-1.5 both sides trial

slcgreg · Jun 27, 2006

I will attempt to see how Tulsa's theory of taking both sides at -1.5 does, using a system I created to pick games closely following the other thread.

For 6/27:

BOS -1.5 +150, NYM -1.5 +165
BAL -1.5 +170, PHIL -1.5 +165
NYY -1.5 +120, ATL -1.5 +190
ANA -1.5 +170, COL -1.5 +175
TEX -1.5 +135, SF -1.5 +220
CLE -1.5 +185, STL -1.5 +160

all for today.

I will track these under this thread, separate from my 5-inning tracked thread.
Let's hope it works!!

CapNCash · Jun 27, 2006

So Far this week only 3 out of 20 were 1 run games. That is definetly in moneymaking range.

trains40 · Jun 27, 2006

YES ME AND SLCGREG HAVE BEEN PLAYING WITH THIS. WE WILL SEE IF LONG RUN WORKS NICELY. WE WENT 3-0 LAST NIGHT I GUESS YOU COULD SAY 3-3 WHICH WILL MAKE YOU MONEY. :103631605

:toast:

5teamparlay · Jun 27, 2006

Cosider the Royal game. The ROYALS have lost a game by at least one run in every road series this year.

trains40 · Jun 27, 2006

WE ARE TRYING MINIMIZE THE PLAYS HERE TO KEEP FROM GETTING TO MANY GAMES INVOLVED. OF COURSE YOU COULD HAVE A CASE FOR THAT BUT WE ARE TRYING TO PLAY WITH IT AS WE GO ALONG. AS YOU KNOW 5 OUT OF 15 WILL BE ONE RUN GAMES. HOPEFULLY LOWER. :smoking:

trains40 · Jun 27, 2006

looks like a 5-0 night if this is the record you go by or 5-5 which either way cashes out!!!!!!!! :103631605

:toast:

:money8: :thumbsup2: :money:

slcgreg · Jun 28, 2006

6/27 Final

5-5, +4.2 Units
Thats The Best We Could Hope For!!!

rounders · Jun 28, 2006

Just curious....will the same book allow you to make both bets consistently without suspending your acct?

slcgreg · Jun 28, 2006

I hope so, can't imagine why not!

rounders · Jun 28, 2006

I've been reading the orginal thread on this and I really think this may work. My concern was that a book would not like if you did this daily for a couple of weeks. Are you doing this at the same book or 2 books.

slcgreg · Jun 28, 2006

6/28

games to look at:
ATL/NY
WASH/TOR
SEA/AZ
COL/ANA
TB/FL
OAK/SD
PHIL/BAL gm 2
TEX/SF
i WILL PLAY ALL THESE, WILL POST LINES WHEN I PLACE THE BETS
I AM ALSO WAITING TO SEE LINES FOR MIL/CHC, IT IS A MAYBE.

slcgreg · Jun 28, 2006

rounders said:
I've been reading the orginal thread on this and I really think this may work. My concern was that a book would not like if you did this daily for a couple of weeks. Are you doing this at the same book or 2 books.

I am using the same book, BODOG, for both. Would like to use Pinacle but have pissed away most of my money there, don't have enough cash there to cover the outlay. Sad, huh?

bznofx19 · Jun 28, 2006

rounders said:
Just curious....will the same book allow you to make both bets consistently without suspending your acct?

of course they will allow this!

it is essentially a "will either team win by 2 runs or more prop"...the odds are essentially calculated for this as well. the trick would be to pick the games in which there would be value in doing so.

another form of this, someone might want to look into, is the 1st half lines at Pinny. if you bet both teams @ -0.5 runs it is essentially a "will either team be leading after 5 innings"

example:

NYM -.5 +121
Bos -.5 +129

only 3 games were tied after 5 innings the past 4 days...2 at Comerica and 1 at PetCo, both pitchers parks...it might not be too difficult to pick the best games for THIS idea.

trains40 · Jun 28, 2006

THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THE FIRST 5 IS YOU HAVE JUICE ON THAT AND NOT POSITIVE MONEY ON BOTH SIDES. SO YOU COULD REALLY GET BURNED IF THE FAVORITE DOESNT COME IN. I THINK THATS A LITTLE MORE TRICKIER. AS FOR THE BOOK NOT ALLOWING THIS OR NOT LIKING IT AFTER A WEEK OR SO IS CRAZY. THEY WOULDNT LET YOU PLAY THEM IF THAT WAS THE CASE. :toast: :toast: :money8:

rounders · Jun 28, 2006

Thanks. I just recently joined this site from one of my friends. So I am a virgin when it comes to sports gambling. In fact, my first bet was yesterday taking Spain in the 1st half (thought it was a winner). I keep reading about how various books throw you out when they see you have some kind of advantage. I thought this maybe one of those situations. But obviously, it sounds like you can do this type of wagers at the same book.

Also, it looks like 3 different posters had similar ideas but with a bit of a variation:

1) bet both sides -1.5
2) bet both sides -0.5 for the 1st 5 innings
3) bet dog on ML and fav -1.5 in the same game

Of these methods, which one do you think will work best in the long run?

trains40 · Jun 28, 2006

Number 1 On Your List Or Maybe Number 3. It Is Just A Matter Of Eliminating The 1 Run Games If Possible. And Trust Me If Books Didnt Want You Doing This They Would Not Let You Bet It. It Would Give An Error Code Or Something. Gl :103631605

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

>>Of these methods, which one do you think will work best in the long run?<<

Rounders, maybe none of them! That is why we are carefully tracking these and trying different systems/ideas out.

However, I think that there may be a way to profit from this.

slcgreg and trains40, great night last night!! Don't blow your whole wad on the idea just yet as last night had 13 games with more than one run final and 1 game with a one run final. That won't be the expected outcome each day.

Personally, I am leaning toward playing maybe just one or two games...cherry pick. BUT, when I am looking at the day's card so many games jump out that should be decided by more than one run!!

Anywho, I'm glad you are doing this and good luck! tulsa

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

Also

I haven't been playing mine for real $. I am going to follow the method and tweak how I choose games for a little while. Still plenty of season to go.

HOWEVER, when I do begin playing these, I will play one side at one book and the other side at another book. I do not want any one book to see me profit at this IF indeed I can. It would not be hard to split the action between two different books and they would never ever see what I am doing. I don't think they would care, but I plan to win and I'm not going to take the slightest chance of causing them to question my play. Good luck. tulsa

rounders · Jun 28, 2006

Tulsa: That was exactly why I brought up the question about same book or 2 different books. I was concerned that the book would see what I was doing and would take some kind of action on me.

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

rounders said:
Tulsa: That was exactly why I brought up the question about same book or 2 different books. I was concerned that the book would see what I was doing and would take some kind of action on me.

Well, they might not, right? But why risk it when it is so easy to avoid the problem in the first place. ALSO, ALSO: You will find that by line shopping you get a MUCH better deal at one shop for one side and a different shop on the other side. I've seen that these numbers for the dog -1.5 (alternative run-lines) vary WIDELY from book to book. So, maybe a better reason to split the method up between books would be to find more advantageous lines. The book with the best payout for the favorite -1.5 may very well not have a competitive payout for the dog -1.5

Good luck. tulsa