe you have a good read on this game as well, but are only showing a 4 unit play straight up. Can you clarify please? Thanks in advance and best of luck today.

Sorry just a typo. 8 = 6.

Thanks. I have been spoiled with basketball titles this year with the Gators and Heat. Of course, the alma mater always means a bit more, but it's exciting not just to be a lifelong fan of the Heat and finally seeing them win one, but it's the fact that they have this *potential* NBA legend in Dwyane Wade, and it's just really special watching him develop. It's great to be able to watch this guy every single game. As much as he was clutch in the closing moments of the Finals, and elevated his game to the next level, it's something he has done even since a rookie. It's great to see him get some recognition as being a *potential* legend growing before your eyes. Guys that live in south Florida and get local sunshine network, are spolied for being able to see this guy compete night in and night out. It's what being a fan is all about. I'm a fan of Dwyane Wade, and a fan of the Heat, and proud to say it.

As for this game tonight, I will be posting a few more stats, trends, etc before 4pm. I believe the game starts at 5pm.

Keep my unit size in mind. When I risk 4 units, it would be like somewhere in between a 1* and 2* play for you. 10* = your 3*.
 

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Box:

Appreciate the quick response. As for Wade, I watched him at Marquette and knew he was special. He has the heart of a champion which very few have and the ability to will his team to win and is clutch at the most crucial times. Very, very few players in today's NBA have his characteristics. He will be a joy to watch throughout his career. Thanks again. I'll be on the Titans today.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Daniel Bard, UNC RHP - Last few outings outings have been so bad, he was bumped from his #2 starter spot, and into the #3 spot this week in favor of Woodard, a move that panned out for UNC. Here are his last few outings (post-season, crap down the leg):

at Alabama
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard.......... 2.0 3 2 2 2 0 8 13 51 (also 3 hit batters)

Summary: 2 IP, 3 HBP, 2 BB's, 3 hits


at home vs. Winthrop
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 6.2 8 2 2 2 8 27 30 92

Summary: Good outing. Why? he was at home, and facing Winthrop. 1 more HBP though.


at home vs. Boston College
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 7.0 5 1 1 2 4 24 29 102

Summary: Good outing. Why? At home vs. Boston College. Add 2 more HBP's though.

at Virginia
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 3.2 5 3 2 3 3 14 21 75

Summary: 2 more hit batters, 3 walks, 5 hits in only 3.2. AT Virginia

at Duke
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 6.0 4 1 1 2 6 20 25 110

Summary: Not a terrible road outing. But it's also Duke, who is terrible in baseball. 2 more HBP's.

at home vs. NC State
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 9.0 4 0 0 0 8 31 31 106

Summary: He was taken in the 1st round because he has the ability to put together games like this. It was at home, where he's comfortable, but still a nice performance. This is the Bard that is scary. But this Bard has never appeared on the road.

at Miami
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 4.2 8 6 6 3 6 21 25 92

Summary: Road Bard. add another HBP. 3 walks, 1 HBP, 4 free passes.


at home vs. FSU
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 3.2 3 4 3 2 5 14 19 80

Even at home he strggueld because he was facing a good club. Add 3 more HBP's. 3HBP + 2BB = 5 free passes

at Georgia Tech
North Carolina IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Daniel Bard......... 3.2 2 3 2 6 2 13 19 79

Summary: Hey no HBP's, but he walked 6 to make up for it.


43.1 IP, 36 walks and HBP's his past few games

Men should be on board early for Fullerton. Compared to Roemer who has 6 walks in 140 IP. He will make UNC earn it. Complete opposite pitchers.
 

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here are the projections:

CSF -257
UNC 9.5 o/u

Orst 10.5 o/u
Rice -132

going to roll with you on CS Fullerton (eventhough i go to their rival school!!) :lolBIG: . i will be rooting for them to win the whole thing and they should take care of business today. i'm also taking a shot with Oregon St. at the +183 price...what is your take on that game?

GL today Box
 

UF. Champion U.
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Rice or lay off, IMO. I'll be making a -1.5 play on Rice later. Just determining for how much.

Oregon State is out matched in this one. If I had to pick a team to come out of the loser's bracket, I pick Fullerton. If I had to pick a favorite, I'd pick Rice.

Rice hitting advantage.
Pitching maybe even.
Bullpen advantage.
Defense even.
Experience advantage.
Well-rested advantage.
Coaching advantage.
Tradition advantage.
Winner's bracket advantage/mental advantage.
 

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whats up Box......SIA doesnt even have the CWS lines on the board??? Any idea why?? was gonna get a little of your Fullerton play but maybe not?
 

UF. Champion U.
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No idea, they must know I bounceback big time the day after I lose!!!!!! :thumbsup2:

I use greek and pinny, so I cant tell you.
 

UF. Champion U.
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For those who followed these futures plays, we may have hedge opportunities, we may not. But all are still on, and looking good so far:


Boxslayer's NCAA OMAHA Futures*
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->College World Series Futures and Futures Prop Bets are Out. Making a few average and small sized plays here for future hedge opportunities. Pinny and Greek

5* Will one of the big two win the CWS (Rice or Fullerton)? YES +122
3* Will a team from the ACC win the CWS? No -162
2* Oregon State to win the CWS +800
1* Rice to win the CWS +350


I can't stress this enough, but pitching rules in Omaha with timely hitting.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

You need a DEEEEEP pitching staff to make it through this double elimination format. Every team can hit now, and solid D1 starters dont get it done anymore. You need a couple of dominant starters, a good bullpen, a deeeep staff.

Fullerton
Roermer/Gagnier (no better 1-2 punch in this CWS, other than OSU)

Rice
Degerman/St.Clair/Cox/Savery/Bell/Crow

Oregon State
Buck/Nickerson/Gunderson

These are your 3 teams with a legit chance. Problem with Fullerton is they have to make it out of a war of an ACC bracket. Oregon State and Rice seemed destined to meet each other, but stranger things have happened. Rice should be in the Finals here as I have my doubts about Oregon States hitting, but no doubts about Rices.

As Posted on 6/13/06

Legit Contenders in order
1. Rice
2. Fullerton

Outside Shot
3. Oregon State
4. Clemson

Little Chance
5. North Carolina
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Georgia Tech

<!-- / message -->
 

Rx Post Doc
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I'm on Cal-State Fullerton with you and because of your pick, Boxslayer! Good luck to us and thanks for the play. tulsa

Go Cal-State Fullerton uhmmmm uh....whatevers!!! That is how much I know about the college world series. But...I do know how money spends! tulsa
 

You play... to win... the game
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Lol... Titans. And go Titans indeed. Hopefully they can dump Carolina into the losers bracket and then get rid of them and have Rice take care of Oregon State (though seeing Oregon State won't be so bad either if they win).
 

UF. Champion U.
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For those interested in this game, thats why I love Wes Roemer right there.

He doesnt give free passes, you have to string together consecutive hits against him and its too tough to score.

North Carolina gets 2 basehits with 1 out, but they cant get any runs from the inning because the guy doesnt walk people.

Bard, however, after giving up a leadoff single, goes through the first inning without any damage, and thats not good. If this kid settles into the game, he'll be tough. They need to rattle him early and often. He did have a fullcount already early, so if we can see Bard give up a walk or 2, and a hit, he will unravel.
 

SSI

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got to stop this fullerton talk, still holding my UNC (+8.77) future... go heels, guru im shocked..
 

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see this is a perfect example of my life...normally i would have taken the over 10 in this game...however, there is so much hype with csf..i took csf...which means they should lose and the total sails over since i didnt take it:nohead:
 

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