Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 WEDNESDAY June 28

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

Method 1: both -1.5
OVERALL: 4.77 units

Method 2: dog ml and fav -1.5
OVERALL: +1.85 units



WEDNESDAY
Method 1:

Tamp Bay -1.5 +228
Florida -1.5 +138

Colorado -1.5 +196
LA Angels -1.5 +159

Texas Rangers -1.5 +167
SF Giants -1.5 +173

Method 2:

Tamp Bay +140
Florida -1.5 +138

Colorado +124
LA Angels -1.5 +159

Texas Rangers +100
SF Giants -1.5 +173

rounders · Jun 28, 2006

WOW. Method 2 truly cuts into the profit for a dog

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

Cheesit, you're right, it does look that way. However, the Method two was after one day and the other method is over four or five days! Sorry for the confusion. I'm going to leave it as if one method is better than another it will show up and a difference of three units will not matter. Good luck. tulsa

NJCapper · Jun 28, 2006

Tulsa, I just copied and pasted what I was trying to say from the other thread.

Tuesday Night:

All at -1.5 runs

Houston +210
Detroit +152

Cleveland +196
St. Louis +159

Oakland +147
San Diego +210

Texas +132
San Francisco +232

Both dog and favorite -1.5 system:

Detroit +52

Cleveland +96

San Diego +110

San Francisco +132

TUESDAY NET: +3.90

OVERALL NET: 4.77 units

For example, Cleveland +196 and St. Louis +159 are you betting $100 to win $196 and $100 to win $159? If the bet is a winner, this would result in winning either $96 or $59.

I was thinking maybe you can scalp both bets--- for example with cleveland and st. louis
$106.67 on st. louis to win $169.61
$93.34 on cleveland to win $182.95

In this scenario, if the bet is a winner you are guaranteed either $76.28 if cards win or $76.27 if indians win for the same $200 wagered. Maybe I can track this personally based on all your dog and fave -1.5 system plays and see if scalping the wins would make more $$$.

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

The wins and losses on this type thing can be confusing..... I'm not sure how to do it.

Method 1: 14-3 (but the 14 don't pay 100 usually and those three mean you got your ass kicked and lost two units each time.) I'm not sure how to present the w/l or if maybe I should ignore that. If I were Mike Chad the 14-3 would be just fine I suppose. I'm not Mike Chad.

WAIT, I know what to do.

We are up 4.77 units over 17 plays. Hows that? I think it is the only way to go.

Method 2: We are up 1.85 units over 4 plays.

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

NJCapper, you are talking about using a bit of money management, right? I don't believe that it is possible to change the amounts wagered to 1.) Sum to $200 at risk and 2.) Give equal payout regardless of who wins by 2 or more runs. Is it?

If you can work on this, it would be most interesting, that is certain! Let me know if you have any other questions or find out anything interesting. Thanks for your input. tulsa

NJCapper · Jun 28, 2006

Yes, it's definitely possible... you can check my math it's the same as calculating an arbitrage by equaling the payouts on a certain amount wagered. Basically, it WILL make more money if more -1.5 favorites are winning than dogs in your system. Either way after only 17 plays it should be fairly close to your +4.77 units but I'm going to try and research this more by looking up the plays and calculating the scalp. I'll post my results in a few mins.

NJCapper · Jun 28, 2006

Hmmm... the lines aren't listed for the first 5 plays of the system. If you are tracking all your 17 plays, can you please copy and paste them all with the lines included so I can figure out the new scalped total. Thanks a bunch. :hyper:

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

NJCapper, I certainly appreciate your ideas and help.

I apologize as I only had rudimentary data on the first day (fri june 24.)

Here is how I figured it. I knew the run lines for the favorites and if the dog won then I would know that the dog made a little more on the alternative run-line than the fav's would. I was conservative and so shorted my "units won" a little.

Here is all I had to work with on that day: highlighted are the winners and the Nats/Orioles was a one run win for the Orioles

Pirates
Dodgers -1.5 +170

Nats
Orioles -1.5 +160

Brewers -1.5 +120
Royals

Rangers
Rockies -1.5 +170

Angels
Diamondbacks -1.5 +180

I'm afraid I don't understand exactly what you are doing, but that is OK. I understand your thought on making a more uniform amount on a win and I think I see that you can adjust the at risk to 200 and yet get the same payout for each side...I think. HOWEVER....however, don't worry about whether I fully understand just yet. You do what you can to figure things out and if it doesn't work we'll work on other things. If it does work then you can explain it to me then and I will guarantee that I can understand...

I just need to know one thing: What lines/information do you need from me each day on the games I play so that you can figure out what you are trying to figure out? I will include whatever you need in my daily post...

Thanks for the input and good luck. tulsa

NJCapper · Jun 28, 2006

Hey Tulsa, thanks for your response.. no problem about the first day data all that's really needed is the -1.5 fave runline and -1.5 alt dog runline on your games and then I can figure it out from there

. If you like, I can post the daily results of your games using my scalping system on your thread and then we can compare the units won or lost. Let me know what you think.

trains40 · Jun 28, 2006

Tulsa glad to see this post on this stuff. To me I just check a few things and the best scenarios I can find for this is to bet the games where the line is around a pickem for the m/l.

Example: Today Phill +105
Baltimore -115

This line is close enough. Needs to range from -101 to -119 or so.

Their are 3 more tonight

Mets -102
Boston -108

Oakland -109
san Diego -101

Texas -101
San Fran -109
On these you get real good money back on the -1.5 somewhere around +185 or better. This is what I have tracked. Just some more input here.

:toast: :103631605

FullyEclipsed · Jun 28, 2006

Tulsa,

I am going to jump on board with a couple of these plays tonight on your method 1. I like the idea and will give it a go.

NJCapper,

I think you have a good point as well on this to get an even payout regardless of which team covers. That way if it hits a streak of all favs winning. The total of dollars won will stay consistant.

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

>>>If you like, I can post the daily results of your games using my scalping system on your thread <<<

NJCapper, you are absolutely welcome to post up your ideas and results in here with me each day. I will have a new thread each day to keep it easy to access. Good luck and thanks.

My plays are way at the top....here they are again:

Method 1: both -1.5
OVERALL: +4.77 units over 17 plays

Method 2: dog ml and fav -1.5
OVERALL: +1.85 units over 4 plays



WEDNESDAY
Method 1:

Tamp Bay -1.5 +228
Florida -1.5 +138

Colorado -1.5 +196
LA Angels -1.5 +159

Texas Rangers -1.5 +167
SF Giants -1.5 +173

Method 2:

Tamp Bay +140
Florida -1.5 +138

Colorado +124
LA Angels -1.5 +159

Texas Rangers +100
SF Giants -1.5 +173

trains40 · Jun 28, 2006

Tulsa If You Dont Mind I Would Love To Post My Plays In You Thread If Thats Ok? Thanks........ :103631605

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

trains40, POST 'em UP!! Just keep track of how you are doing so that we can all learn from this. I am absolutely fired up to see guys willing to give an effort to come up with ideas and then track results.

Good luck and let's find a way to kick the man in the pants 'til money falls out!! Then let's figure out a better way to pick money up off of the ground!

tulsa

trains40 · Jun 28, 2006

HERE ARE MY PLAYS TODAY THE FIRST 2 I WON'T INCLUDE IN MY RECORD CAUSE THEY HAVE ALREADY STARTED BUT ANYONE FEEL FREE TO JUMP ON THESE NEXT ONES. AGAIN THANKS TULSA FOR ALL YOU HARD WORK HERE. :103631605

BALTIMORE +185 -1.5
PHILLY +175 -1.5 GAME 1

BOSTON +180 -1.5
NEW YORK +155 -1.5

OAKLAND +150 -1.5 BEST BET
SAN DIEGO +195 -1.5

TEXAS +160 -1.5 BEST BET
SAN FRAN +175 -1.5

COLORADO +190 -1.5 THIS ONE JUST HAD GOOD VALUE!
LOS ANGELES ANGELS +150 -1.5

ALL OF THESE HAD VERY GOOD VALUE. GL :toast:

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

Trains, where are you getting your lines? I'm getting mine at some place called MegaSB.com and I've never even heard of them until someone mentioned (in that long initial thread about this) I could easily find alternative run lines there. I don't know if they are a good book or not, but I use their lines.

Does anyone think MegaSB is reputable? I would like to use a reputable place to get my alternative run lines for the dog. tulsa

trains40 · Jun 28, 2006

Tulsa said:
Trains, where are you getting your lines? I'm getting mine at some place called MegaSB.com and I've never even heard of them until someone mentioned (in that long initial thread about this) I could easily find alternative run lines there. I don't know if they are a good book or not, but I use their lines.

Does anyone think MegaSB is reputable? I would like to use a reputable place to get my alternative run lines for the dog. tulsa

5 DIMES BABY THEY ARE THE PLACE I LIKE PLAYING THE MOST.

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

Amsterdam, now you have given me something to work with!

I take back all the evil comments I made. Let us try to get along.

NOW, in answer to your question about my ability to do math at a high school level... I have a bachelors in math, 15 hours toward a masters in math (now dead in the water as I have passed the time I could complete the degree and the hours dropped from my transcript)

I have a masters in economics. Now, you don't have to believe me as this is a forum where people post shit that may not be true all the time. These things are true, however, take them or leave them.

I also do this FULL time for a living and do very well at it! Take it or leave it.

Now, I am not saying that one should play ALL games at the -1.5. I believe that there are patterns to many things (my background in math and economics leads me to this.) I do not believe that wagering on games willy-nilly for this system is a good idea at all. I also do not know if it will work the way I am attempting it. I am not advocating anyone place REAL dollars on this at all. This is a trial on my part! It may not work and you may be right. HOWEVER, maybe tulsa sees a way to choose games that will render more times than 90% games that end with a more than one run final spread. Maybe.

Then it will work. Then this is cash in my and even your pocket. However, you may be right and I am happy to say so when the time comes. This is just a trial for me. I will tell you one thing, though: I have learned there are patterns before us that you wouldn't ever imagine (it is hard for me to imagine them and I've seen them) and many of them are in places that no one would expect.

Thank you for letting me know what you meant by "this is a joke" I feel that I have replied to your posts as best I can at this time. 'We shall see' is my attitude. Good luck. tulsa

Tulsa · Jun 28, 2006

Trains...I am no mod here! But I will take that as a very nice compliment.

I would like to add one more thing: I have found so many winners for games from others on this site that I do not mind sharing ideas and thoughts EVEN IF they are the MILLION DOLLAR TREASURE that if everyone uses will ruin it.

Two reasons why:
1.) You can give MOST (nearly all) people a strategy that wins 65% of the time at 10% vigorish AND they will lose money.
2.) Once it is clear that this works well (if it does and it may not) then this thread will be closed up and I will speak of it no more and I will use the strategy to make money.

I still enjoy getting input and help from people on these ideas. I also like to give back to the boards here. It will not ruin the market if it is a good idea, I guarantee it. People just aren't able to discern well and you can put the truth right in front of folks and they still won't see it.

tulsa