I need help. CWS Hedging...Please Read

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UF. Champion U.
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I need to hedge for the college world series. But I'm not sure how to do it since no series prices are offered. Here's what I have:

All of my bets are essentially against UNC, and I think they may win this thing.

Will an ACC Team win the Title? No
ACC vs. the Field: The Field
Oregon State to win it all +860, +748


I essentially have
$1,274 to win $1,890


Any ideas? Do I wait to see who wins game 1? And if UNC does, bet on them game 2? How much should I wager game 2? 50% of my winnings, etc...please help.
 

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I wouldn't make any wagers at this point that you do not think are good value plays. You know how to read each game well and just follow your instincts and you will come out way ahead over time that way. That is if you aren't in a huge financial pinch ofcourse.
 

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boxslayer,

I think unc is gonna win this thing and your in a tough situitaion, If i were you i would go ahead and bet the heels today for atleast $500 and then if oregon st were to win you would just ride your original wagers out i would think.
 

UF. Champion U.
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royalfan said:
I wouldn't make any wagers at this point that you do not think are good value plays. You know how to read each game well and just follow your instincts and you will come out way ahead over time that way. That is if you aren't in a huge financial pinch ofcourse.

Yeah and my instincts tell me North Carolina wins.

Not in a financial pinch, but I made a few purchases on my credit card that I would like to pay off with some of the money in my sports account, and I dont want to completely lose this money.
 

UF. Champion U.
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chuck franklin said:
boxslayer,

I think unc is gonna win this thing and your in a tough situitaion, If i were you i would go ahead and bet the heels today for atleast $500 and then if oregon st were to win you would just ride your original wagers out i would think.

Interesting. Yeah, if OSU wins game 1, they will be in a good spot. At the same time, I could bet UNC game1, they could win so I hedged a bit, and even if they win they may lose the next 2. Who knows.

If they lose, I let them ride out. I think OSu will have a big advantage in game 3 with Nickerson vs. Bard if it comes to that.

Any other suggestions???????????
 

Rx Post Doc
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Boxslayer,

First, the amount you would like to 'hedge' would be up to your risk tolerance and who you are AND also a product of your analysis of who you think will win and how strongly you feel (capping reasons and instinct) one team or the other will win.

How you hedge (the following is not a true hedge) would be like this, though, in my best opinion and I'm really trying to work this out as if it were my money: The teams that win the first game usually win the series in this format. You need to go back and check the historicals of this to see what percentage of the time that happens. Now, given that factor, if Oregon State wins this first game then that affects your attitude toward the next one or two games AND your wagers are still 'live'. BUT, you can begin hedging with this game.

I don't know if you have a run-line available to work with. The run-line:-1.5 runs is not widely available. Even if you do have it available you may not want to use it. That comes back to your capping. If I were you, I would place some monies on UNC THIS game since you believe they will win this short series. If you assume that they (UNC) will win this thing then (using a logic rule and the fact that win first game ===> win series) they PROBABLY will win this first game. Now, that is not rocket science as the line indicates they are fairly heavy favorites. I see -1.65 at my shop. You must decide how much you would like to lay off today even though it is expensive. That comes down to it being based on the amount of risk you would like to maintain and also your capping of the situation whether by gut instinct or hard capping or both.

So, I am saying lay off some today in my opinion. If it were me, and this is JUST who I am and the amount of money you are dealing with as if it were mine. I would be sweating this amount of money a bit. Why lay off some today? IF UNC wins today, it will be much more expensive to lay off some tomorrow than today. SO...I would wager $825 to win $500 today. That is what I would do given the amount of money you have available. If you lose today then you may very well win your other (this is a hard situation as it is not a true hedge...you could lose today and lose your other wagers and a true hedge only decreases your at risk amount.) HOWEVER, if you lose today your other wagers are still live and their odds of winning go up markedly. You could still get a net payout of 1000 or so. If you win today then you COULD STILL WIN your standing wagers if OSU takes the next two. Less likely, sure. That would give you a 2300 net payout or so (ignoring what you do tomorrow or on the third game.)

BUT, if you feel strongly that UNC will win then you have the likelihood that they will win today and you have decreased your approx 1300 at risk right now to 800 (IF they win today.) I would do that and then make new decisions on tomorrow's game based on what happens today. You could further reduce that 800 at risk (given a win today) on a 2nd and 3rd game.

You are increasing your risk if you do this plan, so it is not a true hedge; but given your indicated feelings about the winner of the series, this would be what I would do in your situation. If you don't catch something I'm saying or if I haven't explained well what I would do, let me know and I will try to do better job of explaining. Good luck and I have really tried to take the time to explain what I would do in this situation. I won't be bothered if you toss what I say out the window as stupendously stupid. I just ask that you let us know what you do so that we can all learn from this situation.

Again, good luck. tulsa
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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I like UNC today. If UNC loses today, I think you are in good position to cash your Beaver bet. So betting UNC today does not seem like a bad idea.

Dont forget too Nickerson had that fingernail issue which for a pitcher could cause some problems, especially a few days later.
 

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Tulsa said:
Boxslayer,

First, the amount you would like to 'hedge' would be up to your risk tolerance and who you are AND also a product of your analysis of who you think will win and how strongly you feel (capping reasons and instinct) one team or the other will win.

How you hedge (the following is not a true hedge) would be like this, though, in my best opinion and I'm really trying to work this out as if it were my money: The teams that win the first game usually win the series in this format. You need to go back and check the historicals of this to see what percentage of the time that happens. Now, given that factor, if Oregon State wins this first game then that affects your attitude toward the next one or two games AND your wagers are still 'live'. BUT, you can begin hedging with this game.

I don't know if you have a run-line available to work with. The run-line:-1.5 runs is not widely available. Even if you do have it available you may not want to use it. That comes back to your capping. If I were you, I would place some monies on UNC THIS game since you believe they will win this short series. If you assume that they (UNC) will win this thing then (using a logic rule and the fact that win first game ===> win series) they PROBABLY will win this first game. Now, that is not rocket science as the line indicates they are fairly heavy favorites. I see -1.65 at my shop. You must decide how much you would like to lay off today even though it is expensive. That comes down to it being based on the amount of risk you would like to maintain and also your capping of the situation whether by gut instinct or hard capping or both.

So, I am saying lay off some today in my opinion. If it were me, and this is JUST who I am and the amount of money you are dealing with as if it were mine. I would be sweating this amount of money a bit. Why lay off some today? IF UNC wins today, it will be much more expensive to lay off some tomorrow than today. SO...I would wager $825 to win $500 today. That is what I would do given the amount of money you have available. If you lose today then you may very well win your other (this is a hard situation as it is not a true hedge...you could lose today and lose your other wagers and a true hedge only decreases your at risk amount.) HOWEVER, if you lose today your other wagers are still live and their odds of winning go up markedly. You could still get a net payout of 1000 or so. If you win today then you COULD STILL WIN your standing wagers if OSU takes the next two. Less likely, sure. That would give you a 2300 net payout or so (ignoring what you do tomorrow or on the third game.)

BUT, if you feel strongly that UNC will win then you have the likelihood that they will win today and you have decreased your approx 1300 at risk right now to 800 (IF they win today.) I would do that and then make new decisions on tomorrow's game based on what happens today. You could further reduce that 800 at risk (given a win today) on a 2nd and 3rd game.

You are increasing your risk if you do this plan, so it is not a true hedge; but given your indicated feelings about the winner of the series, this would be what I would do in your situation. If you don't catch something I'm saying or if I haven't explained well what I would do, let me know and I will try to do better job of explaining. Good luck and I have really tried to take the time to explain what I would do in this situation. I won't be bothered if you toss what I say out the window as stupendously stupid. I just ask that you let us know what you do so that we can all learn from this situation.

Again, good luck. tulsa

Thanks for this post. Great, great post. I'll let you know what I do.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Ok, hopefully this is something everyone can learn from, whether this is the right decision or not.

This is not a true hedge scenario, and yes, Tulsa, $1,000 dollars, particularly $2,000+ coming back to me in total, is a lot for me. I probably bet a lot for my age, but in the big scheme of things, I'm still young and this money is important to me. That's not to say I can't afford to lose the money I'm playing, but it would be nice to pull about $500 profit from these bets.

With that in mind, reading some posts, Tulsa's went into good detail, I am going to sit out game 1.

Here's why:

1. The deeper this series goes, the better I think I can make a decision. 2. Oregon State can very much win tonight, and if they do, I'd like to let my bets ride out and not throw away money so early.

Game 1 winner may win 70% of the time, but we dont know who has won game 1 yet.

Anyway, here is my plan:

Watch game 1 to see what happens:

Scenario A.
Oregon State wins. (Best Case Scenario)

Now I can get greedy and let my play ride out. Now I can sit back and watch game 2 also. If Oregon State wins, I never needed to hedge and I won all of those bets. If Oregon State loses Games 2, now I am in a true hedge scenario, and bet on UNC Game 3.

Scenario B.
North Carolina wins Game 1.

Now I hedge 50% of my winnings Game 2 on UNC. If they lose. I hedge the next 50% on UNC Game 3.

I also think this game 1 line is hurting me with Andrew Miller on the mound. I have to lay a lot of juice. I imagine the next game's line will be a little tighter, win or lose for UNC as they wont have a dominant starter like Miller going, and maybe it will make the line tighter so I dont have to lay so much juice to hedge.

Overall, like I said, the deeper the series goes, the more I will know how it will play out, and I can make a more informed decision.

Hopefully, it works out good for me, and Oregon State wins tonight.

Go Beavers!

:party:
 

Rx Post Doc
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Thanks for letting us know your strategery so that we can root this one in for you. Good luck, Box, and thanks for taking the time to post your very good insight and write-ups on these boards. You really make the Rx a better place for you posting here.

Again, good luck and GO BEAVERS!!!! tulsa

:dancefool :dancefool :dancefool
 

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What great posts by Boxslayer and Tulsa both.

I love when guys share their process and how they come to decisions. I always seem to learn something when anyone does this.

Box, I just saw this thread, but I think you made the right decision for tonight. NC has jumped to a 2-0 lead early, but I'm not sure how much that means. They could go on to win it 2-0, but I don't think they will.

Funny, just before they scored, I was reading your post about predicting the final score, and what came up for me, right before the Heels scored, was that Oregon St would win 4-2 or 4-3. If it turns out that way, it would work out nicely for both of us.

Good luck at any rate.
 

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