Ok, hopefully this is something everyone can learn from, whether this is the right decision or not.
This is not a true hedge scenario, and yes, Tulsa, $1,000 dollars, particularly $2,000+ coming back to me in total, is a lot for me. I probably bet a lot for my age, but in the big scheme of things, I'm still young and this money is important to me. That's not to say I can't afford to lose the money I'm playing, but it would be nice to pull about $500 profit from these bets.
With that in mind, reading some posts, Tulsa's went into good detail, I am going to sit out game 1.
Here's why:
1. The deeper this series goes, the better I think I can make a decision. 2. Oregon State can very much win tonight, and if they do, I'd like to let my bets ride out and not throw away money so early.
Game 1 winner may win 70% of the time, but we dont know who has won game 1 yet.
Anyway, here is my plan:
Watch game 1 to see what happens:
Scenario A.
Oregon State wins. (Best Case Scenario)
Now I can get greedy and let my play ride out. Now I can sit back and watch game 2 also. If Oregon State wins, I never needed to hedge and I won all of those bets. If Oregon State loses Games 2, now I am in a true hedge scenario, and bet on UNC Game 3.
Scenario B.
North Carolina wins Game 1.
Now I hedge 50% of my winnings Game 2 on UNC. If they lose. I hedge the next 50% on UNC Game 3.
I also think this game 1 line is hurting me with Andrew Miller on the mound. I have to lay a lot of juice. I imagine the next game's line will be a little tighter, win or lose for UNC as they wont have a dominant starter like Miller going, and maybe it will make the line tighter so I dont have to lay so much juice to hedge.
Overall, like I said, the deeper the series goes, the more I will know how it will play out, and I can make a more informed decision.
Hopefully, it works out good for me, and Oregon State wins tonight.
Go Beavers!
arty: