Running some gambling numbers- Realistic goals (sad news, IMO)

Search

Rx Wizard
Joined
Oct 25, 2005
Messages
11,731
Tokens
With a 20k bankroll for the discusssion purpose. I threw these numbers together and it kind of saddens me, I have done this before so I knew the results.

Best case REALISITIC approach:
2 methods (quality over quanity or quanity over quality)

Quality (highly selective handicapping. This is where the bettor bets what he feel are just great plays):
3 plays a day @ $500 a play (2.5% of bankroll) and wins at a 55 pct win rate(which I beleive is borderline) for 1 month shows a net profit of around $2,000. If everything goes as planned this what you can expect on the good side and beleive me not every month goes as planned as there will be some huge streaks in there (good and bad). This will be what you hope to average out at.

or

Quanity (betting alot of so caled 53/54% plays a day.):
12 plays a day @ $200 a play (1% of bankroll) and wins at 53.5% for 1 month shows a net profit also around $2,000. If this goes well this is also what is reaslistically to be expected to win.

Not bad but alot of blood, sweat and tears for no GUARANTEE. Now I know if it was easy (which it isn't) than everyone would be winning(which if you have been paying attenion you know not to be the case this baseball season). Look at the posts from beginning of baseball season saying to follow some PROVEN cappers and you would be guaranteed the money. Well if you took that aprroach you are barely standing. I know I was up over 30 units (betting 1-2 units a game) and am close to dead even know and consider that a small but time consuming win.

Which leads me to my point. If you make $66 a day, you also make around $2,00 for the month. When you look at it this way it's almost funny how just $66 a day adds up so fast. It makes it sound so easy but it isn't.
The last couple sentences are why scalpers are the most successfull players out there. Thier $66 a day is guaranteed (though I am not sure it can be done that easily with less than 20K).

Anyone that has a bankroll (not sure alot of recreational players do) should be happy to double it each year.

Close to 90 days so far this baseball season and you would be up close to $6,000 if you made $66 a day. Slow and steady wins the race!!!!!

Not a post for scalping but just shows you it is the only guarantee there is (and that is if you don't screw up and beleive me you can and most likely will).

Not trying to start an argument, just looking at the numbers and numbers don't lie in this case
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
nice post Ice...

however, i think 57% is very possible, consistently over 43 plays per month.. at $500 per, this clears $2600 monthly, against a (-1.10) spread...

come football and hoops, thats where i will be.. and a (-1.05) spread will make it better..
 

Rx Wizard
Joined
Oct 25, 2005
Messages
11,731
Tokens
SSI said:
nice post Ice...

however, i think 57% is very possible, consistently over 43 plays per month.. at $500 per, this clears $2600 monthly, against a (-1.10) spread...

come football and hoops, thats where i will be.. and a (-1.05) spread will make it better..

I know we have had this discussion in the past, SSI. But eventually 43 plays become 1,000 plays and I find it hard to beleive that anyone will come in at 57%(I did hit 56% over 650 plays last cbb season my best ever). Either or this is no guarantee and you coule EASILY lose.

Scalpers are guaranteed. The same money as a 55% player. But there's is guaranteed. I wish I had patience!!!
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
Ice, i totally agree about the scalping... but i simply dont have the time and do not want the hassles of dealing with all those books, especially the shady ones..

I honestly think that i can hit 57% over 43 plays a month, very consistently. im talking about football and hoops now...... and all this requires of me, is around 1 hour of work daily.. so 30hrs for $3000, $100 per hr, ill take that... especially doing something that i enjoy...
 

Rx Wizard
Joined
Oct 25, 2005
Messages
11,731
Tokens
SSI,
I know you feel 57% can be done. I know one thing you do have the passion for it. Good luck trying, I do wish you the best:toast:
 

Rx Wizard
Joined
Oct 25, 2005
Messages
11,731
Tokens
SSI said:
Ice, i totally agree about the scalping... but i simply dont have the time and do not want the hassles of dealing with all those books, especially the shady ones..

I honestly think that i can hit 57% over 43 plays a month, very consistently. im talking about football and hoops now...... and all this requires of me, is around 1 hour of work daily.. so 30hrs for $3000, $100 per hr, ill take that... especially doing something that i enjoy...

you hit the nail on the head about scalping. After 90 days looking back I wished I would have, as i have spent a ton of time for a break even season, could be worse I guess.

That is my goal arond 2k a month, would be great. Just wished I could do it. It's all about trading your time for money and scalping takes alot of both.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Messages
7,267
Tokens
Iceman

Nice post.

Your post makes it clear that one must have a HUGE bankroll to play that 1-2% thingy that you guys are always talking about.
This is exactly what i was trying to tell you once before. Sometimes one must step up to the plate and bet something, naturally you HAVE to win those type wagers.
Baseball is without a doubt the toughest of ALL sports for me and many more that i have had the pleaure of knowing.
College football, the College basketball are by FAR the most profitable of all for me and those that i talk to.
Another thing that it took me years to realize is that one is much, much better off sticking to ONE conference.
Those Quality plays are much easier to find if you know your conferences in and outs.
ALWAYS look to the home doggies and tell yourself, if i cant have the doggie here i must pass. This piece of advise comes free of charge to the Rx brothers.
Remember that the First 4-6 weeks of ANY sport is the cream of the crop for the cappers, as the linemakers has not had enough time to get a handle on ALL those teams. After that i am sure you have noticed that they numbers become "dead right on".
1-5 units sticking to YOUR conference NO matter which one you select might be better way to attack the football.
obtw the NFL is something that a Select few can win at and ALL the rest lose too!
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
well mark that down Ice, we agree........ I beleive the scalpers are definately winners but more work comes with it...

it is an art to be able to hit 57% or higher vs a (-1.10) spread... most cant do it... the trick (for me) is to limit the games played...

what i just said, has nothing to do with baseball, that is a totally different animal..
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,125
Tokens
Don't know what the policy of sportbooks is on Scalpers but in UK it's a sure fire way of getting your account closed or restricted to silly small stakes.

Further with all the shitty Costa Carib books out there is Scalping really a safe proposition?
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
valueman said:
Don't know what the policy of sportbooks is on Scalpers but in UK it's a sure fire way of getting your account closed or restricted to silly small stakes.

Further with all the shitty Costa Carib books out there is Scalping really a safe proposition?

you mean you wouldn't trust your money to

http://www.sportsbetgamblingsportsbook.com/ ?
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
valueman said:
Don't know what the policy of sportbooks is on Scalpers but in UK it's a sure fire way of getting your account closed or restricted to silly small stakes.

Further with all the shitty Costa Carib books out there is Scalping really a safe proposition?

Value,
As you know, You and Me have been in the same Boat for many Years and its hard to convey a Bookmakers mentality to American Sports Bettors. Things thats obvious to us seem to be a problem for them. I said many times, and been ridiculed for it, that Off-shore books are no more than Traders, so as long as the Money comes in, great. The Brits are proper Books so look at Sharp Accounts as losing propositions and act accordingly.

Hope alls well with your Family :toast:
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
Joined
Dec 20, 2001
Messages
4,577
Tokens
SSI said:
Ice, i totally agree about the scalping... but i simply dont have the time and do not want the hassles of dealing with all those books, especially the shady ones..

I honestly think that i can hit 57% over 43 plays a month, very consistently. im talking about football and hoops now...... and all this requires of me, is around 1 hour of work daily.. so 30hrs for $3000, $100 per hr, ill take that... especially doing something that i enjoy...



I thought you said you could hit 60% with your method? Are you lowering your goals?
 

New member
Joined
Jun 1, 2006
Messages
255
Tokens
The question is whether it is worth the time and effort to find scalps. I tried several times comparing the books I use, I got more headaches than scalps. When I did find one, I put one side bet in, the other side moved. Instead of guaranteed $5, I had to cover for a $20 guaranteed loss. Now I would think there are books there that you can find scalps more easily, but are they safe enough? In theory, the profit is guaranteed, but in practise big risks are involved.
 

Self appointed RX World Champion Handicapper
Joined
Nov 20, 2001
Messages
15,052
Tokens
SSI said:
well mark that down Ice, we agree........ I beleive the scalpers are definately winners but more work comes with it...

it is an art to be able to hit 57% or higher vs a (-1.10) spread... most cant do it... the trick (for me) is to limit the games played...

what i just said, has nothing to do with baseball, that is a totally different animal..



i wonder if about 20 people here would be willing to put up about 500 bucks each .

they each pick 1000 games ( all - 110 or lower ) over the next year.

whoever can win 600 of them gets it all ...

this individual doesnt think their would be a winner ... not even 570 wins..
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,125
Tokens
I tried scalping for a week a few years ago in the off season for me in the UK on tennis, snooker - in fact anything 2 outcome. Made on average $40 a day and got two accounts closed which I made several thousands on betting normally in the Jumps racing season. That is an expensive price for less than $300 and was hugely time consuming.
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
world, lower the number to 500 and id take a shot at 58%.. 290-210 against a (-1.10) is very attainable..

hitman, i probably can but if you put 60% out there, it will get bashed..
 

Winning isn't everything ... it's the ONLY THING !
Joined
Dec 18, 2004
Messages
2,816
Tokens
World Number One said:
this individual doesnt think their would be a winner ... not even 570 wins..


570 doesn't seem unrealistic. imo
 

Rx Wizard
Joined
Oct 25, 2005
Messages
11,731
Tokens
I am not ever going to say 100% for sure that it can't be done but I have never seen it documented and until I do than I feel it can't. I would love to be proven wrong. It would give us small timers something to aspire to do (if it was realistic)
 

Winning isn't everything ... it's the ONLY THING !
Joined
Dec 18, 2004
Messages
2,816
Tokens
I wonder if...

Poster Jack of Hearts, (if he's still around) Rob Funk, or anyone could compile my Win/Loss record in (all sports) since becoming a member of this site.

I'd be willing to pay an individual for his/her time.

Please let me know.:103631605

Sal
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,265
Messages
13,450,069
Members
99,404
Latest member
byen17188
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com