Dog -1.5 & Fav -1.5 THURSDAY June 29

Tulsa · Jun 29, 2006

WEDNESDAY'S Results
Method 1:

Tamp Bay +128

Colorado +96

SF Giants +73

Method 2:

Tamp Bay +40

Colorado +24

SF Giants +73

Method 1: both -1.5
OVERALL: +7.74 units over 20 plays
Rate of Return: 7.74 units/40 units risked = 19%

Method 2: dog ml and fav -1.5
OVERALL: +3.22 units over 7 plays
Rate of Return: 3.22 units/14 units risked = 23%

Tulsa · Jun 29, 2006

There will be some plays for today, I'm sure....

Remember, please be careful and wait until we see if this is a working method. I am not wagering any money on these at all and I hope none of you are.

Let us examine something from yesterday as an example: There were three one run finals out of sixteen games. 3/16 is 19% and we should expect more along the lines of 5 out of 16. When only three games have a one-run final out of sixteen, a dart thrower has great odds of coming up with three games that don't end in a one run final. I'm telling you that I am pleased that we are doing well so far, but nothing is ever this easy.

Good luck today in your plays. tulsa

winbet · Jun 29, 2006

Tulsa,
I forgot to get back to you, glad to see your being sensible and not betting. The reality is, the only way possible of making a profit from this is selective picks. One could argue if your good enough to make good selections then just play normally, however no matter. As soon as you make your plays, I will try to give some input as to the value of the odds compared to the real chances, as always good luck. :drink:

Tulsa · Jun 29, 2006

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=page><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">trains40</TD><TD class=smallfont align=right>06-29-2006 10:51 AM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>RECORD 3-0 OR (3-3) +2.3 UNITS

TODAYS PLAY

OAKLAND +170 -1.5
SAN DIEGO +190 -1.5

ONE UNIT ON EACH........................

GL.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

rounders · Jun 29, 2006

Hope it is OK for me to put my plays in here. Yesterday I went hit Det/Hou and loss on the NYY/ATL. Played BO/NYM and SF/TX but did not post.

SF -1.5 $100-$136
TX -1.5 $100-$242

SD -1.5 $100-$190
OA -1.5 $100-$210

NY -1.5 $100-$221
BO -1.5 $100-$136

BA -1.5 $100-$140
PH -1.5 $100-$192

AZ -1.5 $100-$236
SE -1.5 $100-$114

trains40 · Jun 29, 2006

rounders said:
Hope it is OK for me to put my plays in here. Yesterday I went hit Det/Hou and loss on the NYY/ATL. Played BO/NYM and SF/TX but did not post.

SF -1.5 $100-$136
TX -1.5 $100-$242

SD -1.5 $100-$190
OA -1.5 $100-$210

NY -1.5 $100-$221
BO -1.5 $100-$136

BA -1.5 $100-$140
PH -1.5 $100-$192

AZ -1.5 $100-$236
SE -1.5 $100-$114

THOSE ARE THE ONE'S I WAS TAKING A LOOK AT EXCEPT THE SEATTLE GAME.
I LOOK FOR A MINIMUM AMOUNT ON BOTH SIDES. HAS TO BE +145 OR BETTER IMO, BUT MAYBE THE 135 OR BETTER WORKS ALSO. JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THOSE. GL ROUNDER.

trains40 · Jun 29, 2006

Tulsa said:
<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=page><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">trains40</TD><TD class=smallfont align=right>06-29-2006 10:51 AM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>RECORD 3-0 OR (3-3) +2.3 UNITS

TODAYS PLAY

OAKLAND +170 -1.5
SAN DIEGO +190 -1.5

ONE UNIT ON EACH........................

GL.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

THANKS FOR POSTING THAT OVER HERE TULSA :103631605

Tulsa · Jun 29, 2006

Trains, no problem. Good luck! tulsa

Tulsa · Jun 29, 2006

Thursday Plays

winbet, any input you have is very welcome. Thanks for taking part.

Method 1: both -1.5

Texas Rangers -1.5 +240
SF Giants -1.5 +130

Oakland Athletics -1.5 +170
SD Padres -1.5 +180

Method 2: dog ml and fav -1.5

Texas Rangers +155
SF Giants -1.5 +130

Oakland Athletics +105
SD Padres -1.5 +180

Lines are from 5Dimes

Remember, this is just a trial for me right now. I want to see if I can do this and do it well. If I were you, I wouldn't wager real $ on this just yet. Good luck on all your plays. tulsa

rounders · Jun 29, 2006

Correct me if I am wrong, but this system would probably NOT work or appeal to someone who is trying to win alot of money quickly. I think this system will work if you are looking to just slowly and gradually increase your bankroll by chipping away. Do you agree?

Tulsa · Jun 29, 2006

Rounders, I'm not sure I understand. Tell me what form of wagering wins a lot of money quickly and I will be able to tell you how this method might relate.... tulsa

trains40 · Jun 29, 2006

rounders said:
Correct me if I am wrong, but this system would probably NOT work or appeal to someone who is trying to win alot of money quickly. I think this system will work if you are looking to just slowly and gradually increase your bankroll by chipping away. Do you agree?

I AGREE WITH TULSA DEPENDS ON THE DEGREE OF YOUR PLAYS. SAY FOR INSTANCE YOU PUT 1000 TO WIN 1900 ON ONE SIDE AND 1000 TO WIN 1800 ON THE OTHER SIDE THEN ID SAY THAT'S FAIRLY GOOD. BUT IF YOU ARE REFERRING TO ONLY WAGER 25 TO 100 ON EACH SIDE THEN I WOULD SAY YOU ARE CHIPPING AWAY. BUT AS ALWAYS SAY I'D RATHER BE COLLECTING THEN PAYING THE MAN. CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG.

arty:

winbet · Jun 29, 2006

First let me say I hate being negative but to me this forum is all about learning and too often threads like this are shot down without anyone getting something positive out of it. So maybe its best I chime now and again and pose questions to you.

Regardless of how this is put down betwise, the bottom line is you are betting the score doesnt land on One or your acting as a Book and taking a correct score bet on every One differential.

You are totally at the mercy of the books Moneyline as to the prices your betting and you have to take into account the games Total Runs.
Trains40 is the first one to spot a difference in the prices, whether He knows the significance of it or not I'm not sure, but significant it is. Basically although He has put a limit on his selections EG +145, He is veering more to a One run game the bigger the prices go and playing into the books opinion. Although that can be seen as squarish, the important thing is to know you are doing it, square bets dont nessesarily mean losers.

If one is going to do this exercise correctly then both sides must be backed to win the same amount, this takes out any hard luck story of only winning on the small number. EG

Oakland +170 = 34.5%
San Diego +190 = 37% together equalling 71.5% which is -250.

So your bet on this game is $200 @ -250 neither team wins by one. The question I put to all is, how do you know whether that is value or not? :toast:

trains40 · Jun 29, 2006

adding one game tonight

Philly +180 -1.5
Baltimore +145 -1.5

1 unit good luck!

SSI · Jun 29, 2006

ive got experience with this...... ill flat out tell you, this is a losing proposistion on the low totals..

i will chime in here and say, play only the totals of 10.5 or higher...

ill keep up with that..

1. Phil (+1.92)
Balt (+1.42)

lets see how that goes... the low totals are going to nail thos 1's at a much higher figure..

the phil/balt game is the only play today..

NJCapper · Jun 29, 2006

winbet said:
If one is going to do this exercise correctly then both sides must be backed to win the same amount, this takes out any hard luck story of only winning on the small number. EG

Oakland +170 = 34.5%
San Diego +190 = 37% together equalling 71.5% which is -250.

So your bet on this game is $200 @ -250 neither team wins by one. The question I put to all is, how do you know whether that is value or not? :toast:

That is exactly correct and what I'm trying to prove... an easy way to figure out how to win the same payout is to go to www.scalpulator.com and plug in both lines with the amount wagered.

trains40 · Jun 29, 2006

SSI said:
ive got experience with this...... ill flat out tell you, this is a losing proposistion on the low totals..

i will chime in here and say, play only the totals of 10.5 or higher...

ill keep up with that..

1. Phil (+1.92)
Balt (+1.42)

lets see how that goes... the low totals are going to nail thos 1's at a much higher figure..

the phil/balt game is the only play today..

ALL 3 I POSTED HERE YESTERDAY WERE UNDER THE 10.5 YOU ARE REFERRING TO. SO I DONT BELIEVE THIS IS CORRECT BUT IF YOU FEEL THAT WAY I UNDERSTAND GL TO YOU :toast:

ALSO TODAY'S PLAY IN SAN DIEGO IS 7.5 FYI

winbet · Jun 29, 2006

Ok, not many responses but its early. SSI has given a clue in the Total makes a difference to your chances but what He's missed is its not so much the Total itself but what The Books make of it. Imagine If you have Two Teams of equal strength and come up with a total of 7 Runs. Now you have a Team thats far superior to the other and assess that they will win 6-1. Both Totals are the same but the chances of a One run game are miles apart, so because a Total is Low doesnt mean the chances of a One run game is better, its all in the Moneyline. :toast:

SSI · Jun 29, 2006

trains, your sample size is too small... ive done this in the past....

go to covers and start at first game this season, look at all totals of 10.5 or higher and see how many were 1 run games..

Lower totals produce more 1 run games, period... not bashing, that is a fact..

trains40 · Jun 29, 2006

SSI said:
trains, your sample size is too small... ive done this in the past....

go to covers and start at first game this season, look at all totals of 10.5 or higher and see how many were 1 run games..

Lower totals produce more 1 run games, period... not bashing, that is a fact..

NOT GONNA ARGUE BUT AS LONG AS WHAT I AM DOING WORKS WHO CARES. WE ARE HERE TO PROFIT, AND IF I THINK I HAVE FOUND AN ANGLE THEN LET ME APPROACH IT THAT WAY. PEOPLE IN GENERAL HAVE A HARD TIME WITH CHANGE JUST HUMAN NATURE. IF YOU WANNA FOLLOW FINE IF NOT FINE ALSO.:drink: